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Coral Welsh Grand National Preview and Tips

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Here’s my preview of Saturday’s big race at Chepstow. For regular previews and additional tips from Will and the rest of the JPFestival.com team, please join JPFestival.com as a Free or Community Member – learn more about our Membership options.

2.50 – (3m5f110y) Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+): An insanely competitive renewal with a huge amount of plausible winners here in Chepstow’s rescheduled big race of the year. The 9lbs penalty for Chase The Spud is slightly off putting but there isn’t anything else to dislike about his chances here and he’s worth backing to take the biggest prize of Fergal O’Brien’s blossoming career. The ground here is going to out the H in heavy but ‘Spud’s record on testing surfaces is very solid, with his form figures over three miles-plus on soft or heavy reading 1P2P1327511.

The last two of those performances are his two best efforts, with the first one of those coming when he took the Midlands National at Uttoxeter when he got the better of Mystree in the Midlands National (4 and a quarter miles, Uttoxeter) and then when he won on his seasonal reappearance in some of the heaviest ground seen this season at Haydock in a 3 mile handicap chase that has been traditionally strong. Always prominent, he stayed on relentlessly to put six lengths between himself and Robinsfirth, who would then go onto win well at Cheltenham next time out. That suggests that he’s worth the 9lbs rise here today and apart from that there’s precious little to fault.

Mystree was second to Chase The Spud in the Midlands National when last seen, being beaten one and a half lengths when giving weight; Before that he’d turned the Eider Chase into a war of attrition that only he could win, going away to prevail by four lengths in testing Newcastle ground that rode softer than the description that day. He now comes here fresh – a big bonus as he’s won two of his four starts for this yard with a decent gap between them all – and now getting nearly a stone from his old rival. Indeed, he beat Chase The Spud by nearly four lengths over 3m4f at Haydock (albeit getting a lot of weight) and appears a perfect Welsh National type.

Trevor Hemmings’s record in Nationals – buy tickets for Aintree Grand National meeting – is the stuff of legend and he has two strong chances in Vicente and Vintage Clouds and whilst it’s tough to pick between the pair, Vicente is just preferred. Vicente’s Scottish National win is some of the best form in this race (and deeply impressive given that he retained it) whilst his brilliant second on reappearance at Cheltenham showed that soft ground was not going to be an issue for him, so it’s hard to find too much fault with him. Indeed, considering he’s 151 today, you could say that he’s actually very well handicapped still given that he took the Scottish National off 146.

Vintage Clouds is interesting too. He was seventh in the Scottish National that Vicente won but that’s his worst effort of the past 12 months and several of his other long distance efforts are extremely taking. He was by no means beaten when falling in both the Peter Marsh and Ultima, and in between them he might have been an 18 length third in a Grand National trial, he was third to Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion, one of the best races of its type over the last year. He was long overdue to win a race, but even then his 18 length demolition job at Aintree on his return was brilliant and he ran into a graded horse next time in the shape of Clan Des Obeaux at Haydock, finishing a respectable second on what was very testing ground. This trip is a slight worry, but he ought to go very well apart from that and is at least proven on an extreme surface.

Beware The Bear’s defeat of Bishops Road in the Rehearsal Chase was a remarkable effort considering the fact Sean Bowen ‘s sadly slipped to the horse’s hind, combined with what was a very shoddy round of jumping for the level. It is highly unlikely that he is going to get away with either today, but he has serious untapped potential as a stayer and deserves serious respect here. This race has long looked ideal for Rock The Kasbah, a dour winner of the Toteexacta Handicap Chase on his return here, and he is hard to pass aside. He’s very unexposed going this far and has plenty of form on soft, although little on heavy.

Wild Wild West goes on this ground so has to be considered along with Final Nudge given he was just beaten in the Badger Ales on his return.

Bishops Road, Pobbles Bay, Raz De Maree and Milansbar can all go well.

Advice:

1 pt each/way Mystree (8/1 generally)

1 pt each/way Chase The Spud (10/1 generally)

1 pt each/way, 1 pt each/way Vicente (20/1 generally)

 

CORAL WELSH GRAND NATIONAL – Past winners and trends

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Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) 3m5½f

Chepstow – Saturday 6 January 2018

All looks good for Chepstow’s rescheduled big race this Saturday – view latest weather forecast. Here are past winners and trends from Graham Richards.

Date Going Rns Winner SP Trainer Age Wgt OR Jockey DSLR
2016 Soft 20 Native River (IRE) 11/4 Tizzard C L 6 11-12 155 Johnson R 35
2008 Soft 20 Notre Pere (FR) 16/1 Dreaper J 7 11-0 152 Lynch A E 34
2011 Soft 18 Synchronised (IRE) 5/1 O’Neill J 8 11-6 150 McCoy A P 24
2006 Soft 18 Halcon Genelardais (FR) 7/1 King A 6 11-3 147 Hutchinson W 39
2009 Heavy 18 Dream Alliance 20/1 Hobbs P J 8 10-8 142 O’Brien T 54
2003 Soft 14 Bindaree (IRE) 10/1 Twiston-Davies N 9 10-9 138 Llewellyn C 21
2013 Heavy 20 Mountainous (IRE) 20/1 Lee R 8 10-0 137 Moloney P 21
2007 Soft 18 Miko De Beauchene (FR) 13/2 Alner R H 7 10-5 135 Thornton A 27
2001 Good To Soft 13 Supreme Glory (IRE) 10/1 Murphy P G 8 10-0 134 Aspell L 26
2004 Heavy 17 Silver Birch (IRE) 10/3 Nicholls P F 7 10-5 132 Walsh R 37
2016 Heavy 20 Mountainous (IRE) 9/1 Lee K 11 10-6 132 Moore J 31
2005 Good To Soft 18 L’Aventure (FR) 14/1 Nicholls P F 6 10-4 131 Aspell L 46
2011 Heavy 20 Le Beau Bai (FR) 10/1 Lee R 8 10-1 131 Poste C 29
2000 Soft 19 Jocks Cross (IRE) 14/1 William V 9 10-4 131 Crowley B 25
2014 Heavy 19 Emperors Choice (IRE) 9/1 Williams V 7 10-8 131 Coleman A 21
2013 Heavy 17 Monbeg Dude (IRE) 10/1 Scudamore M 8 10-1 128 Carberry P 49
2002 Heavy 16 Mini Sensation (IRE) 8/1 O’Neill J 9 10-4 125 Dobbin T 20

STATS 2000-2016

THIRTEEN of the seventeen winners carried 10-9 or less

FOURTEEN of the seventeen winners OR 142 or less

TWELVE of the seventeen winners priced 10/1 or less

TEN winners aged seven or eight-years

Only ONE winner older than nine; THREE winners aged six-years

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

20-29 TEN

31-39 FIVE

40+ THREE

BRED

IRE-ELEVEN
FR-FIVE

Leopardstown Christmas Chase Day plus Limerick – Preview and Tips 

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Will hopes to keep his excellent form going on Leopardstown Christmas Chase Day plus he also takes a look at Limerick which appears to have defied the odds to go ahead.

For full access to all of Will’s tips in his Will’s Wisdom column join us for FREE or join our Community for our premium tips including our Plays and Lays. We are 3 out of 4 for our last 4 Plays with winners at 3/1, 6/1 and 9/1 – every tip this season is published here. JP

Leopardstown Christmas Chase Day

12.15 – attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle (4yo): It’s no surprise to see Francin as favourite here given is useful form in France with wins in the Prix Munet and the Prix Steiner Pons, and he has been crying out to go further on that basis for all the second of those wins was 600 days ago. This will be no cakewalk however with Flawless Escape coming here off the back of a very creditable second at Punchestown and Daybreak Boy having perhaps achieved more courtesy of his third in a 2 mile maiden hurdle at Cork.

His Cork maiden hurdle was taken by Shady Operator, who had previously run into the Graded winner Cracking Smart before then going onto finish second to Sharjah, and he had point winner Castlebreak just ahead of him. He put 15 lengths between him and the re-opposing Jetez between the last two flights, strong form given that Jetez was then no less than seven and half lengths behind Flawless Escape next time, and if he should improve on that effort, or improve for this trip, he should be involved.

Hewroesandvillians was fourth in a Fairyhouse bumper and will need to improve a good deal for that. Momus, fourth to subsequent dual bumper Felix Desjy on his only pointing start, is of interest here and Border Control has to be respected coming from Joseph O’Brien’s yard too along with Best Behaviour.

Joseph O’Brien will have a good line into the main form contenders here and it’s interesting he gives Tower Bridge a chance in more exalted company than his debut at Down Royal, where his jumping constantly cost him all chance of victory. 

12.50 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (4yo+): Fiercely competitive but perhaps the answer is a bit more obvious than the race suggests in the shape of the JP McManus pairing Mon Lino and Glenoe. Both of them ran fine races when second and third respectively to Red Devil Lads in the Proudstown Hurdle at Navan, and they are both weighted to turn around that form, which looks to be some of the most relevant in the contest.

Diedro Valls was a good second on his seasonal return in a rated novice hurdle at Fairyhouse and shaped as if he’d improve for a step up in trip, so is not surprising frontrunner at the top of the market. Asbury Ross’s tow good novice hurdle runs make a mark of 127 look very useful and he ought to go well here and so should 2m4f Fairyhouse winner Mount Hanover, coming from the red hot stable of Henry De Bromhead. 

1.20 – Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+): Sam Spinner’s dominating victory in the Long Walk Hurdle has thrown a gauntlet down in the staying division and we will learn a lot about the Irish challenge here in a fascinating renewal of the Stayers’ Hurdle. Apple’s Jade hasn’t been this far, but the way that she put Nichols Canyon to the sword in the Hatton’s Grace suggested that she’d be able to step up to 3 miles in her sleep and a repeat of that career best would give her an excellent chance of not only taking victory here, but also at Cheltenham in March should connections send her. She was never stronger than at the finish when trashing Stayers’ Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon by a spectacular nine lengths and it would be surprised to see that form reversed.

Supasundae looked like he was going to be last when coming around the home turn, but he eventually managed to stay on to take third, just a length and three quarters behind Nichols Canyon. Last season’s Coral Cup winner would likely have needed the run on a surface that doesn’t suit him nearly as much as good ground, and it’s probably not a confidence that his career best effort has come over 3 miles on good ground at Aintree. Today, with that run under his belt, he’s stepped back upto 3 miles and will be running on a better surface than the one he encountered at Fairyhouse, meaning we should see him give a run that’s something close to his best and he looks value at 13/2 to get much closer to the protagonists here.

Jezki is a previous winner of the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown but he doesn’t look the horse that he once was although this is a far more suitable assignment than going up against Faugheen. Bapaume was one of the leading juvenile hurdlers of last year, taking victory at the Punchestown Festival and then finishing a good second at Auteuil in the Prix Alain du Breil. He stayed on very wrll on both occasions so going further should help matters although this trip is still a slight question mark and this is a daunting reappearance after 200 days off. Augusta Kate was well beaten in the Hatton’s Grace when her jumping let her down among other things and Lieutenant Colonel’s not the same horse as the one who won this three years ago. 

1.50 – Irish Daily Star Christmas Novice Handicap Hurdle (4yo+): A select few of these make appeal but Low Sun’s latest effort on desperately heavy ground can surely be forgiven and on the basis of his first win he’d have to be given a fair each/way chance here. His Bellewstown defeat of Artful Artist was backed up when the latter went and finished fourth in a Premier Handicap afterwards and he was never going a yard last time. Both the potential that he and Wings On The Green (fourth behind three winners last time) bring here makes much more appeal than the handicap form that the likes of Ale Ambrosio and Like An Open Book bring to the table here, although it is not a race for heavy stakes.

2.25 – Ballymaloe Foods INH Flat Race (4-6yo):  A cracking bumper which should be prime notebook, if not betting, material. Voix Des Tiep’s close second to Someday here back in February has worked out very strong and he sets a high standard, but there’s any amount of newcomers who could turn out to be very useful here and taking odds on looks to be a risky move.

Active Force, a six-length winner of his Courttown point, can be expected to go well and the same can be said of Tinahely point winner Whisperinthebreeze. Joseph O’Brien’s pair of Whatchamacallit (JP McManus) and Alighted (Gigginstown) definitely need market checks given how powerfully his newcomer Ballyneety travelled in the closing Tuesday bumper and it is tremendously exciting to see Young Wolf, a half brother to the very smart and sadly departed Neon Wolf. Nearly Man is a fascinating runner for the Rooney with Gordon Elliott.

3.00 – Leopardstown Christmas Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+): This is an absolute belter of a race and it can go to and absolute belter of a horse in Sizing John. The Gold Cup winner, who also took the Irish and Punchestown version last season, made it four straight Grade 1 successes with an impressive reappearance victory in the John Durkan when he put Djakadam aside comprehensively, and scarily for his opponents, he might come on for that success. He had Djakadam in trouble from the moment he hit the front and turned for home and he holds rock solid claims.

Yorkhill is many people’s idea of the most talented horse in training, and little wonder given the nature of his win in a fine JLT Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when he had three Grade 1 winners behind him – his second Cheltenham Festival success. He has plenty of quirks to match his talent, however, as his defeat in the Ryanair Novice Chase showed when going right handed proved to be too much for him as he threw the race away by jumping to his left.  The return to going left handed should suit him a lot today, but this is his first time at 3 miles and on his seasonal reappearance under Paul Townend. Townend has proven himself an entirely able duty in the absence of Ruby Walsh but he found Yorkhill to be a difficult ride at Aintree two seasons ago over 2 miles and going three miles for the first time, it will be imperative that he settles and responds well to his ‘new’ rider for a horse with so much raw speed.

Road To Riches got the better of Yorkhill thanks to going right handed, but that was a fine end to a sudden burst of progression that included a dismantling of his opposition in a Cheltenham handicap. He has continued in the same vein since, with a taking win in the Irish Daily Star being followed by a fine effort when he went down all guns blazing to Outlander in the JN Wine at Down Royal. He ought to run well, but the winner of the JN Wine is interesting at a price here.

Outlander can give very different efforts from run to run, but it’s easy to forget that he took this race last year and in some style too, making it 4-4 at Leopardstown. His JN Wine Champion Chase win appeared to come fair and square, knuckling down to beat Road To Riches in gritty style with the two a mile clear. He was nowhere in the Betfair, but that result can be forgiven in what was near unraceable ground in the Betfair and it would not be a surprise if he was to bounce back in what have to be considered much more suitable conditions and he could pay handsomely if on his going day today.

Valseur Lido was tremendously impressive in last year’s JN Wine and went off 3/1 to follow up here and could ‘only’ finish fourth behind Outlander last year. He’s been off since and this has to be a watching brief for the tremendously talented eight-year-old. Minella Rocco would have a huge each/way shout on his Gold Cup second – although he was well beaten behind Sizing John – although he was a bit disappointing on his seasonal reappearance when well treated but unable to trouble Road To Respect. He might not have enjoyed the ground when pulled up at Cheltenham  and is worth watching in running.

Zabana was 14 lengths behind Outlander and Road To Respect at Down Royal and the drying ground is unlikely to change that for him whilst Alpha Des Obeaux looks overmatched here. That we’re seeing Eduwlf here is a testament to the skill and professionalism of everyone at Three Counties Equine Hospital and Liam Kearns. Balko Des Flos won the Galway Plate and did so in fine style but that appears to be his level.

Advice: 3 pts win Sizing John (11/8 general), 1 pt each/way Outlander (16/1 general)

3.35 – Midland Legal Solicitors Beginners Chase (4yo+): Sutton Place is one of the most exciting horses in training and if he takes to chasing then he can go right to the very top. He hasn’t been seen since pulling up lame in the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown but before that he had trashed the opposition in the Limestone Lad and Boyne Hurdle, perhaps never more impressive than when putting nearly eight lengths between himself and Supasundae on his seasonal reappearance last season, a performance that gives strong encouragement about his return here, and if he were to take this then perhaps Cheltenham could be an option with the JLT looking ideal.

He is making his debut in a strong race, with Deloitte Hurdle winner and two time Grade 1 victor Bacardys on a retrieval mission after a dire first round of jumping on his Navan debut when dropping down to 2m3f did not help him at all. He surely can only improve but is also begging to be taken on as favourite with Snow Falcon, well ahead of him that day and then third in the Drinmore since, looking a rock solid option. Noel Meade’s chaser has jumped well in the main on both those outings and is also probably going to enjoy the ground more than he has the last twice.

Wishmoor, Chain Gang and Golan Lodge could struggle here.

Limerick

We don’t know if the meeting will go ahead – there’s an inspection that will have taken place by the time you read this – but it’s to be hoped that we are able to race as there’s a fascinating card. Easily the most intriguing race is the Frontline Security Maiden Hurdle (2.45) simply for the presence of Epicuris, possibly the most talented recruit to the hurdling game for some time. It’s been 606 days since he ran in the Prix Du Muget but before that he was a winner of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a 2-year-old and then fifth in Golden Horn’s Derby, as well as also being fourth in the Prix Eugene Adam. He will be of interest for the Supreme in the eyes of many, and he needs to win this and win it well, and we have a good set of markers in the shape of Ministerforsport (Gowran bumper winner), Gun Digger (Thurles Bumper winner who possibly didn’t stay 2m4f last time), and the wide margin Bangor bumper winner Captain Zebo, who has moved yards since.

Meri Devie is not appealing at evens in the Irish Independent Hurdle (2.10) given the heavy ground and she’s crying out to be taken on with Us And Them, who rallied very hard to beat yesterday’s impressive Leopardstown handicap winner Trainwreck at Punchestown on heavy ground. He will need to improve a little bit again but this doesn’t look and overambitious assignment and he makes far more appeal than the favourite.

Duca De Thaix was behind Meri Devie at Naas but possibly needed that run after a year on the sidelines and remains of interest for the future, whilst it will be fascinating to see how Dolciano Dici fares here with Alexis Porier once again booked for Mullins. Prospectus and Balakani look overmatched.

1.10 Limerick – 1 pt win Us And Them (7/2 Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power)

Montana Belle looks to have been given a good opportunity in the D Pack Packaging Rated Novice Chase (1.10) if he produces his best, and her third in the Grade 3 Kerry Group Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase gives her a fighting chance. Experienced chaser Balbir Du Mathan could find this more suitable than past assignment and Ballela Boy and Notwhatiam look a bit exposed.

In the opening Woodlands House Hotel Adare Maiden Hurdle (12.35), Niven ought to go close. He’s already favourite, but deserves to be having bumped into Mengli Khan and Early Doors on his first two starts and either would be long odds on to take this contest. His big rivals are point winner Plan Of Attack and Great Trango, a five length second to Sharjah last time on his third start.

 

Today’s Tips:

1.10 Limerick – 1 pt win Us And Them (7/2 Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power)

3.00 Leopardstown – 3 pts win Sizing John (11/8 general), 1 pt each/way Outlander (16/1 general)

International Meeting – Saturday’s Preview and Tips

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A good day for the tips on the opening day of Cheltenham’s International Meeting, with a win for Robinsfirth in good style despite idling, and a decent second for Remiluc amongst our selections. He was part of a double for the Tizzards, who announced the retreatment of Cue Card after three runs next year, with Tizzard telling the Racing Post; “I think we’ll give him three runs in the spring and then retire him. I’ll have him as my hunter after that. He could go to the Ascot Chase, then the Gold Cup or Ryanair Chase, and then Aintree.”

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One of the most taking performances of the day came from Western Ryder, who found relentlessly for pressure to take what looked like a strong novice hurdle off a farcical pace, reversing the form of the Aintree bumper with the second Lawlor – the two coming well clear of Summerville Boy having given plenty of weight away. The winner was cut to 16/1 foe the Supreme nut connections suggested a step up in trip would be ideal for him, with the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon nominated as a target in the future, and he would be interesting over any trip from 2m to 2m4f; He coped well with no gallop today.

Sizing Tennessee’s jumping held together to take the novice chase, but he will need to jump better if he’s to step up in class for all that he stayed well to get the better of Duel At Dawn. Bless The Wings was terrific over the Cross Country fences and has to be respected coming back in March, whilst Arthur’s Gift and Ms Parfait were both good winners and can go further, especially the latter.

Today’s racing has a something for everybody approach, with the International Hurdle (3.05) alongside the Bristol (2.30) and the betting feature, the Caspian Caviar Handicap (1.55), the rematch of the Bet Victor Gold Cup that took place 29 days ago.

Had Clan Des Obeaux run in that race, he may well have won, given that he held a mark of 148 at the time, and off that same rating he finished a close second to the Ladbrokes Trophy second Whisper, before then winning a Haydock Graduating Chase by seven lengths. The form of his second at Newbury to Whisper has already been underlined – indeed Whisper was a Grade 1 horse beforehand but is now rated 161 – and his victory at Haydock was perhaps just as impressive.

He was always travelling best but when push came to shove he poured it on to leave very useful rivals behind in Vintage Clouds (an 18-length handicap winner last time out) and Born Survivor, a previous winner. He was giving 8lbs to both that day and had them well beaten; All things said, a mark of 155 looks fair even if up against capable rivals, and all ground comes alike to him.

Seven horses reopposes from the Bet Victor Gold Cup, where Splash of Ginge beat Starchitect, Le Prezien, Ballyalton, Romain De Senam, Foxtail Hill and Guitar Pete. They are not easy to separate here, with Le Preizen perhaps being the best of them at the weights, although his jumping needs to improve still.

It’s interesting to note there’s a lot less pace on in a smaller field for Foxtail Hill than he had in the Bet Victor, and he’s a winner over this course and distance too on testing ground. In running might be the way to play him, but perhaps the form of last year’s contest is stronger and King’s Odyssey looked like he would surely have gone very close had he stood up there. Jumping is an issue for Ewan Williams’s eight year old but he warmed up with a nice pipe opener at Carlisle over 2 miles, and is now 7lbs lower than he was when running in this last year.

That’s just 1lb higher than his last winning mark – for a well contested Novice’s Handicap over this C&D – and this has to have been the plan for a long time.

The market has the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle (2.30) between Count Meribel and Eqqus Secretus. It is very hard to split the pair, with Nigel Twiston Davies’s charge a deserved favourite on the basis of his three wins since returning from a summer break. Easily the most impressive of these was a nine-length win at Ascot, when giving a penalty away to Perfect Harmony, the bumper winner who had finished fourth behind On The Blind Side at Aintree on his hurdling debut beforehand. This is a step up to three miles, but he was not stopping at Ascot over 2m5f and he ought to go very close.

His form ties in closely with Equus Secretus, who ground his way to victory from the front over the Another Stowaway, who was a close second in that Aintree race. At the weights Equus Secretus is the better treated of the pair, although this will be his first time running on ground this soft; If he handles it, he will take the beating.

Global Stage got off the mark at Ayr last time and it could be that after one too many trips to the well last season after a gruelling debut effort in the Tolworth), he’s coming back to his best now and this trip looks a good idea. Fergal O’Brien’s great run of form is another plus and he might still have more to give, especially up in trip.

Aye Aye Charlie was fourth behind On The Blind Side in that very good novice hurdle and he was going to get closer to him when he fell here three out in a Grade 2 over C&D that On The Blind Side ended up winning. He can’t be underestimated and those two make more appeal than Kilbricken Storm, who badly needs this step up in trip but must step up on the book as well.

The International Hurdle (3.05) brings together one of the most unexposed – or perhaps the most unexposed – horse in the Champion Hurdle market in the shape of Melon, who was second in the Supreme Novices’ last year. Beaten at Punchestown when getting locked into a pace duel, he made a decent return in the WKD Hurdle despite a couple of sloppy leaps when he didn’t need them, but was having only his fourth start and should come on plenty for that reappearance. He will need to, however – he has a penalty for that success which puts him level pegging with established 2-mile hurdlers.

If he can beat The New One, then he will have marked himself down as a Champion Hurdle contender and truly so; The hardy 10 year old won this in 2013, 2014 and last year, and has not failed to run a bad race for as long as one can remember. After another winning return at Kempton, he was topweight and very popular for the Greatwood, where he gave the now rated 151 Elgin 18lbs and was beaten less than 6 lengths.

It is tricky to think of another horse in the field that would have ran so well – Indeed Old Guard is a previous winner of this but he is also over a stone worse off with The New One for that run – and he has to be the one to beat on that basis here. My Tent Or Yours, second in tree Champion Hurdles last year, has to be given a serious chance on his best, but he is not likely to be at his sharpest and he was beaten into second in this race last year.

The one who appeals as being overpriced is Ch’Tibello, who was third in the Christmas Hurdle when 2 and a half lengths behind and is now 6lbs better off for that run. Extremely progressive last year, he ended up being second to Yanworth in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in February when last seen, and whilst he had to miss the Champion, he goes very well fresh and can outrun his price.

Old Guard can run a consistent race and is a previous winner of this event, but he looks in between the rock and hard place of being a high-class handicapper. That could be a problem for John Constable, who won the Summer Hurdle in good style off 150, Dell’ Arca has a lot to find is a stayer nowadays.

The OLBG Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (3.40) is a really good race for the level where Momella’s second to On The Blind Side looks to be the best piece of form, although she must contend with the last time out winners Lady Karina, Brilliare Momentum, Molly Childrers and Lanmanver Odyssey.

Plenty hold decent chances in the Junior Jumpers Handicap Chase (1.20) although none quite persuasive enough to put forward here with Bun Doran and Gino Trail the two that stand out.

We have our second four runner novice chase in the shape of the Ryman Novices’ Chase (12.45), and it is an intriguing one although Movewiththetimes looks to be the pick. Paul Nicholls’ novice chaser needed the run a lot and shaped well considering in the Showcase meeting here, and he just found one too good when he ran into Finian’s Oscar here last time.

He’s well treated as a maiden over fences, getting 5lbs from Jameson, who ran very well in a well contested handicap at Newbury last time despite being rated 4lbs higher, and he also gets 5lbs from previous chase winner Kalondra. Coo Star Sivola was four lengths behind him and must improve if he’s to get closer although he can’t be discounted.

In the opener, Apple’s Shakira will be a money buying exercise for many following her completely destruction of a useful horse in Gumball over the Old Course on her British debut. Highly rated at home following her impressive win in the Prix Colonel Bidault, she was backed heavily to overturn Gumball and travelled well into the strong pace before being brought off the bridle by Barry Geraghty, but she was hacking after a few strides and up 17 lengths between her and a 144-rated hurdler.

We have only three rivals for her, and a decent yardstick in Nube Negra, a three-time Flat winner in Spain last month who made a big impression when coming nine lengths clear of the previously progressive Knight Destroyer (rated 130 at the time) on his Market Rasen debut. Tamayef is cannily placed for last place money.

There is a strong card at Doncaster which includes the Summit Juvenile Hurdle (2.45) where We Have A Dream and Act Of Valour face off after impressive wins last time, the December Novices’ Chase (2.10), and the fiercely contested bet365 Handicap Chase (3.25), but nothing made enough appeal to put up to subscribers here.

Sunday’s highlights come at Navan, with the Navan Novice Hurdle (12.45) a very strong Grade 2. We shall see the level of Samcro’s form – through the second, third and fourth from his Monksfield romp as Jetz, Delta Work and Half The Odds here.

They are unlikely to land a blow against the top three in the market, and of those three Next Destination makes the most appeal for future targets, namely the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. The Champion Bumper fourth made a fine debut over hurdles at Navan when he turned on the taps after to gallop his field into the ground restlessly, winning by 13 lengths. The form of that race in behind hasn’t worked out that well since but Someday was running a big race when he fell next time out and Paloma Faith was just touched off next time. A step up in trip will bring more improvement but 3 miles ought to be his trip and the Champion Bumper is working out nicely

Cracking Smart, a really impressive winner of a winner of a 3m Listed hurdle at Cork last month, is just at home over this trip and will provide a serious test for him. It would be no surprise were he to go off favourite or win, but defeat in December is not a death knell for Albert Bartlett prospects – indeed only Unowhatimeanharry went through the season unbeaten to win the contest from the last five winners – and he if goes, he c

Poli Roi, who came on a ton for his reappearance when winning well at Galway, is another to come into the mix. Gigginstown will most likely take the “Future Champions” INH Flat Race (3.40) home with either Felix Desjy, who battled hard to win at Down Royal last time out, and the valuable Rapid Escape, who carried a penalty nicely to win at Punchestown.

Advice

1.55 Cheltenham – 1 pt win Clan Des Obeaux (7/2 general)

1.30 Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way King’s Odyssey (15/2 general)

2.30 Cheltenham – 1 pt win Equus Secretus (15/8 general)

3.05 Cheltenham – 2 pts win The New One (9/4 general)

Ante Post

1 pt each/way Next Sensation, 2018 Albert Bartlett (14/1 Bet Victor)

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Horse racing online slots

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There are plenty of horse racing online slots available today for people to choose. These are interesting slot games for a lot of people today, since horse racing is something of a niche sport in the modern world. However, horse racing still certainly has a following among the gaming community in general. It’s no surprise that a lot of people maintain enough of an interest to appreciate the graphics and everything else associated with horse racing today.

It’s easy to make an online casino slot game that features horse racing interesting. After all, people just need to think about the basic mechanics of horse racing in the first place. A few seconds can determine whether or not a particular horse is able to win a race. For a lot of people, the question of whether they will win or lose a bet can come down to fractions of a second ultimately.

The tension associated with bets is one of the reasons why a lot of people love them so much in the first place. They do still care about the money involved, of course, especially if the jackpot is large enough and if they have put a lot of money on the line in their own right. However, for many individuals, the thrill associated with the bet is the point of it all. They want to get a huge and powerful adrenaline surge that will make them feel as if they can do anything.

Bets have a way of making people feel as if anything is possible. While people will still know intellectually that this is not the case, it is fun to feel that way for just a little while. It’s fun to feel a sense of adrenaline that is attached to some risks in the real world but that will still not determine whether or not a person lives or dies. Gambling can offer people real risks, but these risks are still mild compared to what some other people will experience.

Horse racing has a way of heightening those risks, even when people compare it to some of the other sporting events that people will bet on over the course of their lives. A horse race is so brief and over so quickly that it can feel as if it is barely even happening in a lot of cases. For some people, this is the sort of thing that can make the experience better. The adrenaline surge will be even more extreme. It makes sense that this is the sort of activity that will inspire people who love online casino slot games. They can combine several great activities in one with these games.

It’s getting easier for people to have a lot of the thrills associated with gaming with fewer risks. People can now try slots for free before you deposit, at least at some online casino gaming websites. This will give people the opportunity to sample many more slot games, and that includes the online casino slot games that feature horses.

International Meeting – Friday’s Preview and Tips

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We’ve not left the European Union just yet but whether in or not, Cross Country races will always attract interesting continental European contenders and it’s worth backing Kapville to strike a blow for the French in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap (3.05). Twice placed in the Anjou-Loire Challenge, the ten-year-old is a veteran of the sphere in France and whilst he comes here 3lbs out of the handicap, he is in good form as his last win at Lyon Parilly shows and he is still value despite the collapse in his price from 50/1 from 9am to 16/1 at the time of writing. Kingswell Theatre took the C&D event at the Open and should go well even if up 6lbs here in a race full of fascinating contenders.

It’s interesting to note that Matada Supreme, who got the better of Josies Orders by a head at Punchestown, is now 15lbs better off and he’s more than three times the price; The worry is that he finished well beaten on his only previous start here in the 2015 renewal of this contest

Tiger Roll came alive when faced with something like a decent surface to take the National Hunt Chase at the Festival, and is slightly interesting off his mark, and if More Of That takes to this test then he needs to be taken seriously and perhaps the pair are in running choices. Cantlow also ought to be heavily involved at the end.

The Unicoin Group Handicap Chase (2.30) is going to be a real slog and Robinsfirth can keep the title at Colin Tizzard’s for the second year running. His fourth on his reappearance here at the Showcase, when Cogry beat Singlefarmpayment with Doing Fine in third, looks to be the strongest form and he found Only Chase The Spud too strong on atrocious ground at Haydock last time out. This will be a soggy affair but hopefully not that testing, and he can go close again. Wotizname has a whole host of improvement to come following his good win at Exeter and should go well whilst a fine first time out record. Shanroe Santos, Southfield Theatre, and Abracadabra Sivola need respect but those three-stand tall over the rest of the field.

Earlier, the Catesby Handicap Hurdle (1.20) is a fiercely contested race but if Remiluc manages to repeat his excellent Newbury effort of last time then he ought to go really well. He found only the Greatwood Hurdle third Old Guard too good that day with the highly rated and very solid Air Horse one just behind. In fourth was Master Dance, a previous dual winner who came fresh into the race off a 10-length winning margin. Former Tony Martin inmate Okotoks moves to the Fergal O’Brien yard and starts on what looks to be a good mark based on Irish form – when fourth in the Paddy Power’ You Beauty’ Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas subsequent winners of the Coral.ie Hurdle, Coral Cup, along with the runner-up of the Galway Hurdle – whilst Smaoineamh Alainn is 2 from 2 hurdling and can go further. Look out for Alex Ferguson, who’s taking 7lbs off the previous Fontwell winner Raven’s Tower.

The closing Citipost Handicap Hurdle (3.40) could be a struggle after six previous races on this ground but it still should be easier than the Haydock slog thatThe Dutchman had when second – and a remote one at that – in the Fixed Brush hurdle. If that hasn’t left a mark, then this should be within his remit and whilst it’s hard to know how to rate the form given the conditions, he looks on a good mark.

The fact that Sparking River has a heavy ground success maker her the most tempting of those in the  CF Roberts Electrical & Mechanical Services Mares’ Handicap Chase (2.10) along with Song Saa, who was at his best when second at Worcester latest, but none of them make quite enough appeal to put forward here.

In the Horse Comes First Novices’ Chase (12.45) any of the four could be seen as a worthy favourite. Sizing Tennessee is a worthy favourite, but his jumping has let him down twice and his step through the second at Ascot was a worrying error which suggested he’s to be treated with caution. Coastal Tiep didn’t jump brilliantly when he was second at Aintree. It’s hard to know what to make of the form of his latest win in a three-runner field but he saw off a useful horse in Flintham and did so by 16 lengths; This ground will also not be a problem.

Tintern Theatre’s close and improved fourth in a novices’ handicap chase entitles him to significant respect here.

In the opening British Stallion Studs EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle, the form of Sommerville Boy’s close second to Slate House at the November meeting probably sets the standard for what’s been achieved over hurdles and he also gets a good amount of weight from the next two in the market, Lalor and Western Ryder. Both were good bumper horses, with Lawlor taking the Aintree Bumper when Western Ryder was third.

Western Ryder had been held up out of his ground – for the second spring festival in a row –  but was possibly feeling the efforts of a long season which included a listed win at Ascot too and a second giving a lot of weight to the very smart Daphne De Clos. After unseating on his hurdling debut, he was an easy winner of his hurdling debut when coping well with Chepstow’s heavy ground, and should be a good marker for the form level in this race, which looks strong on paper.

Also worth noticing is the six-length Taunton winner Shoal Bay, who won in a fashion that suggested he could take a penalty. The six-length second, Contented, has since won by seven lengths, and he could be an each/way option. Some Man showed plenty of promise on his debut when fourth after making a mistake at the last but both he and first-time hurdles winner Spice Girl must improve.

If you are going racing on New Years Day at Cheltenham Racecourse there are savings to be had if you book online using the link below.

  • £5 off Club tickets
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Advice

1.20 Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way Remiluc (15/2 Paddy Power)

2.30 Cheltenham – 1 pt win Robinsfirth (3/1 general)

3.05 Cheltenham – 1 pt each/way Kapville (16/1 general)

3.40 Cheltenham – 1 pt win The Dutchman (5/1 general)

Looking ahead to Champion Day at Cheltenham Festival 2018

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Racegoers cheer on their horse at Cheltenham Racecourse
Racegoers cheer on their horse at Cheltenham Racecourse

It’s already time to think about Cheltenham Festival 2018. It’s now less than 100 days until The Festival™ begins with the extravaganza that is Champion Day and already in this jumping addicted age we’ve seen plenty of potential contenders. So whom can we expect to look forward to seeing strutting their stuff on the Prestbury Park stage? Let’s give the crystal ball a spin.

The UniBet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy: The big race of the day. Faugheen is back, and until we see him again at Christmas then he is likely to dominate the market and narrative regarding the 2 mile division. His return in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown was in equal measures exciting and heartwarming for many, with Willie Mullins’ previous winner showing all the zest of his previous performances winning by 16 lengths, having always been in complete control. He looks over his injuries, but it will be fascinating to see him again. Will he be able to back up his reappearance performance at Leopardstown or perhaps Kempton?

This weekend we will see Buveur D’Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. Nicky Henderson’s charge thrashed his rivals in this race last season and was equally as impressive at Aintree when following up over four furlongs further. Both of those wins were as visually impressive as any UniBet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy performance one could hope to see and if he turns up in the same form then there will be an early season highlight to savour.

Outside of those two, the shortest-priced and perhaps most interesting contender for many is Melon. Second when favourite in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last season after his impressive Leopardstown debut win, his return in the WKD Hurdle saw a couple of sloppy leaps, but he promises to improve more than others at the top of the market.

Cilaos Emery got the better of Melon at the Punchestown Festival, although he was greatly helped by an aggressive ride from Ruby Walsh despite being pressured a long way out by Pingshou and Melon might be the better horse of the two.

Wicklow Brave who was 10th in the Melbourne Cup got the better of My Tent Or Yours (second) with Artic Fire (third) in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and is an interesting contender for two mile races. For all that he was beaten 15 lengths when he last met Faugheen. Defi Du Seuil was certainly not right when he was beaten well before the last in the Coral Hurdle, and it remains to be seen if he is as good as he was.

Outside of those select few, it’s tricky to think of others who might be major contenders with many in the bookmakers lists sent to go chasing.

Now let’s take a look at the other races on the opening day of Cheltenham Festival 2018 and if you need tickets you can purchase them here – buy Cheltenham Festival 2018 tickets.

The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race: The big question is where will Samcro turn up? It’s already assumed by many that Gordon Elliot has a sure-fire The Festival™ winner and for me he looks set to turn up in the Ballymore on Wednesday. His connections have another leading contender for this race in the shape of second season hurdler Mengli Khan, who looks set to run in the Royal Bond, having won the ‘For Auction’ Novice Hurdle at Navan. He dismissed the previous winner Saturnas on the bridle with Morgan well behind in third and should go well there.

Le Richebourg, who impressed during the Summer at Killarney and Galway, will love good spring ground but perhaps might not enjoy the soft ground he’ll get during the winner. He could take on Mengli Khan on Sunday in the Royal Bond.

On British soil, Slate House has already been over the course and distance and was took the eye in both his maiden hurdle win and also the The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle. He should have more improvement to come having had just two starts over hurdles whilst last year’s Champion Bumper fifth Claimantakinforgan was smooth on debut at Newbury.

Debuchet has had a setback but will be out before the end of the year assuming smooth progress and Red Jack, who beat him last year on debut and was a striking winner on his hurdling debut at Naas on heavy ground in another candidate.

The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase: This already looks to be a very strong renewal if the main contenders stay fit. Willie Mullins’ compliments about Footpad following his 11 length debut victory over Brelade at Navan say a lot: “He is a very natural jumper at home and he did the same here. I thought it was a good performance for a first time out novice. He’s as good a novice as I’ve seen schooling at home.”

We could see him in the Racing Post Chase on Boxing Day at Kempton, the route taken by Douvan, Sizing Europe and Min in recent years before a return to Cheltenham on Champion Day.

It’s a shame that Petit Mouchoir has suffered a serious setback that will see him out until at least January, which could make getting the required experience and fitness for the Arkle quite a struggle. He had looked just as good a chaser as he was a hurdler on his Punchestown debut when he beat Brelade by an easy seven lengths.

Ballyandy was fourth in the Supreme (and won the Betfair Hurdle) so we know he goes well here and he coped with soft ground impressively when getting the better of Fagan in a slowly run race on debut at Perth.

North Hill Harvey was impressive when getting the better of Movewiththetimes on his chasing debut at Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting (Sceau Royal second giving 5lbs), and he handled the very testing ground to take the Arkle Trial at the November meeting. River Wylde did not handle the ground there and his limp effort should be written off. He looks a better chaser than hurdler based on his Uttoxeter win and back on good ground he should reach a very decent level over the bigger obstacles.

The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase: A long way out to preview a handicap, but there are certain trends to look out for. Novices have won four of the last nine runnings. There have been just two horses aged eleven or over placed in the last fifteen runnings and eight of the last 18 winners have been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before. Last year’s renewal was a high-class affair.

The OLBG Mares’ Hurdle Race: If Apple’s Jade, Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag turn up here again then we are in for another treat. Apple’s Jade has already been seen out and impressed in the way that she managed to dismiss Jer’s Girl on her seasonal reappearance given giving a fair amount of weight too; an impressive performance for the time of year.

This is a strong division, with Colin’s Sister having already taken the West Yorkshire Hurdle, beating open opposition in the shape of Wholestone (she runs at Newbury in the Long Distance on Friday), and it remains to be seen if some leading mares go against geldings, with the Stayers Hurdle an attractive option for her and Apple’s Jade. La Bague Au Roi was well beaten behind Let’s Dance last year but has won twice already, including over 3 miles at Kempton, and don’t forget Augusta Kate either.

The J T McNamara National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Steeple Chase): It’s a long way to preview this race given that most still harbour RSA Ambitions, but it’s worth focussing on those that head the betting with favourites doing well with the last three winning. Three of the last five winners have been top rated and 28 of the 32 winners had finished in the top four in their last. The picture will be clearer after Christmas.

The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase: Two stats are very revealing here; six of the last eleven winners were officially rated between 133 and 135 and five of the eleven winners were seven-year-olds, so there is a typical profile. Not much separates a lot of the field come the off and many betting plots tend to reveal themselves quite late.

To learn more about Champion Day visit the Cheltenham Festival 2018 website.

Grand National Thursday is good value

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The enthusiastic crowd at Aintree Racecourse
The enthusiastic crowd at Aintree Racecourse

When looking ahead to next year jumping fans first thoughts are likely to be about Cheltenham Festival 2018, but eagle-eyed value seekers will have their eyes on some top quality racing further over the horizon; The Grand National Meeting and in particular Grand National Thursday.

Some might ask why I am writing about this before the Ladbrokes Winter Festival (or Hennessy) weekend, but the early bird does catch the worm with regards to value, and this is perhaps never truer for the first day at Aintree.

Entry to the Tattersalls enclosure, which allows access to the Chair Pavilion, Embankment, Red Rum Garden, Irish Bar, and the Aintree Pavilion throughout the day and after racing is just £29.

Entry to the Lord Sefton Terrace, which has seating, an outdoor terrace area next to the horsewalk, and trackside viewing heading out into the back straight for the Grand National Meeting Races is a snip at £42.50.

Access to the Lord Daresbury and Queen Mother Roofs, which offer a birds-eye view directly above the Finishing Post, is £50, and access to the Earl of Derby and Lord Sefton is £72 and $£67.50 respectively.

You can also look forward to one of the best afternoon’s racing of the year. The Manifesto Novices’ Chase over 2m4f kicks off proceedings and we could see Willoughby Court, Yanworth and Finians’ Oscar there assuming all stay fit through the season.

The Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle sees the top juveniles go head to head from the Triumph (for which Apple’s Shakhira is currently favourite), and the Betway Bowl does the same for the Gold Cup. With the staying division looking packed, we should see a strong renewal here with Tea For Two likely to defend his title once again.

The Aintree Hurdle could see the return of Buveur D’Air, a smooth winner last year, and the Foxhunters could once again see the majestic On The Fringe. It will be the first sight over the National fences all week plus we’ve got the Red Rum Handicap Chase and Mares Flat Race to enjoy.

You can enjoy one of the country’s finest racecourses offering top class racing and the world’s most famous race situated in a fantastic English city. There’s plenty of things to do in Liverpool; a city with unique attractions for visitors, exciting cultural and musical events plus the famous Liverpudlian warm welcomes. All things considered Liverpool is the ideal destination to visit and explore.

Make sure you stay with us as this jumps season really gets into gear and enjoy our build up to the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National meeting for which you can buy tickets here – BOOK YOUR AINTREE TICKETS.



Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap – Preview and Tips

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A welcome turnaround in form for us with 2 out of 3 winners yesterday in our Ladbrokes Winter Carnival preview, with Lostintranslation proving tough from the front and giving the Champion Bumper form another boost whilst Oldgrangewood took advantage of leniency from the handicapper to win the Open Handicap Chase, and looks an ideal candidate for similar handicap chases through the season.

We ere denied a treble, not by the mighty Thistlecrack, Colin’s Sister, or Wholestone, but Beer Goggles, shocking the Newbury crowd and the punters under a brilliant front running ride from Richard Johnson at 40/1, having seen off all comers including our choice Unkownwhatimeanharry, who had no excuses on the day having responded generously to the pressure of Barry Geraghty.

All credit to Richard Woollacott and connections for first of all running him in what would have been a four-runner race without him, and the improvement they have managed to coax out of him – listed as 42lbs before his shock win today – but the other story was Thistlecrack. He travelled well, albeit far too keen of a slow pace early, and when push came to shove the effects of what must have been a difficult recovery told quickly. Connections seemed unperturbed however, with Tom Scudamore telling the Racing Post that ‘he’d like to think he’ll improve an awful lot for that’ and Colin Tizzard telling reporters that he will go for the King George assuming soundness tomorrow. We will know how much ability he retains there, but his current price seems fair, and no more, based on the final makeup of the race.

Moving swiftly on, we have the Ladbrokes Trophy (3.00), better known as The Hennessy, and after a hugely encouraging performance from our ante post JLT choice Willoughby Court today, we have the first of our ante post conclusions with Whisper set to take his chance here. Our reasoning for backing Nicky Henderson’s charge for this over the summer is well known, with his novice chase form looking rock solid, and we have had a boost since with Clan Des Obeaux winning a good conditions chase at Haydock after being beaten snugly in a match at Kempton, and this test should see Whisper in his element today. The ground did not look overly testing here yesterday, and with no rain forecast, it should be fairly decent as a surface, which he should enjoy, and the 8/1 looks fair still although we have 16’s.

There’s no reason not to add to the portfolio, however, especially with some extraordinary place terms – SkyBet and William Hill are paying on the first seven places for a fifth the odds, and you can get 5 places with ¼ the odds to boot – and a recent race at Cheltenham looks like being a really strong trial for this event. Cogry was denied by neck in the Scottish National, but returned with a vengeance to take a valuable race at Cheltenham’s Showcase when he was front rank for most of the way round, and nothing could live with him up the hill as he pulled four lengths clear of Singlefarmpayment.

He went up 6lbs for that win, a lenient adjustment by the handicapper, and now Jamie Bargary comes on to take 3lbs of that off here. That and his Scottish National second are two of the strongest pieces of form in this race, this course is one that suits front runners and the ground and trip are ideal for him to show his best for an in form yard. 20/1 seems dismissive.

Singlefarmpayment was in rear for much of that contest, and moved through menacingly to try and challenge Cogry before he flew that day. Generally thought of as one of the best handicapped horses in training, he was beaten a head in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, when he found only Un Temps Pour Tout better than him and he’s just 5lbs higher now. He should have stripped fitter for that reappearance.

Total Recall was deeply impressive in the Munster National and will be a nuisance for Cogry on the front end, whilst American was just as impressive in taking a Listed chase at Warwick and then a Novices’ Handicap at Uttoxeter to boot and arguably is the biggest threat.

A Genie In A Bottle beat the Troytown Chase winner Mala Beach and did so well, making a mark of 152 look fair enough (Mala Beach won Troytown off 148), and he has big field experience, ought to enjoy the ground, and can go well. The value has gone regarding Vyta Du Roc, who should be spot on for this after a nice pipe opening reappearance at Aintree. His best form gives him every chance and the booking of Aidan Coleman catches the eye.

Coneygree’s early reappearance in the Charlie Hall was a disconcerting one, but he bounced back from a long absence to run a huge race in the Punchestown Gold Cup and if he is fit and well, then he will make his price look very foolish even off 165, and at the current price, many will be willing to take a chance on him.

Of the outsiders, Bobbyjo Chase winner Perfect Company is of interest, even on seasonal reappearance, and the veteran Double Ross, a five length third off just 2lbs higher in this last year. His reappearance fourth at Chepstow was not a bad effort and he unseated early last time so he can be forgiven.

Don’t forget Bryony Frost’s chances with Present Man who took the Badger Ales, but she could be on a winning note even before then given that she partners Black Corton in the Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase (12.45). Paul Nicholls’ charge made hay on the summer jumping circuit but he graduated to a higher level when winning an Intermediate Chase impressively at Newton Abbot, and then he trashed the useful past winner Fagan at Cheltenham in October.

He was the outside of three when back there to face the high class prospect Ballyoptic and West Approach, both previous winners, but he was extremely game down the straight and was the best on the day to win impressively there. It’s only 14 days since, but he’s won off such a short break before and on balance he sets a high standard over fences for all that Fountains Windfall and Sir Ivan have been very taking winners so far.

Wait For Me was going well when he fell in front last time but if putting in a clear round, is a contender.

The very same connections could have a wild day as Greatwood third Old Guard should go well in The Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (1.50), but if Air Horse One gets this trip then he will surely take the beating.

Harry Fry’s rapidly progressive 6-year-old tanked through William Hill’s Listed handicap hurdle at Ascot, and was sent off around the beginning of the home turn on his seasonal reappearance, having been caught up the home straight and then pushed out of the three late on. The first two had previous runs in the book, and the form has worked out brilliantly since with Elgin taking the Greatwood, Limited Reserve bolting up at Haydock, and Verdana Blue (fifth winning impressively). This is a deep, deep race but if he strips fitter and stays this trip, hopefully under a more patient ride, he can go close and is worth backing.

A case can be made for all six of the runners in The Intermediate Hurdle (2.25) with the return of Charli Parcs a subject of fascination upon his return. However, he has a bit to prove after two disappointing runs in the Adonis (under pressure when falling) and the Triumph (found very little having travelled well). It’s notable that there’s just as much belief in him at Seven Barrows, but he comes here with plenty to prove.

In any case, he will have to run right to form if he’s to take today’s prize. High Bridge was one of the smarter novice hurdlers of last season, winning twice here in very smart style before finding the Supreme too much, but he’d looked grown up when third in the same Listed handicap hurdle that Air Force one ran in and the form has been proven tenfold.

Mount Mews is a major rival off the same mark, having finished third at Ayr on his reappearance, where he shaped well. Second to Pingshou at Aintree last season in the Top Novices’ Hurdle, he showed a lot of promise as a novice and should step forward, although Alex Ferguson does get to take off 7lbs from High Bridge.

Cosmeapolitan shrugged off a blunder 2 out to win on his one and only hurdling start over C&D last December, and has been kept going on the flat – and in good company too – although this is a whole lot harder. Amour De Nuit was a smooth winner at Kempton, and is blessed with a handy amount of speed for a race like this where you can’t discount Poppy Kay or Master Of Irony either.

At Newcastle, Buveur D’Air, our choice for the Champion Hurdle, reappears in the Fighting Fifth where he is a long odds on shot to beat 2014 and 2016 winner Irving and Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger. Mirsaale might fight Flying Tiger for third but Katgary is hopelessly outclassed against the best here.

In the Rehearsal, Beware The Bear is favourite to make a long trip north very worthwhile. He should go well too, having beaten Singlefarmpayment at Ascot last year and then followed up in good style at Newbury. He was disappointing at Cheltenham and Ayr when his jumping didn’t hold up though, and that must improve if he is to take this.

The one who makes appeal is Bishops Road, who was 10 lengths behind Bristol De Mai and Definitely Red in this last year, and is now 10lb lower here and with a good record when fresh. The gruelling nature of the Eider Chase will not be alien to him and he can go well.

For today’s premium tips check out Community Membership.

Advice – Newbury

12.45 – 2 pts win Black Corton (7/4 general)

1.50 – 1 pt win Air Horse One (7/2 general)

2.25 – 1 pt win High Bridge (11/4 general)

3.00 – 1 pt each/way Singlefarmpayment (13/2 SkyBet, Hills*, 7/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)

3.00 – 1 pt each/way Cogry (14/1 Sky Bet, Hills, 16/1 Bet365, Paddy Power)

*SkyBet and Hills are paying out seven places for 1/5 the odds

Advice – Newcastle

3.25 Newcastle – 1 pt each/way Bishops Road (*8/1 Sportingbet, 9/2 general)

At the time of writing – 9.05pm, Friday – Sportingbet were listed by The Racing Post as showing Bishops Road as an 8/1 shot, whilst all other sites were 9/2 or 4/1. If that was not an error, then he should be backed each/way, and if it was, then his worth a win bet.

Already Advised

1 pt each/way Whisper, 2017 Ladbrokes Trophy, 27th October (16/1 general)

 

 

 

 

 

Ladbrokes Winter Carnival at Newbury – Day 1 preview and tips

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307 days. 43 Weeks, 5 Days, 23 Hours, 59 Minutes and 59 Seconds. That, is roughly how long it’s been since we last saw the mighty Thistlecrack, one of the most exciting horses in training and a leading contender for The Cheltenham Gold Cup. Today he makes his reappearance on the opening day of the Ladbrokes Winter Carnival.

Since then Colin Tizzard’s star has been off the track since then, having been found to have some heat in a leg before Tizzard’s vet confirmed a small tear to a tendon after taking a scan. His absence left the rest of the season a lot lighter, but to the delight of racing fans he reappears in today’s Long Distance Hurdle (3.00).

He’s an evens favourite to get back straight onto the winning trail, with a very advantageous weight as he’s not raced over hurdles since taking the Liverpool Hurdle of 2016 – meaning he gets weight from some of his rivals. However, this is also his first run since a tendon tear, and a race that is certain not to be his target with the King George and Gold Cup surely of more importance. It is far better to sit and see if he retains his ability – hopefully all of it – but today he can be taken on.

Uknowhatimeanaharry is one of the most consistent horses in training and will come here ripe and ready, having dropped back to 2m4f around Aintree in a three runner race to get the better of Value At Risk and Top Notch, giving over a stone away to the pair. It was a serious effort on his reappearance and he won this race last year by six lengths whilst also winning the Cleeve Hurdle before he finished third in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. He took the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown to boot and sets a high standard for the rest to aim at.

Colin’s Sister put in a career-best performance to take the West Yorkshire Hurdle when she beat Wholestone, third in last year’s Albert Bartlett, fair and square. She’s got a 3lbs penalty for that but could shape better for her first outing of the season and those pair do look quite big in relation to the front two in the pair, although it would have been better if there had been a bigger field for each/way purposes.

This should be a nice pipe opener for Taquin De Seuil whilst Beer Googles is progressive and deserves respect, although this is a jump into the deep end for him.

Just over an hour earlier, there’s a fascinating clash in the Berkshire Novices’ Chase (1.50). The market sees this as a clash between last season’s Liverpool Hurdle winner Yanworth, and our ante post selection for the JLT, Neptune winner Willoughby Court. Both are already winners over fences, with Yanworth having won cosily enough over 2 miles at Exeter before falling when stepped up in trip at the same venue, whilst Willoughby Court had to work very hard to get over the line at Huntington when making his chasing debut.

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Not too many were impressed with the manner of that victory, but going right handed was anathema to what Willoughby Court wanted and he ought to have improved a great deal given the nature of his jumping there.

The two will not have it between them, as Adrien Du Pont bounced right back to form when winning with plenty in hand at Fontwell on his chasing debut in October. That was a strong race for the track, and the form looks solid with the fifth winning a good handicap since along with wins for the second and third.

This is an extremely tough introduction to racing under rules for Battle Anthem, and Western Miller has been running well but will find easier opportunities.

Sandwiching the two is the Ladbrokes Open Handicap Chase (2.20), which gives us a small but very well contested field here. The best piece of form might be the Old Roan Chase third of Oldgrangewood, and the handicapper could have been kind in dropping him two pounds for that effort. The winner was the top class Smad Place, whilst the second was Cloudy Dream, last year’s Arkle and Manifesto Chase second. He was a pretty clear third of what had looked a strong contest and a repeat will see him go well.

O O Seven will be an interesting fixture in handicaps this season after a good novice chase campaign although Willie Boy, who kept up a remarkable pace to beat the stayer Henry Parry Morgan over this same course from the get go last time. Ridgeway Flyer is a 6yo who is on the up still and he might be able to absorb his handicap rise too whilst Jameson showed a very good attitude winning a Sandown Novice Handicap.

Icing On The Cake, third in a strongly contested and similar handicap chase towards the back end of last season and is very well handicapped on that basis.

The opener (12.25) looks a decent contest but the standard that Lostintranslation has shown his two outings over timber, including when runner-up to Nicky Henderson’s Claimantakinforgan (fifth in the Champion Bumper) over C&D last month, and if repeating that level, he can go close again here.

Black Op looked like he’d take high rank when beating Claimantakinforgan in a bumper at Doncaster in February before finishing down the field in a bumper at Aintree, but he is better than that and he can go well here. World Premier won his bumper impressively at Market Rasen and was purchased over the summer by JP McManus here, although the form of that event hasn’t worked out as one would like since.

Advice

12.20 Newbury – 1 pt win Lostintranslation (9/4 general)

2.20 Newbury – 1 pt each/way Oldgrangewood (6/1 general)

3.00 Newbury – 2 pts win Unkowhatimeanharry (2/1 general)

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