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Royal Ascot 2018 – Saturday preview and tips

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It’s Saturday and the final day of Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips. Great tipping this week including 16/1 winner on Wednesday plus 16/1 and 6/1 and 5/1 winners on Thursday and 7/1 winner yesterday.

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo): At face value it will take an awful lot to get Natalie’s Joy, who pasted a great time when winning very impressively on her Goodwood debut, beaten here. Her time was the fastest juvenile performance on the clock since Bachir set the course record the Richmond Stakes, and it broke into the top 20 of time performances over the last decade on the clock. The form is not worth much but so impressive was she she’s still the one to beat.

However, she makes the market with two other places if she wins and it’s worth searching for something else to hit the frame. Beyond Reason ought to go close following a taking win at Kempton on her second start but she was beaten fair and square by New Winds, whose only defeat in three starts has come on a soft surface at Doncaster. She proved that wasn’t her running when carrying a sizeable penalty to victory at Haydock when back on good to firm ground and she looks overpriced to take a big hand in the finish here with 7 furlongs perhaps the only unknown.

Cardini has to be respected for the connections he represents but nothing he has done suggests he will be good enough today and he is swerved. San Donato ran into Legends Of War (7/2 for the Coventry but now goes to the July Stakes) last time, a strong debut effort given the regard in which the winner was held, and it’s an encouraging sign that he went off 7/4 for a novice stakes. He was three and a half lengths clear of the next best home and ought to improve plenty for Ascot’s stiff seven here.

Arthur Kitty was a taking winner of a Haydock maiden, but the form has been let down too many times for comfort since.

Matthieu Palussiere made his name at this meeting last season when taking the Albany with Different League and has had 20 juvenile winners this season along with a decent run from Forever In Dreams in the Queen Mary. On A Session impressed with his turn of foot at Lyon Parilly when backed like a good thing on debut and he showed an impressive attitude in the latter stages of the Prix De Puycharic at Angers. Those are the same two races that Different League won before taking the Albany and his presence here, along with the booking of Wayne Lordan, is a big sign and he is well worth watching.

Nate The Great was an impressive winner of his Novice Auction Stakes at Carlisle whilst Assie View’s Doncaster victory sowed him as a horse who will get every yard of what is a testing trip at this stage of the juvenile season.

Advice: 1 pt each/way New Winds (16/1 general), 1 pt each/way San Donato (10/1 general)

3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+): Sir Michael Stoute has had a deservedly great week and there’s little reason to oppose his Crystal Ocean. Second only to Capri in the Leger last year, his two wins this season in the Gordon Richards and Aston Park Stakes suggests he’s ready to get even better and he towers over the field. Barsanti, second in this last year, scored a nice listed win on his return but that form has been let down since and he needs more still.

Idaho won this last year and has been very busy since. His chance relies on whether he has recovered from his fourth in the Coronation Cup when the ground went well against him, but even at his best he faces a task to overturn Crystal Ocean. Cliffs Of Moher hasn’t progressed as hoped and this is a quick return after the Prince Of Wales’ on Wednesday. Red Verdon, a versatile five year old, looks overmatched.

Advice: No bet.

3.40 – 5f Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo): Really competitive fare as expected to spice up the Saturday card. Wesley Ward had his 10th winner at the meeting when Shang Shang Shang took the Norfolk and it’s no surprise he has the favourite in the Windsor Castle, a race that started his love affair with the meeting. Ward has won this race twice before and Moonlight Romance followed home Thursday’s Norfolk Stakes winner at Keeneland in April before winning by over five lengths at Belmont Park last month so ought to be tough to catch.

It’s not impossible to catch a Ward horse though, and if one horse in this field is capable it could pay to look at the obvious in Queen Of Bermuda. William Haggas’ daughter of Exceed and Excel was beaten only by Shades Of Blue here in an extremely strong maiden and that impression was backed up when Shades Of Blue and Come On Leicester were third and fifth respectively in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.

Her wins at Thirsk and Windsor were both impressive displays and if she runs to form she must have a strong chance.

Aidan O’Brien has had three winners despite a mixed week – what many trainers would give for his results – but his juveniles have run very well, and Van Beethoven is worth giving a chance to. He was considered good enough to head to Newmarket as early as April for the Novice stakes at the Craven meeting and he impressed despite is greenness at the start. He made amends for that in good style at Naas next time out and was a hot favourite to beat Fairyland in the Marble Hill. He lost no face in finishing second given that Fairyland was third in the Albany today whilst Land Force, behind him there, was a close third in the Norfolk. This trip is a potential question mark but as a sharper horse now the start hopefully won’t be a problem and he will have bags of pace to run into here.

Mutawaffer’s Goodwood form has been franked after a promising debut here and he rates a big threat, as does Dom Carlos, who made all in fine style at the Curragh just 15 days ago. He’s open to much further progress now he’s got the hang of things. There are lots of other contenders but Mathieu Plaussiere’s juveniles this season have been deeply impressive in France and both Junius Brutus and Rolling King need serious respect.

Rolling King ought to be suited by dropping back to five furlongs on quick ground, having been outstayed at Chantilly over 6 furlongs on soft ground, and he was an impressive winner on debut from two other stablemates. Junius Brutus, purchased by King Power Racing for £300,000 at Goffs on Monday, has won his first two runs easily and beat La Feve easier than stablemate Rolling King managed to do.

Kessaar might well have won on her debut at York had he not been hampered and it’s significant that John Gosden sees fit to run him here with Frankie Dettori on board. He is one of many eyecatchers along with Chapelli and Solider’s Call.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Queen Of Bermuda (7/1 general), 1 pt each/way Van Beethoven (9/1 general)

4.20 – 6f Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): Another fantastic race and a great way to end the week. It has been a long time since an Australian win in this race, but Redkirk Warrior has proven himself a sprinter out of the top drawer in Australia and can strike a blow for those down under. He has been transformed by the Hayes into a top-class sprinter and took his place at he Australian top table with a pair of Group 1 wins earlier in the year. The first came in the Lighting Stakes, when he came from last to first to nail the brilliant Redzel – the country’s then top sprinter and a winner of the richest sprint in the world, The Everest – on the line, and he then stretched out an extra furlong to take the Newmarket Handicap, having made all on the standside. He carried top weight that day, so produced an arguable career best to hold off a top-class field. He gave 13lbs to Merchant Navy that day, form which puts him right in the mix even through a domestic viewpoint. The worry for him is this stiff finish but otherwise all looks set fair.

Merchant Navy, winner of five of his eight races in Australia for Aaron Purcell, took the Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington despite an awful passage and was coming with a wet sail in the Newmarket handicap to do the same. He is 13lbs worse off with Redkirk Warrior, but his move to Ballydoyle is highly likely to bring out improvement and his win in the Greenlands Stakes when giving a penalty to the extremely solid yardsticks of Spirit Of Valor and Brando.

Harry Angel, a brilliant winner of the July and Sprint Cups, is 0-4 here but there has been no shame in those defeats and his best effort on this track came at this meeting he pushed Caravaggio to the very limit last year. He was set alight by Intelelgnece Cross on the front end that day that day and will need to be calmer here but sets a high standard and won the Duke Of York doing a hack canter to show his wellbeing. The key for him will be the pace on the front end.

The Tin Man won this last year and was a good third in the Sprint Cup but this will take a lot more winning here although his latest win against D’Bai was a promising reappearance. Librisa Breeze beat a number of these contenders when taking the Champions Day sprint and was badly hampered when fourth in this last year. He goes on all ground but the softer the better for him and a pace burnup would be ideal.

Bound For Nowhere came into this last year with just two runs to his name but he ran a huge race to be fourth at the line after being cut up in his run and he has since won twice, taking the Shakertown Stakes in fine style as a warmup. He appeals as the biggest threat to the front three in the market here.

City Light has massively improved from three to four and is unbeaten this year, winning over six furlongs at Chantilly and Lingfield before taking the Saint-Georges at Longchamp, and a return to six might help him.

Projection was a good third to the Tin Man but will struggle to reverse that form today and Sir Dancelot has a tough task based on his York form with Harry Angel.

Advice: 1 pt win Redkirk Warrior (4/1 general)

 5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110) :The bookmakers will be in fear of Dreamfield, the four-year-old who has won his three starts in two years, looking like a star in two of those successes. Injury robbed him of a chance to tackle group sprinters but when he romped home in a handicap on his return he left a very positive impression and the second Silent Echo (who also runs here) has since won twice and done so in good style.

However, he is 4/1, and not an attractive betting promotion with just two races to go and there’s lots of each/way potential. Tupi has had a low-key campaign in Dubai this season but he ran with a good deal of credit when fourth in two valuable 6 furlong handicaps in February and can be forgiven a disappointing effort when upped in trip to seven furlongs there. He was rated 109 after finishing third in the Prix Maurice De Gheest last August an is now rated 100, a full 9lbs lower, with his liking for 6 furlongs over this course already established after a sixth in the 2017 Diamond Jubilee. He’s also won well off a break before; the last time he returned from Dubai was when he won the Cammidge Trophy by four lengths at Doncaster.

Al Qahwa has proven to be very difficult to catch right but this season he’s put two efforts together and he’s arguably been unlucky not to win both of those, being checked in his run at Ripon and then finding his route blocked two furlongs out at Epsom in a competitive handicap that closed out Derby day. He was beginning to his full stride when having to move down to the rail two furlongs out and then was set for third and maybe more when stopped in the final furlong. This much more conventional course will help a great deal and 98 looks fair on that basis.

Victory Angel didn’t kick off from a very impressive win last April, but he began this campaign with a super eye-catching effort at Newmarket once again when thriving for the rising ground and taking fourth on the line. He ought to strip much fitter from that and this is his more realistic Ascot assessment for a good while.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Tupi (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way Tupi (16/1 general), 1 pt each/way Al Qahwa (50/1 Paddy Power, 33/1 general)

5.35 – 2m5½f (2m5f143y) Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) (4yo+): At the mercy of Thomas Hobson with no Oriental Fox but he is just 6/4 so look elsewhere for the places.

Fun Mac’s second in the Chester Cup on his reappearance looks much better after Magic Circle bolted up in the Henry II Stakes and fourth Dubawi Fifty was second in the Ascot Stakes this week. A previous second in the 2015 Ascot Stakes, he could improve from that reappearance and if staying the extra trip, will take all the beating on form.

Count Octave will have a big form chance if his stamina lasts but he’s stepping up a mile in trip and is just 6/1 and Pallasator makes more appeal as a very strong stayer, although whether he’ll be so good on fast ground, or consent to putting in a full effort, remains to be seen.

Nearly Caught isn’t as good as he used to be but he has form at 2m4f, was first past the post in the Oleander-Rennen at Hoppergarten after a good fourth in the Further Flight, and has an each/way chance.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Fun Mac (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way Nearly Caught (12/1 general)

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Royal Ascot 2018 – Friday preview and tips

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It’s Friday at Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips. Great tipping this week including 16/1 winner on Wednesday plus 16/1 and 6/1 and 5/1 winners yesterday.

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only): Aidan O’Brien has been knocking on the door with his juveniles all week and he holds an extremely strong hand here. Just Wonderful did well to bely her inexperience and win by a neck on her debut at the Curragh, and the daughter of Wading promises to improve a huge deal for that experience. Behind her were next time out winners Lethal Impact and Gossamer Wings, who was third in the Queen Mary.

It’ll take a good one to stop her but stablemate Fairyland has looked like just that in her two starts, quickening up smartly to beat a next time out winner on her debut at Naas and then taking a predictably big step forward when seeing off a talented set of rivals to take the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. Her straightforward attitude impressed and she had a convincing two and a half lengths in hand over highly rated stablemate Van Beethoven.

The third, Land Force, was beaten just half a length in the Norfolk yesterday, and fourth Gee Rex was eighth in the Coventry on Tuesday, so the form stacks up well and she can get the better of her stablemate.

Given the number of splits we’ve had this week, and the regular presence of big priced placed horses in the shakeup of juvenile races, it makes sense to have two strings to your bow. Octave needed all of Silvestre de Sousa’s strength to justify favouritism on debut but next time out she found only the startlingly impressive Calyx too good at the July course. She was beaten by an easy five lengths, but he has since won what looked a very strong Coventry and she was six lengths clear of the third. How flattered she is by her relative proximity remains to be seen but 20/1 looks too big to find out.

Main Edition has won two novice races in the style of a pattern horse and ought to be involved in the reckoning whilst Angel’s Hideaway, running for the week’s star team in the shape of Gosden and Dettori, moved clear in good style at Haydock last time on her second start. Godolphin’s La Pelosa was well backed on debut and won her maiden at Kempton smoothly from a next time out winner. She makes immediate appeal on form and potential.

Jessica Harrington’s Chicas Amigas impressed with victory at Dundalk and didn’t lose much face when second in a listed event to stablemate Servalan, who was sixth in the Queen Mary, whilst So Perfect was fourth in both aces. She can go well.

Different League made virtually all for Matthieu Palussiere in this race last season and the French handler saddles No More Regrets this time around, although she must improve from her second in the Premio Vitorio Crespi last time out. Yan Durepaire’s Bryon Bay, an impressive winner on her debut at Chantilly, makes more appeal from the raiding challenge.

Stillwater Cove wouldn’t have held on over five furlongs at Keenland when taking her Maiden Special Weight and Wesley Ward has had his juvenile winners at 5 furlongs here, so over this trip she makes little appeal.

Advice: 2 pts win Fairyland (7/2 general), 1 pt each/way Octave (20/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betway)

3.05 – 1m4f (1m3f211y) King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (3yo): Not much separates the field here. Wells Farhh Go looked a top prospect when he stole the Acomb Stakes on the line at York last season and his return in the Dante there gave encourage encouragement that he retains enough of his ability to move forward. This is the fastest ground he’ll have raced on and there might be stamina issues for some, but his overall promise makes him worth chancing.

Aidan O’Brien has had three horses beaten in Group 1’s bounce back to win at this meeting so far and it’s no surprise that Delano Roosevelt is favourite after his Epsom sixth. He deserves serious respect but perhaps Rostropovich can follow in the footsteps of Hunting Horn and improve greatly for fast ground following his French Derby effort. He was a disappointing ninth there, but today he reverts to the fast ground that he’s had just once this season, when he won the Dee Stakes in fine style. He looked as if he’d get further comfortably then although his stamina isn’t guaranteed, and on fast ground we could see plenty of improvement.

Giuseppe Garibaldi is a quickly maturing contender for Ballydoyle who has won his last two starts when getting good ground, including the King George V Cup.

Old Persian is well worth a try at this new trip and Raa Atoll has already improved a great deal for it since his taking debut so those two ought to be involved.  Elector was a staying on second to Raa Atoll at Leicester for The Queen and should improve over this trip. He makes an interesting contender for Sir Michael Stoute here.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Wells Farhh Go (9/1 general) 1 pt each/way Rostropovich (7/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

3.40 – 6f Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo): A race with sensational potential and an almost limitless list of contenders. The two against the field are Sands Of Mali and Invincible Spirit, who were separated by just noise at the end of the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last time. Sands Of Mali, a deeply impressive winner of the Gimcrack when he beat Invincible Army at York last year, didn’t fire in the Middle Park and the Breeders’ Cup, but was game as ever in the Prix Sigy when carrying a 6lbs penalty, and he made all once again in the Sandy Lane, manging to pull out a half a length on the runner up before then holding on at the line.

Invincible Army wont he Sirenia Strakes after his Gimcrack second last year and was beaten by the subsequent Greenham winner Expert Eye at the end of the season. His return in the Pavillion Skates, when he put a length and a half between him and Eqtidaar, set him up nicely for a bold bid in the Sandy Lane and he ought to enjoy returning to this track

The market has been dominated by Equilateral, the startlingly impressive 12 length winner at Doncaster. The bare form of that race might have taken a knock but the fact is that he beat a 97 rated filly last time by 8 lengths conceding 12lbs – a Group 1 performance in anyone’s book. He might be a bit short now after sustained support for the last two weeks.

Sioux Nation took the Norfolk here last year and then followed up with the Phoenix Stakes shortly afterwards. He was a Middle Park disappointment but his latest win ahead of stablemate Fleet Reveal in the Lacken Stakes (Speak In Colour and Now You’re Talking behind) when carrying a penalty showed a smart turn of foot and he will love returning back to this course and distance. Indeed, Fleet Review himself has each/way potential; This test ought to suit a great deal and so will having a pace to run at.

Emblazoned was a fine third in the Sandy Lane and behind him was Heartache and Unfortunately. If both are back to the form they showed last summer, with Heartache a fine winner of the Queen Mark and Unfortunately a game winner of the Prix Morny, they can prove to be well overpriced.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Sands Of Mali (9/1 Paddy Power, 15/2 Coral, Betway) Invincible Spirit (9/1 Paddy Power, 8/1 general)

4.20 – 1m (Rnd) Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo): A fine clash between the winners of the English, French, and Irish 1,000 Guineas. There appears to be little reason not to take Billesdon Brook’s Newmarket win at face value and that form appears to be the strongest in the race with Laurens having won the Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane since whilst Wild Illusion has finished second in the Oaks and Ribblesdale since. She put the race to bed with a very convincing turn of foot that day and whilst she will have to show that speed again against milers, she appears overpriced in relation to the Irish pair at the head of the market.

Alpha Centuari relished a return to fast ground when taking the Irish 1,000 Guineas with a sustained late charge. Just beaten in the Albany last year, she ought to be seriously involved once again. Clemmie was one of the top juveniles of last season, taking the Middle Park with a fine turn of foot from Albany winner Different League to end her campaign.

She was expected to take high rank in the Guineas but a hold up in March came at just the wrong time, meaning she had to miss the 1,000 Guineas. Her comeback in the Irish version wasn’t spectacular, but she had only just made that assignment according to her trainer and a huge improvement can be expected here which should have her on the premises.

Teppal gave David Simcock a first classic winner when quickening up best in what was a bunch finish to take the Poule D’Essai Des Pouliches. She’s only had three runs and could improve a great deal from her Pouliches win, her first of the season, although she will need to based on the bare form there. She had Coeur De Beaute just a short neck behind and she must be respected too based on that form here although had the previous advantage of a run, unlike fourth that day Capla Temptress.

Threading looked as if she’d returned to her best when beating a solid yardstick absolutely pointless at York and if that’s the case she’ll take some catching although that was a soft four runner event which didn’t test her stamina. The way Veracious won her maiden at Newmarket suggest she’s a group horse but this is some ask on her comeback.

Anna Nerium has already been beaten in the Guineas, for all she ran creditably, and all of Adorable, Aim Of Artemis, Whitefountainfairy and Nkosikazi must improve rapidly.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Billesdon Brook (13/2 Paddy Power)

5.00 – Sandringham Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap) (Str) (Class 2) (3YO only): As per usual, friendly competitive so we’ll cut straight to the chase. Ed Walker’s Argotera is an obvious favourite but she’s probably earned it after beating the easy Goodwood winner Four White Socks by over a length last time out. That was only her third start but crucially her first one on fast ground and previously she had been beaten just a length by Dathanna here. 7lbs better off with her from that run, she ought to take the beating.

It’s even more obvious to have the second favourited in the profile but the way that Qazyuna travelled through the early stages of the Pretty Polly suggested that a drop back to this trip wouldn’t suit and she was an impressive maiden winner before that when looking as if a big field handicap would be her thing in the future. Two horses have placed in the Pretty Polly as a route to Sandringham glory and the pace profile and track should see a career best.

Last but not least, Aidan O’Brien’s Broadway. She’s had just four runs and the only poor one took place on heavy ground when connections ran her over 12 furlongs. She was third in the Athasi Stakes afterwards when menacingly closing on the line – over a mile she might well have won – but she made amends with an easy win at Naas when the seconds and third both won subsequently. A frenetically run mile ought to suit.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Argotera (7/1 general), 1 pt each/way Qazyna (8/1 general), 1 pt each/wau Broadway (16/1 Bet365, 14/1 general)

5.35 – 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105): Charlie Appleby won this race with Rare Rhythm last year, a horse that had been off the track 371 days, so Eynhallow’s absence of 120 days isn’t a worry at all and he makes a lot of appeal. Twice a winner for Roger Charlton last year, he’s impressed in Dubai with two solid efforts at Meydan and could still more to give on his third run for the yard. On both those occasions he came from well back to take second behind Walton Street so the stiffer finish and stronger gallop her should be right up his street and a wide draw has not been an impediment in the past to success either.

Take a gamble on the Dubai form and back Walton Street too. The form of his last UK run has worked out brilliantly with Call To Mind now a group winner along with runner-up Count Octave.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Eyenhallow (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Walton Street (9/1 Coral, Bet Victor)

 

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Royal Ascot 2018 – Ladies Day preview and tips

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It’s Ladies Day at Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only): This doesn’t look appealing as a betting medium and if Shang Shang Shang can reach the level of most Wesley Ward raiders then she’ll take a lot of beating here. It hasn’t been the best week for her stable but if she can reproduce her comfortable win in a 12-runner maiden at Keeneland she should take some catching. The National Stakes is a key form line here and Clive Cox’s Koncheck might come out best, although Kinks didn’t get a run there and could be better running from the front. Aidan O’Brien’s juveniles by and large have all run very well so it’s interesting he sends Land Force here after his third at the Curragh in a listed event. Last time out winners The Paddocks, Rumble Inthejungle, Charming Kid, and Glory Fighter all would not be surprise winners.

Advice: 1 pt win Shang Shang Shang (9/2 Paddy Power)

3.05 – 1m2f Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo): Hunting Horn has had plenty of racing so far but his Prix du Jockey Club sixth is the best form here and if he is ahead of Key Victory (eighth that day) at the end here he ought to have a fighting chance of taking a seriously competitive race. Charlie Appleby’s Key Victory might improve a lot for a better surface and along with Dante fifth Nordic Lights and the deeply impressive maiden winner National Army.

Wadilsafa, who won decisively in a useful minor event at Newmarket over 1 mile, must improve but promises to enjoy this extra distance and he is also on the longlist along with Heron Stakes third Vintager.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Hunting Horn (6/1 general)

3.40 – 1m4f Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo): This is difficult to measure. Wild Illusion and Magic Wand’s Oaks form towers over the field and the latter particularly ought to enjoy being on a faster surface, but they have had 20 days to recover from a slog at Epsom and as Cracksman showed, that is no easy task. six winners since 1997 were being turned out again quickly after running the Investec Oaks but this year’s renewal was a particularly arduous grind. That could also count against Perfect Clarity, who was an impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial but who also couldn’t move her feet through Epsom’s ground.

Sun Maiden is an obvious choice and is a terribly exciting prospect after her romp in a Salisbury maiden by 12 lengths, but the second was a beaten favourite next time out by nine lengths as evens favourite so progression is needed if she’s going to justify favouritism and in an open race she can be taken on.

Since getting fast ground Athena has finished second in Newbury’s Oaks trial and broken her maiden at the seventh time of asking, and Aidan O’Brien’s charge could keep progressing here. This step upto 1m4f – especially around Ascot – could bring out more improvement (closely-related to Bracelet who won this race back in 2014 on her first go at the trip) and on a sound surface she’s looked like a new horse. Her second at Newbury over 10 furlongs to Sea Of Class rates as very strong form, with the winner having been a short price for the Oaks before she bypassed the race to win the Abdingon convincingly. Seven lengths back in this was Crystal Hope, who had impressively beaten the Musidora winner Give and Take and the Musidora third Highgarden (runs here) at Sandown.

Lady Of Shalott should be capable of better following her 4th to Perfect Clarity in the Lingfield Oaks Trial but she will need to improve a great deal and neither of Sarrochi or Sizzling make much appeal. Dancing Brave Bear, a staying on second in the Musidora, has place potential.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Athena (9/1 general)

4.20 – 2m4f Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): A monster renewal of the Gold Cup with three top quality stayers and Stradivarius can crown himself the staying king in a race to watch and savour. AA rapidly progressive stayer since taking the Queen’s Vase here last year, he has since won the Goodwood Cup when beating last year’s winner of this, Big Orange, and afterwards he was a fine third when dropped down in trip for the St Leger. He was beaten that day by Irish Derby winner Capri and Crystal Ocean, who has won two group contests already this season, with Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling behind him. He ended the year with a fine third on British Champions Day, behind Order Of St George when the ground was extremely testing and the race collapsed late. This faster ground will play right into his hands compared to then.

His return in the Yorkshire Cup, when he had the race won before Frankie Dettori got serious with him, was a perfect tune up and the only worry might be stamina if this is a real test over 2m4f, but he has not failed on that count so far and a small field ought to suit with only Torcedor and Mount Moriah known as front runners.

Order Of St George won this in 2016 and went down fighting in a titanic battle last year. He sets an imposing standard and has turned up quietly with a pair of easy wins in the Vintage Crop and Saval Beg Stakes. If there was to be one chink in his armour, it could be that he goes best with cut as his record shows, and today’s faster surface is a more level playing field between our selection and him.

The race is completed by the presence of Vazirabad, twice a winner of the Prix-Royal Oak and also a winner of the Prix du Cadran last year, along with a three-time winner of the Dubai Gold Cup. He comes here for the first time following a good tune up when he beat subsequent winner Marmelo in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier with plenty in hand (as he always does) and he has a tremendous each/way appeal at 6/1. Some may query his stamina and suitably for this ground but he’s a winner of the Cadran and a lack of potential pace should enhance his chances.

Desert Skyline should enjoy this step upto 2m4f, but he was beaten fair and square behind Stradivarius last time out at York even with a penalty and has also been well beaten by Order Of St George in the past.

Torcedor was a changed horse for front running tactics when spread-eagling the field in the Sagaro last time, but he won’t get such an easy time going half a mile further on fast ground and he was well beaten with fifth in this last year.

Sheikhzayedroad, Max Dynamite, Mount Moriah, and Scotland all have various amounts to prove.

Advice: Watch and enjoy

Just as difficult as the Hunt Cup yesterday but we won that so hopefully we can repeat the trick. The first two in our portfolio are hardly original choices and drawn next to eachother but they have outstanding form claims. George Of Heart was one of two horses to come from the back and take the first two positions in a 7-furlong handicap here; the winner that day was Society Rock, who would win upped in class at Goodwood and then take second in the Jersey yesterday. He looks as if he’ll improve for this extra furlong too, and if repeating the form he’s very well treated.

Curiosity made a fine start to his three year old season when going down by a neck to Symbolisation in a Newmarket handicap and that was boosted by the winner running fifth in the Irish Guineas and then the Jersey yesterday. If he steps forward he can hopefully make a late bid that is just as strong as our top choice.

Ostillo has just snuck in to add another string to Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s bow and he might prove to be their best chance. Possibly best known as the horse who was beaten by Without Parole at Yarmouth, he was eight lengths clear of the third that day and has since proven himself to be useful, making short work of the field on his handicap debut at Newmarket. A mark of 84 might have been lenient then but thankfully he’s snuck in there and Simon Crisford and Silvestre De Sousa have a terrific record together – they’ve won 25 races race together out of 84 at a very healthy 30 per cent.

Those who are greedy could do worse than to look at Aidan O’Brien’s James Cook. O’Brien won this in 2015 with War Envoy and all three of his contenders make some appeal although James Cook could be the most overpriced. A full brother to the magnificent Found, he made a good debut behind a subsequent Group 3 runner up at Naas and was then a convincing winner of a Leopardstown maiden from Latrobe, who has since finished second to group placed hunting Horn and finished second in the Gallinule Stakes. Things haven’t gone so well for him this season, but he didn’t handle Epsom on his return when he needed the run and one has to forgive his Dante run. A really strongly run stiff mile ought to bring out the best in him and it’s interesting he’s been tried at a mile now.

Bond Street and Landshark also took the eye.

Advice: 1 pt each/way George Of Heart (9/1 Bet365, 8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Curiosity (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Ostillo (16/1 general)

5.25 – 1m4f King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105): Godolphin have won three of the last four editions and had the 1-2 last year – once again they have two strong chances. Cross County gave plenty of hope that he’d improve a lot for this this trip when finishing a good second to a very smart prospect at Sandown when giving a stone to the winner. However, they might have an even stronger chance in Dubhe, who was deeply impressive on his three-year-old debut at Sandown.

It was his first time going beyond a mile and it’s no surprise that he thrived for it – he’s out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens – and if anything, a step upto this trip is overdue given how long it took for him to engage overdrive. Once he did get rolling, he put four lengths between himself and Communique, who reopposes here after winning the uber competitive London Gold Cup going away. That form has already been boosted by runners from that race finishing first and fourth at Epsom’s Derby meeting along with two runners up spots so the

Joseph O’Brien’s Downforce is the second to make the staking plan. The son of Camelot was making his debut going further than 1 mile at Navan when scythed through the field going downhill and eventually found enough to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The further he goes the better and having a proper pace to crack at will help matters too.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Dubhe (12/1 Coral), 1 pt each/way Downdraft (365 Bet365)

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Royal Ascot 2018 – Wednesday preview and tips

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It’s the second day of Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips.

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo): Wesley Ward has won this three times, with Jealous Again, Acapulco and Lady Aurelia turning this into a procession on three occasions. The lightning quick Chelsea Cloisters is sure to go close, but Clive Cox managed to beat Happy Like A Fool (went off 10/11) with Heartache and he has a similar contender in the shape of Shape of Hearts here.

Immature and noisy in the paddock before she ran here on debut, she failed to settle through the early parts of the race and then didn’t get a run until he final furlong, where she put the race to bed with a hand ride. Second Queen Of Bermuda has since won twice, once when beating colts in a novice stakes, whilst reopposing third Come On Leicester has since won impressively at Windsor. She will surely get a real gallop to run at her which should allow her to settle and on that form it’s unlikely anything will finish better here.

Aidan O’Brien’s So Perfect was an extremely taking winner on debut when she made a slow start and then came with a withering run to win a Navan maiden in April on yielding ground, but she didn’t build on that when a disappointing favourite in the Fillies’ Sprint Stakes when a failure to get a run did not cost her victory and she was well beaten behind Servalan.

One of the leading highlights of Jessica Harrington’s strong juvenile crop, she improved hand over fist to take eventually win with a deal of comfort her stablemate Chichas Amigas had a next time out winner behind when winning on debut. Severalan was beaten on debut but only behind Andre Amar, who found only Sergei Prokofiev too good on his next start. The five furlongs around this course will hopefully be fine with a strong pace.

Matthieu Palussiere and Antoine Hamelin teamed upto take the Albany with Different League last year so Forever In Dreams, an impressive winner of the Prix Du Medoc and Prix Pirette in her two starts, needs respect. So too does Kurious, who represents last year’s winning connections after winning a Sandown maiden when the runner up was in the same ownership.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Shades Of Blue (11/2 general), 1 pt each/way Servalan (10/1 general)

1m6f Queen’s Vase (Group 2) (3yo): John Gosden managed to frustrate the Aidan O’Brien battalions yesterday and he might do the same again with Stream Of Stars. He didn’t beat a whole lot here over 1m4f but it was a big step forward from his Newmarket second and he will thrive going at this distance and further in the future.

Aidan O’Brien has a fond history with this race and all of Kew Gardens, Nelson and Southern France need respect. Nelson makes the most appeal out of these, with his defeat of Kew Gardens at Leopardstown and subsequent second to Roaring Lion the best form on offer. However, his blowout in the Derrinstown is a discouraging preparation for this.

Southern France got the better of Drapers Guild (trained by Joseph O’Brien) in taking style at Navan and whilst he must improve on that, he’s far from the finished article and surely will enjoy this extra furlong today. He can confirm that form today. King’s Proctor was third in the Chester Vase and then had to five too much weight in a handicap at Newbury last time. His trainer’s record in this is so good he has to be respected and a new trip could help an awful lot.

Last but not least, don’t forget the Taghroooda half-brother Almoghared, a game winner at Chepstow a month ago who needs this trip as well. Lynwood Gold could improve a good deal for fast ground and also needs respect.

Advice: 1 pt win Stream Of Stars (7/2 general)

1m (Str) Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+): Hydrangea is the clear form choice if back to her best, and her reappearance wasn’t too disappointing given that this would likely have been the target. She will be hard to beat but even if too good there are three places to aim for and Wilamina might be the obvious place chance. She was a clear best of the rest when behind Whueida on her return in the Dhalia and whilst that race might not have that much depth to it, she had the 1,000 Guineas seventh and Free Handicap winner Anna Nerium beaten there in what was another good effort. That she stays slightly further is a help to her chances here and if she’s over a hard race at Epsom then she should go well.

Tomyris was a taking winner of the Chartwell and has a low mileage whilst Urban Fox gave 7lbs and still managed to beat Tribute Act in a C&D handicap here and she could be finding a new lease of life for William Haggas who has just had her for the first time.

Promising Run has a 3lbs penalty which doesn’t help but a repeat of her Meydan form would give her a serious shot.

A really interesting contender is Arabian Hope, who was third in the Falmouth Stakes last season and then bombed out twice behind that same horse in other Group 1 races. If she’s back and ready to run to her best she could go very close, and it’s interesting that the target is the Falmouth again according to reports.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Wilhamina (8/1 general)

4.20 – 1m2f Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): If Cracksman is recovered from his slog to win the Coronation Cup then the Arc favourite and Champion Stakes winner ought to take apart this field, but he’s had just 19 days to do so. Before that close shave he’d taken apart the Ganay field in a matter of minutes and he put seven lengths between himself and Poet’s Word in last season’s Champion Stakes.

Poet’s Word has continued to improve and whilst he was well beaten behind Hawkbill in the Sheema Classic, he improved from that to take the Brigader Gerard with something in hand at Sandown in what was a fine warmup for this. He can go well once again. Cliffs Of Moher bat Cracksman in last year’s Derby and his win in the Mooresbirdge Stakes will have done him a power of good, but a Group 1 success has eluded him so far and it’s quite possible we’ve seen the best of him.

The most interesting of these horses in a race that might not be blessed with pace is Eminent, who has some very smart form last term that included a third in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was desperately disappointed on his comeback in the Huxley Stakes, for with Martyn Meade has found no excuse, but if he’s back to his best then it’s not impossible to see Oisin Murphy getting a good tactical posse which could enhance his chances.

Hawkbill’s latest run in the Coronation was a really dire performance so it has to be taken on trust that he’s back to his best here, but should that be the case then Charlie Appleby’s charge would be very interesting and he brought Blue Point back to his best as well.

Desert Encounter has been held in races won by Cracksman, Hawkbill and Poet’s Word since his Group 3 win at Newbury last September and Royal Julius looked outclassed.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Eminent (12/1 general)

5.00 – 1m (Str) Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+): As difficult a renewal as one can remember, with every one of the 32 having a realistic chance. The draw – which rewarded the near side in the Coventry in no uncertain manner – will also play a part although there’s pace drawn across the track with front runners drawn low, middle and high. Look for the best place terms in the odds – Betway and Skybet are going one fifth the odds for seven places whilst Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power are giving six. Bet365 only have five placed but they do have ¼ for place terms.

Salstonstall has given two career best efforts since being turned to handicaps by Michael Halford and so impressive was the manner of his win at the Curragh last time that a 5lbs penalty if anything, looks lenient and with fast ground perhaps bringing out more improvement he has enough promise to make the shortlist. Second in the Irish Lincolinshire on his return, the winner has since won a Listed contest at the Curragh which suggests he can handle a mark of 103. The same connections also won this with Portage two years ago.

The last time Raising Sand ran over course and distance he was an impressive winner of the Shergar Cup Mile and since then he has run two big races in valaiuble 7 furlong handicaps, the first when he gave away the race at the start here in September and the second when third in the Challenge Cup in October. That day he was beaten by Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters off a mark of 98, form which looks red hot when you rewatch the Queen Anne in which they finished first and second today. That form might be flattering but Lord Glitters then won the Balmoral and was second in the Lincoln to a group winner whilst Accidental Agent was Listed placed before his big win today.

He made some encouraging late progress in the Victoria Cup but it was a hell of an ask on his return and he will surely strip fitter with that under his belt and a draw of 9 gives Jamie Spencer tactical options to boot.

Escobar was also making his seasonal reappearance in that race and has since found winning form for David O’Meara. He came so close to making the shortlist but Settle For Bay is the second Irish bow to our challenge.

David Marnane’s charge had a four timer at Dundalk through the winner after being upped to a mile but probably gave a career best effort so far for him when making rapid late progress to take a decent fourth at Leopardstown. Only the winner got clear of him and he has since won a Listed contest whilst the sixth has won another handicap so the form looks strong and the straight mile of Ascot and lots more pace will give him a better chance of showing his best once again.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Strensall (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Settle For Bay (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way Raising Sand (20/1 general)

5.35 – 7f Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo): Could It Be Love was only overhauled in the final furlong of the Irish 1,000 Guineas and dropping back to 7 furlongs that should suit, she will take the beating. The money has come for her though and this looks a very deep renewal of the Jersey.

James Garfield has a penalty for his success in the Greenham Stakes but it was merely one of many impressive efforts from George Scott’s charge and his juvenile and three year old form reads very well. He didn’t get home in the Guineas but was once again ahead of Expert Eye and that form doesn’t read too badly here. He was dropped in trip for the Sandy Lane Stakes, but found the 6 furlongs at Haydock too quick, which was no shame given that the first two home were previous 6f Group winners who are now amongst the lead contenders for the Commonwealth Cup. 7 furlongs here ought to suit him down to the ground and he looks big on his best form.

Headway, second in the Coventry Stakes last year, is also worth giving another chance to. He bombed out in the Guineas but previously posted an incredible performance to come from behind and take he Spring Cup. That saw him run two final furlongs of 10.8 and 11.0 seconds, even more impressive when you consider that the early pace was not strong there, and previously he’d also finished third in the Gimcrack.

Expert Eye needs to settle better if he’s to return to the form of his Vintage Stakes win and Society Power and Emaraaty, first and second in a valuable Goodwood Handicap last time, make more appeal. Symbolizations’ Irish Guineas fifth took a beating and Pursuer, a game winner of the King Charles II Stakes, is preferred whilst it’s a huge indicator that St Patrick’s Day make his Ballydoyle debut here. Glorious Journey could also run a big race now he gets a strong pace to aim at – the Prix La Rochette winner was fourth in what was a very strong Craven before his third in the Prix du Guiche.

Advice: 1 pt each/way James Garfield (16/1 Coral, Hills), 1 pt each/way Headway (10/1 general)

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Royal Ascot 2018 – Tuesday preview and tips

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It’s the opening day of Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview and tips.

2.30 – 1m (Str) Queen Anne Stakes (4yo+): A very open renewal, with Rhododendron favourite after having had several of these behind when winning the Lockinge. She ought to take the beating again, but she is more than half the price of Lightning Spear, who was beaten by a fast closing short head, and David Simcock’s charge makes strong each/way appeal. He ran badly in this last year but returned to form with his Newbury second and the form of that well-run race, with subsequent Group 1 winner Lancaster Bomber in third, looks more than trustworthy here.

Benbatl was a sensational winner of the Dubai Turf and must be considered the main threat if he runs to that level, with a three and a half-length defeat of Vivlos probably the outstanding performance in this field.

Recoletos has made a fine start to life as an older horse, with last year’s Prix du Jockey Club third winning the Prix du Muguet and the Prix d’Ispahan in fine style on his fist two starts this season. He ought to be seriously involved here and will be a popular each/way choice.

American raider Yoshida has been a notable improver in recent months and a confidence boosting success in the Hill Prince Stakes at the end of last season was backed up with a deeply impressive return in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. He had Beach Patrol, an Arlington Million winner who was second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, in second there and there’s lots to like about his chances here.

A better run can be expected from Beat The Bank after his seasonal reappearance but he might now have something to prove and Suedois would be more interesting of those at bigger prices. Everything from Brexit to the Mayans has been blamed for Limato’s flops at a mile but he’s better at shorter and Zonderland will need to step up a huge amount physically from his reappearance, which is possible. Century Dream won the Diomed Stakes impressive and has previously beaten Lockinge sixth Accidental Agent so there’s lots to like about his progressive profile for all that it still has him behind the first two there.

One to note at bigger prices too is Suedois, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He will strip fitter from his comeback in the Lockinge.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Lightning Spear (8/1 general)

3.05 – 6f Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo): The market has this as a two-horse race between Ballydoyle’s Sergei Prokofiev and John Gosden’s Calyx, both of whom have been deeply impressive this season in their three combined wins; but this looks a deep renewal at face value and The Irish Rover makes each/way appeal.

He was just a length and a quarter behind Sergei Prokofiev on their debut at Dundalk and then lost maiden stakes here at the start when he jumped in the stalls. However, connections sent him to Newbury for his first start over this trip and he was deeply impressive at Newbury in the Olympic Glory Conditions Stakes. He quickened up well but was especially impressive when he hit the rising ground, so Ascot ought to suit and he’s probably less exposed than his three runs suggest.

Cosmic Law, a wide margin winner of the Woodcote Stakes, also appeared to be in love with 6 furlongs on his first try and has to rate a huge form player here – it is a surprise that he’s so big actually given that level of form – but these four are by no means the only contenders.

Jessica Harrington has mastered both codes for a long time and she has a fascinating contender in the shape of Indigo Balance. Harrington has a strong crop of juveniles this season and his son of Invincible Spirit was a very taking winner at the Curragh on 1,000 Guineas day, moving from the back to seal the race with one turn of foot, and it wasn’t hard to be impressed with the manner in which he won. Second Decrypt has since won again, whilst the fifth Don Carlos scored too. The same maiden has a rather illustrious history – Gustav Kilmt, Churchill, Air Force Blue, and Sir John Hawkins have made debuts in that race – and that he’s being sent here is a big endorsement.

Godolphin pairing Dubai Legacy and Burj both need respect here, although the latter was behind Advertise on debut and the way that Advertise hit the line suggests he ought to improve for that experience and take a hand here.

Aidan might have won this race eight times, but Joseph has a very interesting contender in the shape of No Needs Never. He was not expected to take a big hand in proceedings at Cork at 25/1 but he ended up being unlucky to lose, he was drawn wide and trapped wide at the rear of the field. Had he been given a kinder draw he might well have won and this stiff track ought to help him should he get caught behind early. He can go well at a big price but the two Irish charges we have will do.

Advice: 1 pt each/way The Irish Rover (14/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Hills, Betway), 1 pt each/way Indigo Balance (16/1 Hills, 14/1 general)

3.40 – 5f King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+): One of the occasions of the week as Lady Aurelia, an incredible winner of this last year, faces the fellow rocket Battash, who was arguably even more impressive in the L’Abbaye last season. It is more a race to watch and savour than to bet on, although the opinion of yours truly is that a settled Battash can prove himself to be the quickest on this day.

Charlie Hills’ lightning charge must remain calm during the preliminaries, but as a more mature horse he hopefully will be able to keep his composure more than he did at York, when he was still fourth, beaten only four and a half lengths behind Marsha and Lady Aurelia. He put four lengths – and it could have been more – behind Marsha herself in what was a startlingly impressive romp at Chantilly and that he got the better of Kachy giving a penalty in the Temple Stakes despite his poor start shows his power.

Kachy is now 5lbs worse off and he might have been caught by Washington DC with another stride there. Washington DC loved nothing more than s tiff and well run five furlongs, so it’s interesting that Aidan O’Brien puts Donncha on him and Ryan Moore rides Different League, with Battle Of Jericho also taking his place. All three must find a new level although a pace burnout would suit.

Mabs Cross has improved hand over fist this season and was fourth in the Temple; She will run well, whilst Bucchero and Finsbury Square can give value seekers a good run for their money.

Advice: Watch and enjoy.

4.20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3YO only): A fascinating contest which brings together leading contenders from England, Ireland and France. Without Parole didn’t run in any of the Guineas, but the manner of his novice win at Yarmouth and then a gutsy success in the Heron Stakes have seen him cut to favourite. However, on the bare form of both those success he appears to be very short and the urge is to take him on.

Indeed, Racing Post Trophy winner Gabr might make a bold bid to reverse the form, having come from well back in the Heron.

Tip To Win, however, ran the best race of any horse here when a good second in the 2,000 Guineas, a renewal which looks stronger than it’s Irish counterpart, and he deserves to be shorter than the 5/1 on offer. He ended his juvenile season with a fine second to Elarqam in the Sommervile Stakes and since then a winter in the Middle Easy has seen connections in plenty of profit.

It also clearly helped his preparation for the European season, as he was a fantastic second in the 2,000 when he split Saxon Warrior and the subsequent Derby winner Masar at 50/1. He had Gustav Kilmt, since third in the Irish Guineas, back in sixth and a reproduction of that form would give him an excellent chance.

Romanised relished the all out gallop to take the Irish Guineas, a return to the form that he’d shown as a juvenile. The shape of this race promises to suit just as much here and he’s got to be a major player with the ground having come right too, and he can once again get the better of US Navy Flag, who went too fast at the Curragh and might be better at shorter for all that this will be the quickest ground he’s had so far this season. Threeandfourpence was held in fourth there.

Wootoon’s fourth in the Pouliches was a fine effort on just his fourth run, and improvement from that is very possible if he is able to settle today, something that should be more likely with a stronger pace in the offing. His hanging down the home straight of a right handed track (something he did in the Fontainebleau as well as the Pouliches) is a worry but he possesses a fine turn of foot and could improve for a quicker surface. He is a serious each/way player if staying straight.

Kings Shields as sixth at Longchamp and didn’t handle the soft ground when backing up quickly at Epsom. He is a very useful horse and can do better in time but it’s possible that he’s making a rather quick backup.

Chilean was a very game winner of the Prix La Force before finishing fourth in the Bet365 Classic trial and he might need further than this on soft ground.

Advice: 2 pts win Tip To Win (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Wootoon (7/1 Bet365)

Ante-Post tips on 17 May: 2 pts each/way Elarqam (8/1) – NON-RUNNER

5.00 – 2m4f (2m3f210y) Ascot Stakes (A Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100): Is it the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot? Willie Mullins has five runners, all at the top of the market, and it is significant that Ryan Moore has partnered Chelkar, who returns from 8 months off the track since winning at Chantilly. It would be no surprise if any of them won, but Whiskey Sour has by far the best flat form out of the quintet, and improved record over jumps since, and the formidable services of Christophe Soumillion to boot.

He won the Connacht Hotel (Q.R.) Handicap and then the valuable Guinness Premier Handicap in the space of a week at the Galway Festival last year, and he has since finished third in the County Hurdle whilst he ran respectably in Grade 1 novice hurdles twice during the winter, having the good fortune to inherit a prize that looked destined for re illustrious stablemates. He’s had a rise of 10lbs since his last flat win but his jumps exploits provide hope that he can be at least as good once again. This trip might improve him on the flat, too.

Tony Bloom’s Stratum, a maiden winner for John Gosden in 2016 and landed a Galway maiden hurdle, has already been well backed and needs serious respect in the market but the second best of the Mullins charges might well be Meri Devie. She was listed placed in 2013 before moving to Closutton and looked as if she’d take the highest rank over hurdles. Whilst not quite turning out to be Grade 1 level, she’s run many solid races and on only once occasion has she managed to get onto some decent ground since her maiden hurdle win and she was third in the AES Champion Hurdle. A very taking winner of a competitive handicap at Punchestown when last seen, she could relish the fast ground and Mikael Barzalona is a very eyecatching booking.

With a few more inches Coeur De Lion could well have won two decent handicaps this season including the Chester Plate (consolation race for the Chester Cup) and it would be no surprise to see him reverse Chester form with Look My Way (Mirsaale third) with a longer track and stiffer course here.

Dannyday came from nearly last to first to take an impressive win in the Northumberland Vase last season at Newcastle. A slowly run race over 1m6f at Goodwood was never really going to suit him on his comeback and it made for a good warmup here – he’s now only 4lbs higher than for his Vase success and ought to take a great deal of beating. Dubawi Fifty had three good horses ahead of him in the Chester Cup and should be respected.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Whiskey Sour (11/1 Paddy Power, 10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Meri Devie (10/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

5.25 – 1m2f Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+): The removal of the handicap has made this into a very good race for the grade and Mirage Dancer can go close, even if carrying a penalty. He’s been very promising for a long time and his thirds here last year (behind Benbatl) and at York (in the Great Voltigeur) read very well now and after a tight defeat to Barsanti he was a wide margin and he impressed when putting three and a bit lengths between him and the useful m yardstick Eugenio off a slow pace.

Laraaib, quickly made up into a pattern horse last season and returned with an eye-catching run in the Brigader Gerard Stakes when second to Poet’s Word. He ought to improve for that return and take a high tank.

Monarchs Glen, a winner of the Darley Club Stakes last season, has a penalty but is still progressing and ought to find this much more suitable than the Dubai Turf when he may well have been undercooked. Yucatan didn’t take to the Coronation Cup last time but if he’s over it then this track and trip will suit him right down to the ground and he can take a hand following his good effort in the Mooresbridge Stakes when behind Cliffs Of Moher, who has since finished second in the Sharja Bridge, an excellent 2nd in a competitive Newmarket handicap on return, can also make his presence felt although improvement is needed if he’s to take a serious hand here.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Mirage Dancer (6/1 general)

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Scottish Grand National Day 2018 – Preview and Tips

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This has been a year of some special feats in Nationals. In January through trench like ground at Chepstow the youngest jockey teamed up with the oldest horse combined to win the restaged Welsh Grand National when the 16-year-old James Bowen rode Raz De Maree to victory, the first 13-year-old horse to triumph since the war.

In the Irish Grand National four of the first five home – and the only eight to complete – were trained by Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins. Then at Aintree, just two weeks ago, Elliot and Mullins had the 1-2 with the oldest rider in the race winning on a horse who had won the Triumph Hurdle, National Hunt Chase and Cross-Country at the Cheltenham Festival beforehand – buy tickets for Cheltenham Festival 2019.

At Ayr, all those feats would be equalled if not bettered if Paul Nicholls’ Vicente managed to win the Scottish Grand National for the third year in a row today. The nine-year-old has proven to be strongest here for the past two years, first winning it as a novice when slicing through the field to a comprehensive win, and then knuckling down to get the better of Cogry in an epic duel last year.

He ran a fantastic race on his comeback at Cheltenham Festival 2018 when just going down to Perfect Candidate with the two 17 lengths clear of the third. He went up just 4lbs for that and whilst he’s failed to complete in two starts since, he unseated before the race in the Welsh National and the ground was far too sticky for him at Cheltenham in the Ultima.

Missing the Aintree Grand National on account of the ground was probably the right call to give him some extra freshness and he clearly comes alive here in April. Off a mark just 4lbs higher than last year, he has to have every chance and his chances of making history are very valid.

Trevor Hemmings missed out on a National runner when Vicente was ruled out on account of the ground and Vintage Clouds didn’t make it into the final field as a reserve, but last year’s seventh looks a better horse now and could well give Hemmings a second National should Vicente not do so.

An early mistake in this last year when he was lucky not to unseat there and then robbed him of any early rhythm but he’s since improved his jumping hand over fist and it showed with 18 length demolition job at Aintree on his return.

He ran into a graded horse next time in the shape of Clan Des Obeaux at Haydock, finishing a respectable second on what was very testing ground, and he backed that up once again with his fourth in the Welsh National. He was then a good second to Ballyoptic at Wetherby when getting just 3 lbs (today he rated off 10-12 and Ballyoptic 11-6) and his fourth in the Ultima was a fine warm up for this.

It is tough to leave the well handicapped Fagan out of the final portfolio, and both he and Ballyoptic ought to go well, whilst Doing Fine has been crying for this trip. The Young Master is fantastically well handicapped and a danger lurking at the bottom of the weights, but a last year’s second could possibly be the best third string to the bow.

Cogry didn’t put a foot wrong when beaten a neck in this last year and he then gave a good thrashing to the very useful Singlefarmpayment on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, suggesting he had a fruitful campaign ahead. However, a remarkably lacklustre showing in the Hennessy would saw an inconsistent campaign follow. It’s worth remembering that he was second in the Classic Chase to Milansbar (fifth in National) and 4 miles on good ground ought to suit him well.

Advice for Scottish Grand National 2018:

1 pt each/way Vicente (10/1 Bet365, Hills)

1 pt each/way Vintage Clouds (12/1 Bet365, 11/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Cogry (25/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)

 

Other Ayr Races

1.45 – 2m½f (2m110y) Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race): The last time Foxtail Hill got a good surface he led a good field at Cheltenham all the way and then had enough to hold off the subsequent Grand Annual winner Le Prezien. The two were 11 lengths clear at the end and now following a season of unsuitably heavy ground he’s now off a mark just 1 pound higher. He’s had a tough season but if he can get out into a rhythm in front he must have every chance.

Double W’s hasn’t been at his best for a while and was pulled up here last season but he’s now 2lbs lower than he was when winning the Red Rum last season at Aintree and perhaps a break might have rejuvenated him here in which case he is very well handicapped.

Advice: No bet

2.20 – Dawn Homes Novices’ Championship Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+): After two seasons over fences Barney Dwan has finally gotten the hang of chasing and this trip around here ought to suit him well following a fine fourth in the Close Brothers at Cheltenham. His career best efforts before have come on good ground before, notably his second to Presenting Percy in the Pertemps last year, so the good weather is a help.

Braqueur D’Or was one of the best jumpers of the summer (starting out last May) and carried his form through to the winter, which included a fine fourth in the Hennessy. 13 lengths ahead of him were Total Recall and Whisper, with the impressive Ascot winner just three lengths ahead. He might have been feeling the effects of such a run when he was beaten 12 lengths by Keeper Hill next time and if he’s refreshed then he’s well handicapped.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Barney Dwan (13/2 general), 1 pt each/way Braqueur D’Or (10/1 general)

2.55 – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+): Verdana Blue was going as well, if not better, than anything in the Betfair Hurdle before she started swimming in the ground that day but back on a decent surface she ought to take all the beating. Her three runs at Ascot are some of the best form in this company and with a clear run and hopefully a good gallop she will take the beating. Claimtakingforgan was one of the best bumper horses of last season and the last time he had anything like good ground he was seen giving an easy beating to the subsequent Grade 1 second Lostintranslation at Newbury. His fifth in the Supreme Novices’ was hugely creditable given how heavy the ground was and if he’s over it then he’s well handicapped.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Vedana Blue (11/2 general)

Advised Yesterday to Members: 1 pt each/way Claimtakinforgan (16/1 BetVictor, 14/1 general)

3.30 – 2m4½f Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2): Mia’s Storm didn’t handle the step up to Grade 1 level in the Kauto Star after an early mistake but she’s better than that, this should suit more. Alan King had a couple of fine winners yesterday as due reward for some good efforts and she can get the better of Peregrine Run, who also has been waiting for this ground but no bet as she’s a short price.

Advice: No bet.

 

 

 

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Grand National 2018 A-Z plus Aintree tips

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5.15 – 4m2½f Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (7yo+)

VERDICT: This is going to be the most testing national since 2001 when Red Marauder beat Smarty by a distance; That day 40 runners faced the starter but only four completed the course, including two that had been remounted, a practice which is now not allowed. It ought to be a special test of stamina with the ground at a premium and it looks tailor made for Baie Des Isles. She is very young for a race of this type but that she has run fine races in the Irish and Welsh Nationals in her 12 chase starts and the form of her warmup at Punchestown has been boosted out of sight with the first two heavily involved in the finish of the Irish National. Katie Walsh rides these fences beautifully, she will sluice through the surface, and she is a normally sound jumper with a crucially low racing weight to boot. Another female jockey could be in line to take a huge hand with Bryony Frost looking the perfect partner to join forces with Milansbar. The last time the two ere united they made a well contested renewal of the Classic Chase an absolute procession and two fine runs over long distances ought to have him just right for this test assuming he can lay up with the early posse.

More faith is needed for The Dutchman, who stopped like a light in the Peter Marsh but who had been rapidly progressive beforehand, especially when beating Captain Redbeard by 13 lengths in the Tommy Whittle on some of the foulest winter ground Haydock had to offer, and everything about him suggests he ought to be suited by this test. He is worth forgiving that full effort given the raw staying power he has.

Pleasant Company might not have appeared to get home but he’s better handicapped than many who return from last year and if he can put in a clean round there might be more left at the finish this time from Willie Mullins’ charge.

Blaklion ought to go very well once again although after not quite getting home last year this much more testing ground is a negative against him and the ground isn’t terrific news for Gold Cup third Anibale Fly, although both him and Total Recall need to be seriously considered. Of the favourites, it’s Tiger Roll who makes the most appeal after his fine Cheltenham win with his stamina confirmed for the job although Seeyouatmidnight will go well to boot. One mention for Raz De Maree, the hardest horse to leave

Advice: 1.5 pts each/way Baie Des Iles (18/1 Coral, 16/1 general), 1 pt each/way Milansbar (33/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Hills), 1 pt each/way The Dutchman (22/1 Paddy Power, Betfair), 1 pt each/way Pleasant Company (33/1 general)

A-Z Guide

Alpha Des Obeaux: Useful horse who took the Clonmel Oil Chase and doesn’t mind revelling in soft ground, but hasn’t repeated that effort since although he’s run fairly in top level races, including Irish Gold Cup; It is a worry that his worst effort this season came in the Many Clouds Chase on the Mildmay Course and others appeal as being in better form for all that he has ability.

Anibale Fly: Always useful as a novice chaser and has really found his stride when upped in trip this year, making a procession of what’s arguably Ireland’s best handicap chase in the Paddy Power when winning by no less than nine lengths off mark of 148 (rated 159 here; still well in); Upped in class to Irish Gold Cup and had not finished by any means when falling heavily two out and proved himself with fine third in Gold Cup, travelling well into the race and putting in very sold finishing effort for third; Normally a sound jumper and can take a front rank position with ease but never been further than the Gold Cup trip and would have preferred better ground; Still respected.

Baie Des Isles: Young horse – only seven – but plenty of experience in heavy ground staying handicap chases, including a fifth in 2017 Welsh National, race which has worked out well (winner since won Gold Cup, two other National winners come from it) and then showed impressive stamina and surefootedness to take Punchestown Grand National Trial; First two runs this season over hurdles/inadequate trip and didn’t shape badly in Punchestown National trial when the first two were then involved in finish of Irish national, also a gruelling race; If getting into rhythm, can go very well.

Blaklion: Travelled beautifully and jumped with fine panache when fourth in this last year, having been backed into favouritism, and looked the winner for much of the race too; Possibly sent on too early and then faded into fourth, although it must be a possibility he didn’t quite see it out as well as the first three; Romped home in the Becher Chase when beating The Last Samuri by nine lengths but worry that he’s given nothing away to handicapper despite 9lbs rise being fair and possible that it wasn’t wisest decision to enter him in Haydock Grand National trial when he was legless in second; Wind operation since will help and much in his favour but not sure he wants it this soft over this distance; Respected.

Bless The Wings: Plenty of form in long distance, soft ground handicap chases, having come within half a length of winning the 2012 Irish National and then been beaten only by Our Duke in last year’s edition; Took the December cross country but that his only finish in his last four starts, the big worry for him here, and he could find it difficult to come from the rear too. The ground has turned against him late and whilst he has talent, others might be better suited to this.

Buywise: Finally got that valuable win which he deserved so much when taking the Veterans’ Final at Sandown, seeing out a stiff three miles with purpose having moved through most of the field in one swoop four out; That was a fine win and a better jumper nowadays although a worry that he will lose his spot and get well behind which is hard.

Captain Redbeard: Was going quite well in the Grand Sefton when hampered badly at the 14th, where his winning chances ended; He then went and made amends in the Tommy Whittle and did so in fine style, pouring on the pressure after the last to  win by nine lengths from a next time out winner; His jumping went to pot when he was well beaten in the Peter Marsh Chase, however, and whilst hurdle win afterwards a nice warm-up a better round needed whilst doubts about just how far he does stay.

Carlingford Lough: Dual winner of the Irish Gold Cup in 2015 and 2016 and also took the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2016; Nothing wrong with his 2017 although he only made the track twice, finishing a solid fourth in the Irish Gold Cup; Hasn’t done a thing since but has dropped to 152 and does have a Grade 1 win on heavy ground, but not the best jumper and possible he’ll be out of his ground.

Chase The Spud: Disappointing in the Welsh National although he followed an extremely strong pace in some of the winter’s heaviest ground and it’s possible that the Eider came too soon for him; Previously he’d ground out the Midlands National and then taken and then a valuable handicap chase at Haydock, on soft and heavy ground respectively; The form of those races has worked out well and if he can get into a rhythm then few would be stouter stayers.

Children’s List: Doesn’t lack for talent but not particularly experienced over fences, with just the four runs so far; Form of his one chase win, a gutsy success over Edwulf, now looks a lot better but he didn’t seem to take to the Punchestown Grand National trial last time when a poor round of jumping exposed his inexperience, and this looks a year too early at least.

Delusionofgrandeur: Front running type for Sue Smith who nearly led the field all the way in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby; Chased the pace in the Edinburgh National but faded then (4m1f, soft) and then a respectable third in the final of the Challenger Series at Haydock; Goes on soft but heavy an unknown.

Double Ross: A real old hand now at the age of 12 and years of experience in big handicap chases, and many of them have been on this course, including a fifth in the Topham (2014) and Grand Sefton (2015); Was actually going well before his saddle slipped going around Canal Turn the second time round, ending his race; Been in and out since that but retains a good amount of his ability based on fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and can go well for a long way here.

Final Nudge: Enjoys a marathon trip and ran much better than most when third in the Welsh National to Raz De Maree, and he is well handicapped on that form, being 13 lengths better off for a 15 length defeat; Not so great since when fifth at Sandown but might well have finished close rin the Kim Muir had he not lost a shoe; However as a dour grinder he will keep going when many have stopped and perfect racing weight for him here; Catches the eye.

Gas Line Boy: A real stalwart of long distance chasing and put together a succession of career best efforts ass he’s gotten older, fourth in the 2017 Veterans Final at Sandown and then the Grand National Trial before a great effort when fifth in this race last year; Has been in great form since and beat the Topham winner in the Sefton (over these fences in December) and nothing not to like but faded after the last and over this more testing surface stamina a worry; Otherwise nothing not to like.

Houblon Des Obeaux: Plenty off back class and can still put up a real show in long distance handicap chases, finishing third in the Welsh and fourth in the Midlands National of last year; Perhaps this ground will suit more than the decent surface on which he was seventeenth in this last year, having been out the back from the third last; Tendency to drop himself out at the back of the last.

I Just Know: Not all that exposed as a chaser and certainly not a staying handicapper, as he showed when dominating eight other runners to win the Yorkshire National at Catterick (3m6f, soft ground). Got a hammering from handicapper for that but was well worth the win and has had a perfect permeation with a nice break before a warmup over hurdles; Sue Smith won this with Aurora’s Encoure in 2013 and not to be underestimated.

Lord Windermere: The 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner who hasn’t repeated his run that day since, and as such is winless since then; Best run in the past two years probably his effort in this last year but he was a well beaten seventh and has dropped just 3lbs, whilst he fell in the Becher Chase when last seen; Others make much more appeal.

Maggio: Found huge career best from out of nowhere for a spectacular 12 length win in the 3 mile handicap chaser on this card two years ago on the Midday course, but has never really come to close to repeating that and tough to make a form or handicapping argument for him on that basis.

Milansbar: Wasn’t going well when unseating in the Wlesh National but has been a different horse since then and his dismantling of a competitive field in the Classic Chase (Warwick, 3m5f, strong yardstick Cogry second) one of the best trials seen for this during the whole season; Liked to be to the forefront of affairs which is good in this.

Pendra: Subject of much attention in the betting for two of the last three Cheltenham Festivals and performed creditably in both, first of all fifth in the Ultima (2015) and second in the Kim Muir (2017); Reappeared in the same race this year but didn’t cut much ice; Now had his first run after a wind operation and tongue tied first time but record of tenth in 2014 Irish National and 13th in this in 2016 suggests much more needed to make it third time lucky.

Perfect Candidate: Talented and robust stayer who impressed when taking Veterans’ Chase at Exeter last January, but then came here last year and was never quite in touch before belting the 26th and being pulled up straight away; Perhaps this was just a bit quick for him on the ground and proved he’s still got it when he beat Vicente at Cheltenham in November and maybe this ground will suit him more although headgear needs to make him take interest if he’s to show his best.

Pleasant Company: Winner of the Pat Taafe and Bobbyjo Chases last season and few had travelled between the until he belted Valentines the second-time round, and from then on whilst he went well, he faded behind several of these into ninth; Hasn’t cut much ice this season but tough to expect too much on his first start in the Paddy Power and the Thyestes came in a sticky surface where not many mudlarks took to the racing that day; Races off same mark which leaves him well handicapped compared to many who take another shot here and ground shouldn’t be an issue for him; Not impossible he can improve his position with a clean round so don’t give up on him yet.

Raz De Maree: Veteran 13 year old who hasn’t always been the cleanest of jumpers but he’s amongst the stoutest of stayers and it was a strong looking renewal of the Welsh National which he won on nearly unraceable ground (race had to be rescheduled) and did so with a terrific late charge; Not his fault that he fell here last year (ducked left to avoid fallen horse and unseated rider at Bechers first time round) and only Native River beat him in the Welsh National the season before last; With clear round, must be a major player.

Regal Encore: Blows very hot and cold but when he’s hot he’s hot, as he showed when he was third only to Whisper and Total Recall in the Ladbroke Trophy and then strong at the end when taking the Keltbray Siwnley Chase at Ascot; Eighth last year when he got out of his ground but went through a load of beaten horses late; Not sure that this ground suits much more but can’t be ruled out if on a going day.

Road To Riches: Just isn’t the same horse as the graded staying chaser in the 2015/16 season, when injury contravened and he’s never looked the same horse since; In any case, ground and trip huge question marks and not one on the shortlist.

Saint Are: Aintree specialist who comes alive around here, winner of the Sefton Novice Hurdle as a novice and a fantastic chaser around here, third in the 2015 Becher before being beaten only by Many Clouds in the National of that year itself; That took place on good ground and a sound surface is key to his chances, as shown when he was pulled up next year when the ground was soft, only to bounce back with a fine third last year; Wouldn’t read into his two efforts this season but ground ruined his chances.

Seeyouatmidnight: Was a classy novice chaser who didn’t mind getting his toe stuck in and ended that season with a fantastic third in the Scottish National; Only the four runs since and feeling that this has been the target, with just the one warm-up run a satisfactory outing at Newbury in which he did nothing spectacular; Sound jumper, real fighter and will not be far away.

Shantou Flyer: Real murdlark who has strung together a potent run of runner up efforts, the latest of them coming when he was just unable to overhaul Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima at Cheltenham; Worry for him is that he didn’t get into the thick of things last year, pulling up after the 24th having gotten behind; Maybe this ground is going to be more suitable for him but others appeal more.

Tenor Nivernais: Widily impressive when a 30 length winner of the Keltbray Swinley Chase but then was beaten afterwards at Kelso and he then never got into a rhythm when he was 17th and hasn’t shown much more since; Perhaps this ground suits more but didn’t take to the race and much more is needed.

The Dutchman: Been on quite the journey this season, first running into the subsequent Grade 1 winner Sam Spinner in the Fixed Brush Hurdle and not backing that up when below par at Cheltenham, but when reverting to fences, he just went to the front and ran his opposition into the ground to dominate the Peter Marsh with the very solid Captain Redbeard 13 lengths behind; Was pulled up in the Grand National Trial but stopped quickly that day and had been travelling sweetly through the first circuit; Blood found in his nostrils that day so run and be written off and now of real interest.

The Last Samuri: Exemplary form over this fences, second in 2016 Grand National, then a close second in the Becher in December of that year; Those efforts took their toll on his handicap mark and he was 16th last year under top weight; Second, beaten by nine lengths, in this year’s Becher Chase and a fine third in the Cross Country at Cheltenham Festival 2018, but there’s a feeling his best chance has gone at the weights.

Thunder And Roses: 2015 Irish National winner although he’s not won since; That said, he was fourth in the 2017 renewal and still has ability judged on the way he was going in the Leinster National when he fell four out; Disconcerting that he fell again in the Irish National when he fell at the seventh but if he gets into a rhythm then he’s capable.

Tiger Roll: Long and rich record of success at the Cheltenham Festival, with three wins in 2014, 2017 and this year; The latter two, a dominant winner of the 4 Mile Novices’ Chase, and then a gutsy success over the Cross Country Course this season (3m6f, soft) show stamina ought not to be an issue; The main worry is how a smaller horse than most will take to these fences but the Cross Country is hardly the worst preparation and if he even half takes to this he’s got to have one of the main chances.

Total Recall: Has just had a magic season for Willie Mullins since moving from Sandra Hughes, romping home in the Munster National on his first start for the yard and then stepping up to down the RSA Chase second Whisper in the Ladbroke Trophy by a head with Regal Encore eight lengths behind; Impossible for connections to resist easy pot over hurdles at Leopardstown but wasn’t out of things when he fell in the Gold Cup for all that distance Native River and Might Bite put between themselves and the field suggests he would have been booked for third; One of the class angles into the race and lots to like, but this distance on such ground has to have a question mark for his chances; Major player.

Ucello Conti: Not a frequent winner but one of the most talented handicap chasers around and a sound jumper of these fences, sixth in 2016, fourth in the Becher Chase of that year, then in the act of putting another solid round together before he stumbled at Becher’s so badly Daryl Jacob couldn’t stay on; Second to Anibale Fly in Paddy Power is a fine effort, but worry that he had nothing extra down the finish in 2016 on soft, when beaten 37 lengths.

Valseur Lido: Was a quality top staying chaser in 2016, winning the JN Wine Champion Chase by 11 lengths and then finishing a very creditable fourth in the Lexus that Christmas; Had to take year off and whilst reappearance in Lexus this season suggested he retained all his ability, has gone wrong way since and doesn’t appear to be in love with heavy ground compared to better surfaces.

Vieux Lion Rouge: Another who’s familiar with these fences and is a very reliable handicap chaser, having showed a great attitude to win the 2017 Becher Chase and then follow up in the Betfred National Trial; Swung his way around here last year and came with his challenge around the home turn, but was getting outstayed before the last fence and eventually faded to be sixth, beaten 27 lengths; The year before on a soft surface he had weekender more and finished seventh, beaten 48 lengths, and whilst he handles this ground it appears he doesn’t handle this trp.

Virgilio: Bumped into some smart rivals as a novice and when he’s good he’s very good, as shown when a comprehensive win here in May; Not backed that up in two starts since so no surprise he’d had wind surgery; Worry that he’s never gone this far and he’d probably want the ground better too, so others preferred.

Walk In The Mill: Impossible to miss connections, with Sam Whaley-Cohen having an exemplary record around these fences and Robert Walford being a shrewd operator here; Has put up solid efforts twice when upped to 3 miles at Ascot, the best of them when third to Gold Present in a valuable handicap chase there; Didn’t take to heavy ground as well as The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh and that is a serious worry.

Warriors Tale: A nose away from taking two good handicaps this season already, and the form of his second to Gold Present at Newbury has worked out an absolute treat; Nothing wrong at all with his close second to Wakanda in the SkyBet Chase either with many solid horses in behind and this sound jumping type can take to Aintree, but this would be his first time on heavy and there’s a worry about that and his stamina too.

Tips for the other Aintree races:

1.45 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Dream Berry (15/2 Paddy Power, Betfair) NON-RUNNER
1.45 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Connetable (12/1 general0)
2.25 Aintree – 2 pts win On The Blind Side (15/8 general)
3.40 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Rocklander (8/1 general)
3.40 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Wakanda (14/1 general)

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Grand National Thursday 2018 – preview and tips

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Thank you to Community Member Geoff Handley for his thoughts on today’s card at Liverpool. Buy tickets for today, Ladies Day and Grand National Day 
1.45 Aintree : 20f
 
Brain Power ran a cracker in the Arkle at Cheltenham Festival 2018 but has raced mainly over 2m (16f ) & could be vulnerable stepping up in trip. Finian’s Oscar has never impressed me with his jumping, finished 5th at Cheltenham; ran ok but not really seeing things out. Modus is another who didn’t jump well last time at Cheltenham and could be difficult to place now. Cyrname has run well over this distance, an exuberant type and likely to set the pace here and make it a true test for Brain Power. He has scope as a chaser but seems to be better going right handed, will go close if he copes OK left handed. The big danger could be Rene’s Girl from Skelton’s yard. The mare receives an allowance, bids for a hat-trick, jumps well and looks good ew value. The outsider is the Irish challenger Calino D’Airy who ran OK at Leopardstown last time. He travelled well but found nothing at the finish but is another who has yet to run over 20f.
 
2.20 Aintree : 16f
 
Don’t underestimate Nube Negro for Skelton’s yard, 10/1 tomorrow. I backed it at Cheltenham and he ran a grand race to be third, travelling strongly throughout but steps up in class here though. The one I fancy is We Have A Dream from Nicky Henderson’s Lambourn yard, unbeaten in all 4 UK starts, impressive each time, he missed Cheltenham. Stable mate Apple’s Shakira cost punters a fortune in the Triumph where I got the impression she needs a stiffer test. This 16f Aintree course might be too much a test of speed and I’m surprised she hasn’t been stepped up to 20f. Malaya also gets the female allowance and is a good sort but I don’t think she is as good as Henderson’s duo. Paddleyourowncanoe probably needs further. There’s a rare French raider in the shape of Beau Gosse, but he was behind Malaya last time I can’t see him reversing the form. Et Moi Alors was turned over at 1/2 fav last time, disappointing and running in snatches. Gumball pulled up in the Triumph at Cheltenham but keep an eye on the Hobbs yard this week as he’s coming into some form. Irish raider Les Arceaux has some fairly useful form but disappointed last time. Another Irish raider Cristal Icon won well last time but takes a huge step up in class and she is one to watch in future handicaps.
 
2.50 Aintree : 25f
 
No bet for me here. Might Bite ran a grand race to be second in the Gold Cup but had a hard race and Gold Cup runners don’t have the best of records in this race but he take some beating if none the worse from his exertions and is a grand sort. Definitly Red also ran in the Gold Cup but was slightly outclassed but some interesting facts about this one. His chasing record in fields of 10 or less: 1221311311. In fields greater than this number it reads:- FUP6. 8 runners line up in this.
 
3.25 Aintree : 20f
 
Supasundae will be all the rage here after his good second in the Stayers at Cheltenham. He runs here tomorrow instead of the 3m on Saturday now the Champion Hurdler is absent and looks the one to beat. No doubt the ew thieves will be on My Tent Or Yours but he is probably best at 2m. Old rival The New One was 12th in the Stayers and could well fight out a place. Cyurus Darius reverted back to hurdling and won well at Kelso but surely won’t win at this level. L’Ami Serge should run well with the emphasis back more on speed after an eighth in the Stayers and is a danger to Supasudae.
 
Aintree : 4.05 21f
 
Grand Vision is the one for me in the Foxhunter’s, but he’s not much of a price I’m afraid. I backed him at Cheltenham when he was travelling so well but didn’t he quite get home. A grand looking grey who should run well and top amateur Jamie Codd is booked to ride. Wells De Lune was too free over this much longer trip in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and wasa spent force some way out. His running style is likely to prove better suited to this race. An ex-Charlie Longsdon horse, I’ve seen him schooling a few times and he always looked well. His current trainer won the race last year and is ew value at 14/1. For the first time ever I had the winners of both Foxhunters last year at 20/1 and 16/1 but sadly didn’t back Pacha Du Polder this year!
 
Aintree 4.40 : 16f
 
The Red Rum Handicap and always a good race but very competitive. I’m focusing on three here. All of a sudden David Pipe has hit some form after a poor season where he’s had just 30 winners from 341 runners. I made a note of King’s Socks at Cheltenham, who finished 5th over 20f. He was travelling strongly but had no extra close home and I think he’ll be better over today’s trip. Also in the notebook went Thienval. He was 4th in the equivalent race at Cheltenham when he probably needed better ground. Runner up in this race last year and has 3lb lower this year so will surely go close. I attended the Cheltenham preview evening at Aintree and Charlie Longsdon was very keen on Bentelimar. He didn’t get in at Cheltenham but ran the following Saturday at Kempton where he was slightly disappointing but I got the impression that the run was needed and could be ew value at 20/1, but will need a good effort to beat the above two.
 
Aintree 5.15 17f
 
The concluding mares bumper where the Irish fav Getaway Katie Mai will be hard to beat with Jamie Codd on board but not much of a price and I will be looking at others ew. Dissavril went into the notebook after she won at Market Rasen. Ex-French, she looks very pacy. At 12/1 is Dunhallow Gesture who is trained by Anthony Honeyball; an excellent trainer of bumpers. She won on her only outing for Damien Murphy and having been sold for £100,000 since, showed improved form to follow up for new connections after 8 months off. Disputed lead, travelled well, went on end of back straight, ridden early in straight, hung left around 1f out, kept on. Like I said before Philip Hobbs is hitting form so watch out for Cedar Valley who won her only race at Taunton, forging clear. Bred to stay further, she will be running on at the end. Note that a four year old won this last year.
 
Good luck everybody!
Geoff

2018 Grand National – Trainers of the top horses

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Following the incredible four day Cheltenham Festival it is now the Grand National at Aintree up next for racing fans as the flat season fast approaches. The weights have been revealed so many people are looking for the best bets from Betfair for the Grand National. One horse that could be an interesting runner for the race is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Minella Rocco. He was initially allotted 11 stone 7lb and was 5th in the weights list but following the withdrawal of Definitly Red he will be moving higher up the list. He was set to contest the Cheltenham Gold Cup but following the testing racing conditions connections removed him from the race as the horse needs better ground.

Minella Rocco is a very classy horse as shown in his 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup second. The horse has always looked tailor made for a test like the National so if the ground comes right he would have to be a leader contender for the race. Another fancied runner for the race has to be the ever reliable 10 year old The Last Samuri. The Kim Bailey trained runner is coming off the back of a highly encouraging 3rd in the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival. He also finished a 9 length second in the Becher Chase behind the 2018 National favourite Blaklion having also given him 6lb on the day. The Last Samuri boasts an impressive record in the National having looked the winner in 2016 only to be overhauled late on by the Gigginstown owned Rule the World. He is the current 16/1 third favourite for the race.

The previously mentioned Blaklion is the joint 12/1 market leader for the Aintree showpiece and must have a solid chance of success. He ran a highly encouraging fourth in last year’s race having looked the winner for much of the contest. His trainer is a duel winner of the race so will certainly have the horse ready for the big occasion. Blaklion has then gone on to put in a faultless round of jumping in the Becher Chase over the course. He has also been kept fresh for the race having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival so must be a big player for the 2018 edition of the contest. Check out the infographic below which covers the leading trainers heading in to the race and their top horses looking to enhance their National records.

Grand National Trainer Profile

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day 2018

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It’s the big day at Cheltenham Festival 2018 and I hope you enjoy my preview and tips for Gold Cup Day below. A nice 12/1 winner yesterday so let’s hope for more of the same today.

1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo):

Stormy Ireland didn’t beat much on debut at Fairyhouse but when she did it she was so impressive one could only heave been left with the impression that she was a graded horse who could go to the very top and what’s more she has a huge amount of form on testing ground. Apple’s Shakira will love the surface and has been an impressive winner of her three starts over course and distance, always engaging overdrive up the home straight in testing ground. The form of her three wins has been franked via the Fred Winter and there’s plenty to like about her chances although she is short. Mr Adjudicator and Farclas were impressive when finishing 1-2 in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown and if they handle softer conditions then they will take a huge amount of beating. Farclas’s form on testing surfaces isn’t as strong as the favourites but he has had just the two runs and this course ought to suit him a lot more than Leopardstown did. He might be an each/way bet still. Sussex Ranger now doesn’t have to deal with We Have A Dream and does handle this ground so need sot be considered whilst Redician’s big question is if he transfers his form from the flat surface of Kempton to this most testing course; should he do so, he’s going to go well.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Stormy Ireland (11/2 general), 1 pt each/way Farclas (15/2 general)

2.10 – (New) Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+):

It’s not original but Bleu Et Rouge was second only to Kalashnikov in the Betfair on awful ground and the handicapper was probably right to give him 8lbs given how well Amy Murphy’s charge ran on Tuesday. Fourth in a major Ascot handicap before that, he ought to enjoy this test and can go well. Whiskey Sour as had much less experience but the form of his fourth in the Deloitte is now looking much stronger than it initially did and it should be remembered that he won two major handicap at Galway before going back jumping. 141 might underestimate him here if he takes to the tacky surface and he makes the second most appeal out of the Mullins battalion. The third best might be another Mullins charge in the shape of Lagostovegas, whom was a good third to a smart mare in Forge Meadow on her first race after a break in February. Before that she had finished second in a Listed contest on the flat and then before that she had been third in a Cesarewitch – form which is tacking up nicely.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Bleu Et Rouge (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Lagostovegas (20/1 general)

2.50 –  (New) Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (Class 1):

Favourites don’t have the best record in this but the way Santini managed to find overdrive to deny Black Op was extremely impressive in a Grade 2 on trials day and before that he’s proven too good for Chef Des Obeaux who has franked that form by winning a Hayydock Grade and done so in fine fashion. This ground isn’t a problem for him and he gives all the appearance of being a horse who really ought to thrive the further he goes. Chris’s Dream was deeply impressive when taking the Surehaul novice hurdle and needs serious respect and the same to go to Enniscoffey Oscar who just got up in the River Don.

Dortmund Park was a disappointment in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle when Tower Bridge won but he shaped as if something was amiss the and it’s no surprise to hear that he’s had a wind operation soon afterwards. If he is back to the form that he showed when he put a decent field to the sword at Thurles, then he could be a major player here and that potential gives him the second vote ahead of Calett Mad and Ballyward.

The biggest threat is Poetic Rhythm, who took a slog of a Challow Hurdle at Newbury from Mulachy’s Hill when he did well to reel in Warren Geartrex’s charge after he got first run. His pedigree gives plenty of encouragement for staying three miles, and the visual evidence suggests that even more.

Advice: 2 pts win Santini (4/1 general), 1 pt each/way Dortmund Park (16/1 general)

3.30 – Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+): Might Bite is one of two ante post charges and extremely talented, but this new trip on testing ground is much more of a worry than any other factor in the race and he doesn’t make appeal on the day with that in mind. It’s great news for Our Duke, our other ante-post selection, and the form of his Red Mills win has been boosted out of the park by Presenting Percy in the RSA, but Jessica Harrington’s chaser has yet to put in one round of jumping that would be sufficient to win a Gold Cup and he has to be avoided. Native River, an impressive winner of the Denman Chase and this last year, has obviously claims along with Killtuagh Vic (if he stays upright), but the cards have fallen right for Definitely Red. A deeply impressive winner of the Many Clouds Chase, he made Americain look second rate in the Cotswold Chase on trials day and has been excelling himself on soft and heavy ground for a long time before this season. Rated 167, he must be bang there if repeating that run and the surface and likely strong pace will be music to the ears of Danny Cook and Brian Ellison. Total Recall is respected although he must improve whilst Edwulf’s amazing win in the Irish Gold Cup gives him solid form claims.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Definitely Red (12/1 general)

Already Advised for Members on 27 October: 1 pt each/way Our Duke (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Might Bite (8/1 general) 

4.10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase:

Burning Ambition is skinny in such a huge field bit his form, including a good second to Gilgamboa, is first class and he will take the beating with a clear round of jumping. Pacha Du Polder was a disappointment upon his return but he won this race last year with a fine ride from Bryony Frost and along with Wonderful Charm, should go very well in a bid to give Paul Nicholls another winner. Wonderful Charm might have won last year had he gotten going even a stride earlier

Foxrock’s form is first class but his travel issues are very off-putting and that leads one to think differently in terms of an each/way benefit. On The Fringe’s form figures in this contest read 43114 but he’s now 13 and vulnerable to younger legs here – Caid Du Berlais has impressed for Rose Loxton since moving from Paul Nicholls and deserves a lot of respect.

Advice: 1 pt win Burning Ambition (7/2 general), 1 pt each/way Wonderful Charm (7/1 general)

4.50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145):

Willie Mullins has a fine record in this and Deal D’Estruval would have been a contender in any of the handicaps this week following his second in the Coral Hurdle. He bumped into an even more well handicapped horse in the shape of Off You Go there but the form has been boosted by the third Grand Partner winning off 130 in a useful handicap hurdle afterwards. The form of Diese Des Bieffes’s fifth in the Lanzarote has been sensationally franked since and on that basis he is impossible to leave out of the portfolio. From that race, winner William Henry was a fine fourth in the Coral Cup, Spiritofthegames was third in the Betfair Hurdle behind Sky Bet Supreme runner-up Kalashnikov, third Red Indian was runner up at Towcester and then sixth in the Coral Cup, fourth Topofthegame won a Grade 3 handicap at Sandown and was third in the Coral Cup, the seventh Le Patriote won at Ascot and the eighth Dentley de Mee was second in the EBF Final at Sandown on Saturday.

Flawless Escape ran into the handicap snip Total Recall over hurdles in the William Fry handicap hurdle at Leopardstown and is another who must go close although Carter McKay’s third in the Moscow Flyer and the staying novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown makes him look extremely well treated off 138 and this trip and ground ought to really suit.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Deal D’Estruval (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Diese Des Bieffes (8/1 general)

5.30 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus):

Take a flyer on the veteran Dresden, who has won impressively on soft/heavy the last twice at Catterick and Wetherby. A staying on sixth last year, he is 3lbs lower now despite being in better form and he’s 2/1 over 2 miles this season. He might not be as much of a plot job as many others in this race but this big field and strong pace will really suit him and he can outrun his price. Doitforthevillage has had two good runs over hurdles as a prep for this and he’s only 4lbs higher than his last chase start – a very taking win here in November. The form of that hasn’t worked out so well but he displayed all the attributes he’ll need here and appeals as being too big in a minefield.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Dresden (33/1 general), 1 pt each/way Doitforthevillage (40/1 general)

Good luck today and for individual Gold Cup Day race previews and tips please check out our Cheltenham Festival 2018 Race Previews and Tips.

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