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St Leger Festival 2018 – Gentleman’s Day – Preview and Tips

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John Gosden’s incredible campaign has encompassed all types of races and he could have another chance of taking a major handicap in the shape of Ben Vrackie in the Mallard Handicap, who was beaten by St Leger contender Maid Up last time at Goodwood. There is no shame in that defeat given that Maid Up had previously won the Lille Langtry, which produced the first and third in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster Yesterday

He had previous beaten a previous winner by 11 lengths in a novice stakes at Lingfield and this big handicap, which is likely to be well run, ought to suit him more than a three-horse sprint. Nakeeta has proven disappointing for this column, but it is worth remembering that it’s less than a year ago when he was finishing fifth in the Melbourne Cup. Before that he’d won the Ebor at York and he’s had excuses since. On his return in the Chester Cup he was drawn to the outside and afterwards he was a staying on fifth in the JLT Handicap – his Ebor seventh was a disappointing effort in that light but the quality of that race is so rarefied is that this has to be considered to be a lesser contest and he’s worth chancing once again.

The Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (1.50) sees the ladies go first and whilst one can expect Laugh Aloud to shape a lot better for her return, Anna Nerium’s defeat of older horses at Goodwood is amongst the standout form and took her record over this trip to 3-4 here. Dan’s Dream will like the ground whilst Dancing Star was unlucky in the Oak Tree Stakes but Ellthea is of interest. She has been highly tried since taking the Park Stakes in Ireland but there was no shame in finishing seventh in the Pouliches or fifth in the Sandringham and the form of the latter has worked out quite well with second Crown Walk, winning the Group Three Prix Chloe since, and the third Efaadh winning the Group Three Prix de la Porte Maillot. She likes to cut but handles good ground and looks a rock solid each/way contender here.

The Flying Childers is a well contested race but the same applied to the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood and Rumbleinthejungle won that and won it well and his Norfolk fourth is shaping up well too. He looks a worthy favourite and has had just three starts, so hopefully would not have peaked just yet.

Legends Of War, a fine second in the Gimcrack, and a Indigo Balance, a gutsy winner of the Curragh Stakes over Gossamer Wings last time, could be chief threats although Solider’s Call ought to go well too.

The Doncaster Cup (3.35) looks far too trappy to contemplate and it is hard to take on Sangarius in the Weatherbys Global Stallions App Flying Scotsman Stakes (4.05), so it could be best to leave things there.

Advice

1.50 Doncaster – 1 pt win Anna Nerium (5/1 Paddy Power, 9/2 general)
1.50 Doncaster – 1 pt each/way Ellthea (10/1 Betfair, 9/1 general)
2.25 Doncaster – 2 pts win Rumbleinthejungle (2/1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
3.00 Doncaster – 2 pts each/way Ben Vrackie (Bet365, Hills)
3.00 Doncaster – 1 pt each/way Nakeeta (14/1 general)

We’re in red hot form at the moment with 2 out of 2 profitable Plays during the St Leger Festival, so it’s a great time to join our Community

Why betting is growing in popularity among horse racing fans?

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Online Betting has gained a lot of popularity recently among sports enthusiasts and Horse racing fans are no different in this regard. As of April 2016, horsing racing fans in US alone have placed bets worth $3.4 billion which was a 4% increase when compared to previous years. During the Kentucky Derby races in 2016, there was a total of $192.6 million spent on horse racing bets. Some of the popular online betting websites experienced a crash during that day.

According to ESPN Horse racing is one of the top sports in the UK and the US and the attendance numbers have increased steadily. Kentucky Derby, The Royal Ascot, Cheltenham Festival are some of the most followed events in United Kingdom. When the casinos popped all over the UK and the US, they scooped a lot of money from customers who were betting crazy on the races.  It was predicted by one of the sports clubs that wagering on horse races may increase by 25% during 2021. Before you go ahead with betting, you should understand the basics of horse racing and know how to evaluate the strength of various horse breeds. Based on statistical data, it is known that on average Favourites win the race 33.3% of the time and the remaining 66.7%, it is won by some other horses. You should also know how the horse has been prepared before the race and whether it is moving up the class, its previous track records etc. You should be careful not to bet on the overworked and overmedicated horses.

Betting on horse racing is legal in the US and is the only way to gamble online which definitely attracts all the newbie fans. In olden days, the bettors had to physically visit the track in order to place their bets as they will not know any details about the horses or the race tracks. But in modern days, you can view all the statistics of horse view the live race online by comfortably sitting in your home. This has definitely increased the popularly of online betting among horse racing fans. Online horse race betting is legal in most states of the US and also in the UK and many racetracks have their own digital betting sites. The online betting sites are user-friendly with simple and straightforward rules, excellent graphics, player chatrooms and also broadcast live feeds of races which makes it very attractive option for people who can’t travel to the actual race tracks. If you are residing in the UK and wish to bet online on horse racing events, www.bonus.co.uk is the best place for you.

Another reason why betting is increasing in popularity among horse racing fans is the increased payouts and possibilities of winning with the online betting sites. Players can gain access to detailed information about the jockey and horse trainers, the classes of the horses and its pictures and odds of winning. Some betting sites also offer online games like fantasy racing tournaments to attract newbies. In olden days generally only men above 50 who had experience and knowledge about horses were involved in betting, but with the advent of casual gambling sites, many youngsters below age of 40 have started to involve in horse race betting. Based on a survey by the Jockey Club, the average horse racing fans were 3 years younger than the average NFL fan and many were interested in online betting. This has caused many horse races to be conducted on smaller tracks and wagering increased by 1.2% over 2015. There is a lot of excitement and anticipation among newbies who have got addicted to online horse race betting. Also, the online viewership has increased with more fans enjoying the race online than people who visit the course to watch the race live. There are many horse racing events and festivals organized in the UK which attract horses from across Europe and this brings a lot of attention from bookmakers and online gamblers who try to make a lot of money by betting on their favourite horses.

Horse Racing Fanatics Keeping UK’s Traditional Sport Alive

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Horse racing is one of the traditional sports in the UK with its history dating back several centuries to the Roman Era. It also has the second largest number of spectators in the UK next only to football. The major horse racing events in the UK are the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot which attracts more than 200,000 fans every year from across the globe. Also, it is watched by millions of horse racing fans across the globe. Horse racing is a major sport which generates more than 3.7 billion pounds in revenue for the British economy.

You can find many youngsters fiddling with their betting slips and old folks smoking their cigarettes in these crowded race tracks. A pinnacle of the horse racing season in the UK, the Cheltenham Festival alone attracts more than £1 billion revenue in gambling over the 26 horse races conducted over the 4 days of the event. This is a great time for bookmakers to make money and we can see a lot of horse racing facing fans going crazy and betting on their favourite horses. The bookmakers say that they make more businesses in these 4 days than they normally do in 3-4 weeks of the usual time. The horse racing festivals attracts the best horses from across Europe and it is one of the popular sports events in the UK.

Though the horse racing viewership has seen a decline in last few years, it has again picked up momentum, thanks to the online betting sites which attract youngsters and newbies into the business. Another popular event which attracts even more viewers is the Royal Ascot which is a thoroughbred horse racing event conducted for 5 days at Ascot Racecourse in Berkshire, England. Royal Ascot 2018 was a high-profile, iconic event with world-class racing mixed with high fashion and loads of entertainment which started with a huge crowd on 19 June.

This event is attended by the British Queen and other members of the Royal family including Prince Philip. The event hosts six high-class races and various tournaments including the Commonwealth Cup, the Gold Cup and Group One Diamond Jubilee stakes and attracts more than 300,000 horse racing fans. The total prize money is a whopping £6.5 million for the winning horses and several bookmakers like William Hill are sponsors for this iconic horse racing event.

Many gamblers also have turned their attention towards horse race betting in online casinos. Recently an industry-wide initiative was launched to boost the popularity of horse racing in the UK which was titled as “Racing for Change”. This initiative focused on enhanced marketing and promotions, reduction in the entry fee for younger adults to racecourses and also simplification of racing schedules. Horse racing is facing tough competition from other sports like football and cricket which attracts more youngsters.

The gambling companies mention that 15 years ago horse race betting accounted for 90% of the overall gambling business in the UK, but it has declined a lot in last few years and fallen back to around 60%. The traditional bookmakers like William Hill are also concerned about the rise in taxes and impact of exchanges which has reduced their business. Still, the hard-core horse racing fans are trying hard to keep the traditional sport live by attending all the events live and betting on their favourite horses.

With more than 60 licensed race courses in the UK, hundreds of racing events conducted every year and millions of fans from across the world, the multi-billion-pound horse racing industry may not die anytime soon. Also, youngsters feel it’s more fun to wager on horses using the online betting sites and they like to watch the live streaming online rather than visiting the racecourse. The number of horses participating in the races, the number of events and the prize money is also increasing every year which is bringing in more viewers.

Royal Ascot 2018 – Friday preview and tips

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It’s Friday at Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips. Great tipping this week including 16/1 winner on Wednesday plus 16/1 and 6/1 and 5/1 winners yesterday.

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only): Aidan O’Brien has been knocking on the door with his juveniles all week and he holds an extremely strong hand here. Just Wonderful did well to bely her inexperience and win by a neck on her debut at the Curragh, and the daughter of Wading promises to improve a huge deal for that experience. Behind her were next time out winners Lethal Impact and Gossamer Wings, who was third in the Queen Mary.

It’ll take a good one to stop her but stablemate Fairyland has looked like just that in her two starts, quickening up smartly to beat a next time out winner on her debut at Naas and then taking a predictably big step forward when seeing off a talented set of rivals to take the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. Her straightforward attitude impressed and she had a convincing two and a half lengths in hand over highly rated stablemate Van Beethoven.

The third, Land Force, was beaten just half a length in the Norfolk yesterday, and fourth Gee Rex was eighth in the Coventry on Tuesday, so the form stacks up well and she can get the better of her stablemate.

Given the number of splits we’ve had this week, and the regular presence of big priced placed horses in the shakeup of juvenile races, it makes sense to have two strings to your bow. Octave needed all of Silvestre de Sousa’s strength to justify favouritism on debut but next time out she found only the startlingly impressive Calyx too good at the July course. She was beaten by an easy five lengths, but he has since won what looked a very strong Coventry and she was six lengths clear of the third. How flattered she is by her relative proximity remains to be seen but 20/1 looks too big to find out.

Main Edition has won two novice races in the style of a pattern horse and ought to be involved in the reckoning whilst Angel’s Hideaway, running for the week’s star team in the shape of Gosden and Dettori, moved clear in good style at Haydock last time on her second start. Godolphin’s La Pelosa was well backed on debut and won her maiden at Kempton smoothly from a next time out winner. She makes immediate appeal on form and potential.

Jessica Harrington’s Chicas Amigas impressed with victory at Dundalk and didn’t lose much face when second in a listed event to stablemate Servalan, who was sixth in the Queen Mary, whilst So Perfect was fourth in both aces. She can go well.

Different League made virtually all for Matthieu Palussiere in this race last season and the French handler saddles No More Regrets this time around, although she must improve from her second in the Premio Vitorio Crespi last time out. Yan Durepaire’s Bryon Bay, an impressive winner on her debut at Chantilly, makes more appeal from the raiding challenge.

Stillwater Cove wouldn’t have held on over five furlongs at Keenland when taking her Maiden Special Weight and Wesley Ward has had his juvenile winners at 5 furlongs here, so over this trip she makes little appeal.

Advice: 2 pts win Fairyland (7/2 general), 1 pt each/way Octave (20/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betway)

3.05 – 1m4f (1m3f211y) King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (3yo): Not much separates the field here. Wells Farhh Go looked a top prospect when he stole the Acomb Stakes on the line at York last season and his return in the Dante there gave encourage encouragement that he retains enough of his ability to move forward. This is the fastest ground he’ll have raced on and there might be stamina issues for some, but his overall promise makes him worth chancing.

Aidan O’Brien has had three horses beaten in Group 1’s bounce back to win at this meeting so far and it’s no surprise that Delano Roosevelt is favourite after his Epsom sixth. He deserves serious respect but perhaps Rostropovich can follow in the footsteps of Hunting Horn and improve greatly for fast ground following his French Derby effort. He was a disappointing ninth there, but today he reverts to the fast ground that he’s had just once this season, when he won the Dee Stakes in fine style. He looked as if he’d get further comfortably then although his stamina isn’t guaranteed, and on fast ground we could see plenty of improvement.

Giuseppe Garibaldi is a quickly maturing contender for Ballydoyle who has won his last two starts when getting good ground, including the King George V Cup.

Old Persian is well worth a try at this new trip and Raa Atoll has already improved a great deal for it since his taking debut so those two ought to be involved.  Elector was a staying on second to Raa Atoll at Leicester for The Queen and should improve over this trip. He makes an interesting contender for Sir Michael Stoute here.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Wells Farhh Go (9/1 general) 1 pt each/way Rostropovich (7/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

3.40 – 6f Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo): A race with sensational potential and an almost limitless list of contenders. The two against the field are Sands Of Mali and Invincible Spirit, who were separated by just noise at the end of the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last time. Sands Of Mali, a deeply impressive winner of the Gimcrack when he beat Invincible Army at York last year, didn’t fire in the Middle Park and the Breeders’ Cup, but was game as ever in the Prix Sigy when carrying a 6lbs penalty, and he made all once again in the Sandy Lane, manging to pull out a half a length on the runner up before then holding on at the line.

Invincible Army wont he Sirenia Strakes after his Gimcrack second last year and was beaten by the subsequent Greenham winner Expert Eye at the end of the season. His return in the Pavillion Skates, when he put a length and a half between him and Eqtidaar, set him up nicely for a bold bid in the Sandy Lane and he ought to enjoy returning to this track

The market has been dominated by Equilateral, the startlingly impressive 12 length winner at Doncaster. The bare form of that race might have taken a knock but the fact is that he beat a 97 rated filly last time by 8 lengths conceding 12lbs – a Group 1 performance in anyone’s book. He might be a bit short now after sustained support for the last two weeks.

Sioux Nation took the Norfolk here last year and then followed up with the Phoenix Stakes shortly afterwards. He was a Middle Park disappointment but his latest win ahead of stablemate Fleet Reveal in the Lacken Stakes (Speak In Colour and Now You’re Talking behind) when carrying a penalty showed a smart turn of foot and he will love returning back to this course and distance. Indeed, Fleet Review himself has each/way potential; This test ought to suit a great deal and so will having a pace to run at.

Emblazoned was a fine third in the Sandy Lane and behind him was Heartache and Unfortunately. If both are back to the form they showed last summer, with Heartache a fine winner of the Queen Mark and Unfortunately a game winner of the Prix Morny, they can prove to be well overpriced.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Sands Of Mali (9/1 Paddy Power, 15/2 Coral, Betway) Invincible Spirit (9/1 Paddy Power, 8/1 general)

4.20 – 1m (Rnd) Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo): A fine clash between the winners of the English, French, and Irish 1,000 Guineas. There appears to be little reason not to take Billesdon Brook’s Newmarket win at face value and that form appears to be the strongest in the race with Laurens having won the Prix Saint-Alary and Prix de Diane since whilst Wild Illusion has finished second in the Oaks and Ribblesdale since. She put the race to bed with a very convincing turn of foot that day and whilst she will have to show that speed again against milers, she appears overpriced in relation to the Irish pair at the head of the market.

Alpha Centuari relished a return to fast ground when taking the Irish 1,000 Guineas with a sustained late charge. Just beaten in the Albany last year, she ought to be seriously involved once again. Clemmie was one of the top juveniles of last season, taking the Middle Park with a fine turn of foot from Albany winner Different League to end her campaign.

She was expected to take high rank in the Guineas but a hold up in March came at just the wrong time, meaning she had to miss the 1,000 Guineas. Her comeback in the Irish version wasn’t spectacular, but she had only just made that assignment according to her trainer and a huge improvement can be expected here which should have her on the premises.

Teppal gave David Simcock a first classic winner when quickening up best in what was a bunch finish to take the Poule D’Essai Des Pouliches. She’s only had three runs and could improve a great deal from her Pouliches win, her first of the season, although she will need to based on the bare form there. She had Coeur De Beaute just a short neck behind and she must be respected too based on that form here although had the previous advantage of a run, unlike fourth that day Capla Temptress.

Threading looked as if she’d returned to her best when beating a solid yardstick absolutely pointless at York and if that’s the case she’ll take some catching although that was a soft four runner event which didn’t test her stamina. The way Veracious won her maiden at Newmarket suggest she’s a group horse but this is some ask on her comeback.

Anna Nerium has already been beaten in the Guineas, for all she ran creditably, and all of Adorable, Aim Of Artemis, Whitefountainfairy and Nkosikazi must improve rapidly.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Billesdon Brook (13/2 Paddy Power)

5.00 – Sandringham Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap) (Str) (Class 2) (3YO only): As per usual, friendly competitive so we’ll cut straight to the chase. Ed Walker’s Argotera is an obvious favourite but she’s probably earned it after beating the easy Goodwood winner Four White Socks by over a length last time out. That was only her third start but crucially her first one on fast ground and previously she had been beaten just a length by Dathanna here. 7lbs better off with her from that run, she ought to take the beating.

It’s even more obvious to have the second favourited in the profile but the way that Qazyuna travelled through the early stages of the Pretty Polly suggested that a drop back to this trip wouldn’t suit and she was an impressive maiden winner before that when looking as if a big field handicap would be her thing in the future. Two horses have placed in the Pretty Polly as a route to Sandringham glory and the pace profile and track should see a career best.

Last but not least, Aidan O’Brien’s Broadway. She’s had just four runs and the only poor one took place on heavy ground when connections ran her over 12 furlongs. She was third in the Athasi Stakes afterwards when menacingly closing on the line – over a mile she might well have won – but she made amends with an easy win at Naas when the seconds and third both won subsequently. A frenetically run mile ought to suit.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Argotera (7/1 general), 1 pt each/way Qazyna (8/1 general), 1 pt each/wau Broadway (16/1 Bet365, 14/1 general)

5.35 – 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105): Charlie Appleby won this race with Rare Rhythm last year, a horse that had been off the track 371 days, so Eynhallow’s absence of 120 days isn’t a worry at all and he makes a lot of appeal. Twice a winner for Roger Charlton last year, he’s impressed in Dubai with two solid efforts at Meydan and could still more to give on his third run for the yard. On both those occasions he came from well back to take second behind Walton Street so the stiffer finish and stronger gallop her should be right up his street and a wide draw has not been an impediment in the past to success either.

Take a gamble on the Dubai form and back Walton Street too. The form of his last UK run has worked out brilliantly with Call To Mind now a group winner along with runner-up Count Octave.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Eyenhallow (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Walton Street (9/1 Coral, Bet Victor)

 

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Royal Ascot 2018 – Ladies Day preview and tips

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It’s Ladies Day at Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only): This doesn’t look appealing as a betting medium and if Shang Shang Shang can reach the level of most Wesley Ward raiders then she’ll take a lot of beating here. It hasn’t been the best week for her stable but if she can reproduce her comfortable win in a 12-runner maiden at Keeneland she should take some catching. The National Stakes is a key form line here and Clive Cox’s Koncheck might come out best, although Kinks didn’t get a run there and could be better running from the front. Aidan O’Brien’s juveniles by and large have all run very well so it’s interesting he sends Land Force here after his third at the Curragh in a listed event. Last time out winners The Paddocks, Rumble Inthejungle, Charming Kid, and Glory Fighter all would not be surprise winners.

Advice: 1 pt win Shang Shang Shang (9/2 Paddy Power)

3.05 – 1m2f Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo): Hunting Horn has had plenty of racing so far but his Prix du Jockey Club sixth is the best form here and if he is ahead of Key Victory (eighth that day) at the end here he ought to have a fighting chance of taking a seriously competitive race. Charlie Appleby’s Key Victory might improve a lot for a better surface and along with Dante fifth Nordic Lights and the deeply impressive maiden winner National Army.

Wadilsafa, who won decisively in a useful minor event at Newmarket over 1 mile, must improve but promises to enjoy this extra distance and he is also on the longlist along with Heron Stakes third Vintager.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Hunting Horn (6/1 general)

3.40 – 1m4f Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo): This is difficult to measure. Wild Illusion and Magic Wand’s Oaks form towers over the field and the latter particularly ought to enjoy being on a faster surface, but they have had 20 days to recover from a slog at Epsom and as Cracksman showed, that is no easy task. six winners since 1997 were being turned out again quickly after running the Investec Oaks but this year’s renewal was a particularly arduous grind. That could also count against Perfect Clarity, who was an impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial but who also couldn’t move her feet through Epsom’s ground.

Sun Maiden is an obvious choice and is a terribly exciting prospect after her romp in a Salisbury maiden by 12 lengths, but the second was a beaten favourite next time out by nine lengths as evens favourite so progression is needed if she’s going to justify favouritism and in an open race she can be taken on.

Since getting fast ground Athena has finished second in Newbury’s Oaks trial and broken her maiden at the seventh time of asking, and Aidan O’Brien’s charge could keep progressing here. This step upto 1m4f – especially around Ascot – could bring out more improvement (closely-related to Bracelet who won this race back in 2014 on her first go at the trip) and on a sound surface she’s looked like a new horse. Her second at Newbury over 10 furlongs to Sea Of Class rates as very strong form, with the winner having been a short price for the Oaks before she bypassed the race to win the Abdingon convincingly. Seven lengths back in this was Crystal Hope, who had impressively beaten the Musidora winner Give and Take and the Musidora third Highgarden (runs here) at Sandown.

Lady Of Shalott should be capable of better following her 4th to Perfect Clarity in the Lingfield Oaks Trial but she will need to improve a great deal and neither of Sarrochi or Sizzling make much appeal. Dancing Brave Bear, a staying on second in the Musidora, has place potential.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Athena (9/1 general)

4.20 – 2m4f Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): A monster renewal of the Gold Cup with three top quality stayers and Stradivarius can crown himself the staying king in a race to watch and savour. AA rapidly progressive stayer since taking the Queen’s Vase here last year, he has since won the Goodwood Cup when beating last year’s winner of this, Big Orange, and afterwards he was a fine third when dropped down in trip for the St Leger. He was beaten that day by Irish Derby winner Capri and Crystal Ocean, who has won two group contests already this season, with Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling behind him. He ended the year with a fine third on British Champions Day, behind Order Of St George when the ground was extremely testing and the race collapsed late. This faster ground will play right into his hands compared to then.

His return in the Yorkshire Cup, when he had the race won before Frankie Dettori got serious with him, was a perfect tune up and the only worry might be stamina if this is a real test over 2m4f, but he has not failed on that count so far and a small field ought to suit with only Torcedor and Mount Moriah known as front runners.

Order Of St George won this in 2016 and went down fighting in a titanic battle last year. He sets an imposing standard and has turned up quietly with a pair of easy wins in the Vintage Crop and Saval Beg Stakes. If there was to be one chink in his armour, it could be that he goes best with cut as his record shows, and today’s faster surface is a more level playing field between our selection and him.

The race is completed by the presence of Vazirabad, twice a winner of the Prix-Royal Oak and also a winner of the Prix du Cadran last year, along with a three-time winner of the Dubai Gold Cup. He comes here for the first time following a good tune up when he beat subsequent winner Marmelo in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier with plenty in hand (as he always does) and he has a tremendous each/way appeal at 6/1. Some may query his stamina and suitably for this ground but he’s a winner of the Cadran and a lack of potential pace should enhance his chances.

Desert Skyline should enjoy this step upto 2m4f, but he was beaten fair and square behind Stradivarius last time out at York even with a penalty and has also been well beaten by Order Of St George in the past.

Torcedor was a changed horse for front running tactics when spread-eagling the field in the Sagaro last time, but he won’t get such an easy time going half a mile further on fast ground and he was well beaten with fifth in this last year.

Sheikhzayedroad, Max Dynamite, Mount Moriah, and Scotland all have various amounts to prove.

Advice: Watch and enjoy

Just as difficult as the Hunt Cup yesterday but we won that so hopefully we can repeat the trick. The first two in our portfolio are hardly original choices and drawn next to eachother but they have outstanding form claims. George Of Heart was one of two horses to come from the back and take the first two positions in a 7-furlong handicap here; the winner that day was Society Rock, who would win upped in class at Goodwood and then take second in the Jersey yesterday. He looks as if he’ll improve for this extra furlong too, and if repeating the form he’s very well treated.

Curiosity made a fine start to his three year old season when going down by a neck to Symbolisation in a Newmarket handicap and that was boosted by the winner running fifth in the Irish Guineas and then the Jersey yesterday. If he steps forward he can hopefully make a late bid that is just as strong as our top choice.

Ostillo has just snuck in to add another string to Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s bow and he might prove to be their best chance. Possibly best known as the horse who was beaten by Without Parole at Yarmouth, he was eight lengths clear of the third that day and has since proven himself to be useful, making short work of the field on his handicap debut at Newmarket. A mark of 84 might have been lenient then but thankfully he’s snuck in there and Simon Crisford and Silvestre De Sousa have a terrific record together – they’ve won 25 races race together out of 84 at a very healthy 30 per cent.

Those who are greedy could do worse than to look at Aidan O’Brien’s James Cook. O’Brien won this in 2015 with War Envoy and all three of his contenders make some appeal although James Cook could be the most overpriced. A full brother to the magnificent Found, he made a good debut behind a subsequent Group 3 runner up at Naas and was then a convincing winner of a Leopardstown maiden from Latrobe, who has since finished second to group placed hunting Horn and finished second in the Gallinule Stakes. Things haven’t gone so well for him this season, but he didn’t handle Epsom on his return when he needed the run and one has to forgive his Dante run. A really strongly run stiff mile ought to bring out the best in him and it’s interesting he’s been tried at a mile now.

Bond Street and Landshark also took the eye.

Advice: 1 pt each/way George Of Heart (9/1 Bet365, 8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Curiosity (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Ostillo (16/1 general)

5.25 – 1m4f King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105): Godolphin have won three of the last four editions and had the 1-2 last year – once again they have two strong chances. Cross County gave plenty of hope that he’d improve a lot for this this trip when finishing a good second to a very smart prospect at Sandown when giving a stone to the winner. However, they might have an even stronger chance in Dubhe, who was deeply impressive on his three-year-old debut at Sandown.

It was his first time going beyond a mile and it’s no surprise that he thrived for it – he’s out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens – and if anything, a step upto this trip is overdue given how long it took for him to engage overdrive. Once he did get rolling, he put four lengths between himself and Communique, who reopposes here after winning the uber competitive London Gold Cup going away. That form has already been boosted by runners from that race finishing first and fourth at Epsom’s Derby meeting along with two runners up spots so the

Joseph O’Brien’s Downforce is the second to make the staking plan. The son of Camelot was making his debut going further than 1 mile at Navan when scythed through the field going downhill and eventually found enough to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The further he goes the better and having a proper pace to crack at will help matters too.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Dubhe (12/1 Coral), 1 pt each/way Downdraft (365 Bet365)

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Justify Becomes “Lucky #13” On The List Of Triple Crown Winners

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Four months ago, Hall of Fame horse racing trainer Bob Baffert knew. After all, very few others saw what Baffert saw: that Justify, the chestnut colt that was only three years old, and had never run a race previously, was a special talent.

Then Justify won its first two races, and the world took notice. Baffert’s premonitions, that Justify was a raw talent who could go down in history, were proven true.

And on that fateful June 9th afternoon, when Justify became the 13th horse ever to earn the coveted Triple Crown, Baffert mustered up a simple but eloquent explanation of the victory: “It was meant to be.”

It wasn’t the fact that Justify was equally mesmerizing and dominant in his win at the Belmont Stakes. It was the fact that the horse was faced with running along the difficult post position along the rail, but was still able to break beautifully in the race, and capture a lead over the competition in a matter of seconds. Before the race was halfway through, Justify seemingly separated himself from the rest of the competition.

Justify’s jockey, Mike Smith, professed his pride in how the horse was able to overcome the tough position in the race. It’s likely that Justify had no idea that he entered the race as a 4-5 favourite to win it, but the horse ran the race in the way you’d expect a winner to do so. Justify ran the 1.5 miles seemingly with ease, and even as eventual runner-up Gronkowski — named for NFL star Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots — crept on a distance of only two lengths back, Justify never looked like he lost control of the race.

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Baffert did admit to feeling some nerves through the first quarter-mile of the race, as Justify go out to a fast start, but as the rest of the horses began to low down along the back stretch — and Justify didn’t — he was more at ease. Baffert did have a lingering worry that Justify would seemingly “run out of gas” in the final length of the race, but on the contrary, Baffert again praised Smith and the horse for finding “another gear” to finish off the race definitively.

But Baffert shouldn’t have worried all that much. After all, he knows a few things about training and watching championship horses. Baffert also trained American Pharoah, the horse that won the Triple Crown back in 2015. Baffert has now won more Triple Crown races than anyone in existence, but like any great leader of an organization, he was effusive in his praise for the team that helped Justify perform so admirably.

After becoming only the 13th thoroughbred to win horse racing’s triple crown, Justify is now six-for-six in the races he’s run this year. He joins the great Seattle Slew as the only undefeated horse to win to win all three races with an undefeated record (Slew did so back in 1977). Justify helped Baffert and team cash in as well; the horse earned the team over $2.9 million in prize money, after winning all three legs of the Triple Crown.

Will’s Wisdom – Al Shaqab Lockinge Day

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1.50 – Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo): If Juliet Capulet is ready to run to her best then she’s be of serious interest and John Gosden has carried all before him so far this season. The form of her fine win in the Rockfel, along with a stiff 6 furlongs at Newbury promising to suit her a lot, and if anything, it’s a surprise that this hasn’t been tried earlier.

This drop back to 6 on fast ground ought to see an improvement from Murillo, who was third in the Coventry last season before not getting the surface he needed, and with his pace making duties fulfilled in the 2,000 Guineas he should take the beating and he edges out Eqtidaar, a half-brother to 2,000 Guineas second Massaat who made a good reappearance at Ascot recently.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Juliet Capulet (8/1 general)

2.25 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+): The return of Crystal Ocean in the Gordon Richards was very impressive and he’s even better at 12 furlongs, probably his best trip. Defeat would surprise here. Second Step and Raheen House can fight it out for second ahead of Scarlet Dragon and Buildmeupbuttercup.

Advice: No bet.

3.00 – Al Zubarah London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo): The way that He’s Amazing fought so hard to take a first handicap when upped to this trip for the first time at Newmarket was very taking. The runner-up disappointed when favourite next time but he was ahead of Dukhan (reopposes, and wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and that form also gives him the technical beating of Mekong, albeit with the provision that all three really ought to improve again tomorrow and throughout the season.

The favourite was second here over a mile before in a decent maiden, when the reopposing Chief Ironside was two lengths behind before winning a Chester maiden so his claims are strong and he makes each/way appeal.

Masaarr – no, not that one – is a worthy favourite after a Doncaster Mile win which screamed plenty of improvement for stepping up in trip. He was hit with an 8lbs rise from the handicapper for that but really ought to have that much in hand and should take the beating.

Advice: 1 pt each/way He’s Amazing (8/1 general)

3.40 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): A fascinating 16-strong field including nine rivals rated between 115 and 119 and a big step up for Addeybb, although he is the most progressive of them and fancied to arrive at the top table. He was incredibly impressive in the Bet365 Mile when leaving the useful Stormy Antarctic in the dust in a matter of strides, confirming that his Lincoln win was no fluke. He will need to step forward again and handle good to firm ground but there’s no suggestion that he shouldn’t and he appears nearly guaranteed to run his race whilst several others have question marks over them.

The fast ground ought to be suitable for a number of these, but none more so than Lancaster Bomber who is a big contender if the ground stays dry. Last season he was fourth in the 2,000 Guineas, second in the St James’s Palace, then second in both the Woodbine and Breeders’ Cup Mile before finishing a fine fifth in the Hong Kong Vase. He was disappointing on his return at Meydan but all of his stablemates have improved a great deal for their opening runs and he is worth forgiving.

Rhododendron’s Guineas second would give her a decent chance in this but she takes a step back from racing over long trips and appears a bit short, having finished second in the Oaks at one time last year. There’s no doubting her talent but it is a slight surprise to see her here compared to the Tattersalls Gold Cup. An extremely strong gallop is needed for her chances.

Limato is worth another try at this trip, having got no run when last trying it, and he was deeply impressive in the Challenge Stakes when last seen. He should be on the scenes if he’s fit whilst it would be unwise to rule out Beat The Bank on the basis of a poor effort in the QEII when last seen.

Deauville is an honest horse although he’s not run to the level of his third in the Queen Anne Stakes in two runs this year. That said an honest gallop and straight mile should bring out plenty in him and he’s got more speed than War Decree, the last of the O’Brien four.

Librisa Breeze is interesting. A winner over 10 furlongs earlier in his career, he’s blessed with speed as readers will know and perhaps this will suit more than last time. The really interesting of the bigger priced ones is Suedois. He was fourth at the Breeders’ Cup and before that he had previously won the Shadwell Turf Mile in fine style for David O’Meara. He looks genuinely overpriced for those trying to land a shock result.

Zabeel Prince is taking a big step up from listed company and has potential whatever happens although he might find more suitable targets than this.

Lightning Spear, Zonderland, and Alexios Komnenos, are all lightly raced enough but they might be seen to better effect later in the year.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Addeybb (13/2 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Lancaster Bomber (12/1 Coral, Bet365)

4.15 – Olympic Glory Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 2) (2yo): If The Irish Rover had jumped out of the stalls at Ascot he would have won and done so with a degree of comfort. That experience ought to have brought him on a good deal, but he will improve for a sixth furlong at Newbury and on debut, he caught the eye when just behind leading Coventry contender Sergei Prokofiev on debut at Dundalk. Dave Dexter won a maiden here on debut a month ago and was then third at Ascot, but if anything, that was a better effort and he has wanted this sixth furlong since debut.

Barbill impressed when winning a Five Furlong Novice Stakes at Bath whilst it is a vote of confidence from Richard Hannon that he sends It’s the Only Way here after Brighton and Kempton wins. Marie’s Diamond was well on top in the final furlong at Bath when well backed. This much faster ground will be a big change but she’s clearly useful.

So too is Almufti, an interesting newcomer who cost connections 120,000gns as a yearling. The son of Toronado is well related and connections have owned the winner of this for the last two years running, suggestions that he has taken high rank at home.

Advice: 2 pts win The Irish Rover (15/8 general)

4.50 – Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo): Crystal Hope was dominant at the end of her fine return in a Sandown Novice Stakes, and the second and third home from that race were first and fourth in the Musidora Stakes this week at York, suggesting that the form at the very least is solid. The Musidora didn’t appear to be the strongest renewal beforehand but even then, a basic repeat of that form gives her the beating of this field and she looks really quite promising.

Sea Of Class was plenty green when beaten a neck by Ceilidhs Dream on her Newmarket debut and improvement can be expected although a direct line through Ceilidhs Dream leaves her with a lot of ground to make up on the favourite and attitude issues are also a potential concern.

Stream Song was a game winner of a Windsor handicap on her seasonal return and only her fourth start, and she can improve plenty for that here and Athena, an interesting representative of Ballydoyle, finally gets onto some fast ground too.

Advice: 4 pts win Crystal Hope (11/10 general)

5.25 – Toronado Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105): Pouvoir Magique ended up as a non-runner in the Victoria Cup that Ripp Orf won with such a brilliant ride from Hayley Turner but such is the promise of John Gosden’s charge that he can justify favouritism here. The booking of Ryan Moore on Surrey Hope is notable whilst if Dean Ivory can get the best out of Flaming Spear.

Advice: 1 pt win Pouvoir Magique (7/2 general)

 

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Grand National 2018 A-Z plus Aintree tips

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5.15 – 4m2½f Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (7yo+)

VERDICT: This is going to be the most testing national since 2001 when Red Marauder beat Smarty by a distance; That day 40 runners faced the starter but only four completed the course, including two that had been remounted, a practice which is now not allowed. It ought to be a special test of stamina with the ground at a premium and it looks tailor made for Baie Des Isles. She is very young for a race of this type but that she has run fine races in the Irish and Welsh Nationals in her 12 chase starts and the form of her warmup at Punchestown has been boosted out of sight with the first two heavily involved in the finish of the Irish National. Katie Walsh rides these fences beautifully, she will sluice through the surface, and she is a normally sound jumper with a crucially low racing weight to boot. Another female jockey could be in line to take a huge hand with Bryony Frost looking the perfect partner to join forces with Milansbar. The last time the two ere united they made a well contested renewal of the Classic Chase an absolute procession and two fine runs over long distances ought to have him just right for this test assuming he can lay up with the early posse.

More faith is needed for The Dutchman, who stopped like a light in the Peter Marsh but who had been rapidly progressive beforehand, especially when beating Captain Redbeard by 13 lengths in the Tommy Whittle on some of the foulest winter ground Haydock had to offer, and everything about him suggests he ought to be suited by this test. He is worth forgiving that full effort given the raw staying power he has.

Pleasant Company might not have appeared to get home but he’s better handicapped than many who return from last year and if he can put in a clean round there might be more left at the finish this time from Willie Mullins’ charge.

Blaklion ought to go very well once again although after not quite getting home last year this much more testing ground is a negative against him and the ground isn’t terrific news for Gold Cup third Anibale Fly, although both him and Total Recall need to be seriously considered. Of the favourites, it’s Tiger Roll who makes the most appeal after his fine Cheltenham win with his stamina confirmed for the job although Seeyouatmidnight will go well to boot. One mention for Raz De Maree, the hardest horse to leave

Advice: 1.5 pts each/way Baie Des Iles (18/1 Coral, 16/1 general), 1 pt each/way Milansbar (33/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Hills), 1 pt each/way The Dutchman (22/1 Paddy Power, Betfair), 1 pt each/way Pleasant Company (33/1 general)

A-Z Guide

Alpha Des Obeaux: Useful horse who took the Clonmel Oil Chase and doesn’t mind revelling in soft ground, but hasn’t repeated that effort since although he’s run fairly in top level races, including Irish Gold Cup; It is a worry that his worst effort this season came in the Many Clouds Chase on the Mildmay Course and others appeal as being in better form for all that he has ability.

Anibale Fly: Always useful as a novice chaser and has really found his stride when upped in trip this year, making a procession of what’s arguably Ireland’s best handicap chase in the Paddy Power when winning by no less than nine lengths off mark of 148 (rated 159 here; still well in); Upped in class to Irish Gold Cup and had not finished by any means when falling heavily two out and proved himself with fine third in Gold Cup, travelling well into the race and putting in very sold finishing effort for third; Normally a sound jumper and can take a front rank position with ease but never been further than the Gold Cup trip and would have preferred better ground; Still respected.

Baie Des Isles: Young horse – only seven – but plenty of experience in heavy ground staying handicap chases, including a fifth in 2017 Welsh National, race which has worked out well (winner since won Gold Cup, two other National winners come from it) and then showed impressive stamina and surefootedness to take Punchestown Grand National Trial; First two runs this season over hurdles/inadequate trip and didn’t shape badly in Punchestown National trial when the first two were then involved in finish of Irish national, also a gruelling race; If getting into rhythm, can go very well.

Blaklion: Travelled beautifully and jumped with fine panache when fourth in this last year, having been backed into favouritism, and looked the winner for much of the race too; Possibly sent on too early and then faded into fourth, although it must be a possibility he didn’t quite see it out as well as the first three; Romped home in the Becher Chase when beating The Last Samuri by nine lengths but worry that he’s given nothing away to handicapper despite 9lbs rise being fair and possible that it wasn’t wisest decision to enter him in Haydock Grand National trial when he was legless in second; Wind operation since will help and much in his favour but not sure he wants it this soft over this distance; Respected.

Bless The Wings: Plenty of form in long distance, soft ground handicap chases, having come within half a length of winning the 2012 Irish National and then been beaten only by Our Duke in last year’s edition; Took the December cross country but that his only finish in his last four starts, the big worry for him here, and he could find it difficult to come from the rear too. The ground has turned against him late and whilst he has talent, others might be better suited to this.

Buywise: Finally got that valuable win which he deserved so much when taking the Veterans’ Final at Sandown, seeing out a stiff three miles with purpose having moved through most of the field in one swoop four out; That was a fine win and a better jumper nowadays although a worry that he will lose his spot and get well behind which is hard.

Captain Redbeard: Was going quite well in the Grand Sefton when hampered badly at the 14th, where his winning chances ended; He then went and made amends in the Tommy Whittle and did so in fine style, pouring on the pressure after the last to  win by nine lengths from a next time out winner; His jumping went to pot when he was well beaten in the Peter Marsh Chase, however, and whilst hurdle win afterwards a nice warm-up a better round needed whilst doubts about just how far he does stay.

Carlingford Lough: Dual winner of the Irish Gold Cup in 2015 and 2016 and also took the Punchestown Gold Cup in 2016; Nothing wrong with his 2017 although he only made the track twice, finishing a solid fourth in the Irish Gold Cup; Hasn’t done a thing since but has dropped to 152 and does have a Grade 1 win on heavy ground, but not the best jumper and possible he’ll be out of his ground.

Chase The Spud: Disappointing in the Welsh National although he followed an extremely strong pace in some of the winter’s heaviest ground and it’s possible that the Eider came too soon for him; Previously he’d ground out the Midlands National and then taken and then a valuable handicap chase at Haydock, on soft and heavy ground respectively; The form of those races has worked out well and if he can get into a rhythm then few would be stouter stayers.

Children’s List: Doesn’t lack for talent but not particularly experienced over fences, with just the four runs so far; Form of his one chase win, a gutsy success over Edwulf, now looks a lot better but he didn’t seem to take to the Punchestown Grand National trial last time when a poor round of jumping exposed his inexperience, and this looks a year too early at least.

Delusionofgrandeur: Front running type for Sue Smith who nearly led the field all the way in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby; Chased the pace in the Edinburgh National but faded then (4m1f, soft) and then a respectable third in the final of the Challenger Series at Haydock; Goes on soft but heavy an unknown.

Double Ross: A real old hand now at the age of 12 and years of experience in big handicap chases, and many of them have been on this course, including a fifth in the Topham (2014) and Grand Sefton (2015); Was actually going well before his saddle slipped going around Canal Turn the second time round, ending his race; Been in and out since that but retains a good amount of his ability based on fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and can go well for a long way here.

Final Nudge: Enjoys a marathon trip and ran much better than most when third in the Welsh National to Raz De Maree, and he is well handicapped on that form, being 13 lengths better off for a 15 length defeat; Not so great since when fifth at Sandown but might well have finished close rin the Kim Muir had he not lost a shoe; However as a dour grinder he will keep going when many have stopped and perfect racing weight for him here; Catches the eye.

Gas Line Boy: A real stalwart of long distance chasing and put together a succession of career best efforts ass he’s gotten older, fourth in the 2017 Veterans Final at Sandown and then the Grand National Trial before a great effort when fifth in this race last year; Has been in great form since and beat the Topham winner in the Sefton (over these fences in December) and nothing not to like but faded after the last and over this more testing surface stamina a worry; Otherwise nothing not to like.

Houblon Des Obeaux: Plenty off back class and can still put up a real show in long distance handicap chases, finishing third in the Welsh and fourth in the Midlands National of last year; Perhaps this ground will suit more than the decent surface on which he was seventeenth in this last year, having been out the back from the third last; Tendency to drop himself out at the back of the last.

I Just Know: Not all that exposed as a chaser and certainly not a staying handicapper, as he showed when dominating eight other runners to win the Yorkshire National at Catterick (3m6f, soft ground). Got a hammering from handicapper for that but was well worth the win and has had a perfect permeation with a nice break before a warmup over hurdles; Sue Smith won this with Aurora’s Encoure in 2013 and not to be underestimated.

Lord Windermere: The 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner who hasn’t repeated his run that day since, and as such is winless since then; Best run in the past two years probably his effort in this last year but he was a well beaten seventh and has dropped just 3lbs, whilst he fell in the Becher Chase when last seen; Others make much more appeal.

Maggio: Found huge career best from out of nowhere for a spectacular 12 length win in the 3 mile handicap chaser on this card two years ago on the Midday course, but has never really come to close to repeating that and tough to make a form or handicapping argument for him on that basis.

Milansbar: Wasn’t going well when unseating in the Wlesh National but has been a different horse since then and his dismantling of a competitive field in the Classic Chase (Warwick, 3m5f, strong yardstick Cogry second) one of the best trials seen for this during the whole season; Liked to be to the forefront of affairs which is good in this.

Pendra: Subject of much attention in the betting for two of the last three Cheltenham Festivals and performed creditably in both, first of all fifth in the Ultima (2015) and second in the Kim Muir (2017); Reappeared in the same race this year but didn’t cut much ice; Now had his first run after a wind operation and tongue tied first time but record of tenth in 2014 Irish National and 13th in this in 2016 suggests much more needed to make it third time lucky.

Perfect Candidate: Talented and robust stayer who impressed when taking Veterans’ Chase at Exeter last January, but then came here last year and was never quite in touch before belting the 26th and being pulled up straight away; Perhaps this was just a bit quick for him on the ground and proved he’s still got it when he beat Vicente at Cheltenham in November and maybe this ground will suit him more although headgear needs to make him take interest if he’s to show his best.

Pleasant Company: Winner of the Pat Taafe and Bobbyjo Chases last season and few had travelled between the until he belted Valentines the second-time round, and from then on whilst he went well, he faded behind several of these into ninth; Hasn’t cut much ice this season but tough to expect too much on his first start in the Paddy Power and the Thyestes came in a sticky surface where not many mudlarks took to the racing that day; Races off same mark which leaves him well handicapped compared to many who take another shot here and ground shouldn’t be an issue for him; Not impossible he can improve his position with a clean round so don’t give up on him yet.

Raz De Maree: Veteran 13 year old who hasn’t always been the cleanest of jumpers but he’s amongst the stoutest of stayers and it was a strong looking renewal of the Welsh National which he won on nearly unraceable ground (race had to be rescheduled) and did so with a terrific late charge; Not his fault that he fell here last year (ducked left to avoid fallen horse and unseated rider at Bechers first time round) and only Native River beat him in the Welsh National the season before last; With clear round, must be a major player.

Regal Encore: Blows very hot and cold but when he’s hot he’s hot, as he showed when he was third only to Whisper and Total Recall in the Ladbroke Trophy and then strong at the end when taking the Keltbray Siwnley Chase at Ascot; Eighth last year when he got out of his ground but went through a load of beaten horses late; Not sure that this ground suits much more but can’t be ruled out if on a going day.

Road To Riches: Just isn’t the same horse as the graded staying chaser in the 2015/16 season, when injury contravened and he’s never looked the same horse since; In any case, ground and trip huge question marks and not one on the shortlist.

Saint Are: Aintree specialist who comes alive around here, winner of the Sefton Novice Hurdle as a novice and a fantastic chaser around here, third in the 2015 Becher before being beaten only by Many Clouds in the National of that year itself; That took place on good ground and a sound surface is key to his chances, as shown when he was pulled up next year when the ground was soft, only to bounce back with a fine third last year; Wouldn’t read into his two efforts this season but ground ruined his chances.

Seeyouatmidnight: Was a classy novice chaser who didn’t mind getting his toe stuck in and ended that season with a fantastic third in the Scottish National; Only the four runs since and feeling that this has been the target, with just the one warm-up run a satisfactory outing at Newbury in which he did nothing spectacular; Sound jumper, real fighter and will not be far away.

Shantou Flyer: Real murdlark who has strung together a potent run of runner up efforts, the latest of them coming when he was just unable to overhaul Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima at Cheltenham; Worry for him is that he didn’t get into the thick of things last year, pulling up after the 24th having gotten behind; Maybe this ground is going to be more suitable for him but others appeal more.

Tenor Nivernais: Widily impressive when a 30 length winner of the Keltbray Swinley Chase but then was beaten afterwards at Kelso and he then never got into a rhythm when he was 17th and hasn’t shown much more since; Perhaps this ground suits more but didn’t take to the race and much more is needed.

The Dutchman: Been on quite the journey this season, first running into the subsequent Grade 1 winner Sam Spinner in the Fixed Brush Hurdle and not backing that up when below par at Cheltenham, but when reverting to fences, he just went to the front and ran his opposition into the ground to dominate the Peter Marsh with the very solid Captain Redbeard 13 lengths behind; Was pulled up in the Grand National Trial but stopped quickly that day and had been travelling sweetly through the first circuit; Blood found in his nostrils that day so run and be written off and now of real interest.

The Last Samuri: Exemplary form over this fences, second in 2016 Grand National, then a close second in the Becher in December of that year; Those efforts took their toll on his handicap mark and he was 16th last year under top weight; Second, beaten by nine lengths, in this year’s Becher Chase and a fine third in the Cross Country at Cheltenham Festival 2018, but there’s a feeling his best chance has gone at the weights.

Thunder And Roses: 2015 Irish National winner although he’s not won since; That said, he was fourth in the 2017 renewal and still has ability judged on the way he was going in the Leinster National when he fell four out; Disconcerting that he fell again in the Irish National when he fell at the seventh but if he gets into a rhythm then he’s capable.

Tiger Roll: Long and rich record of success at the Cheltenham Festival, with three wins in 2014, 2017 and this year; The latter two, a dominant winner of the 4 Mile Novices’ Chase, and then a gutsy success over the Cross Country Course this season (3m6f, soft) show stamina ought not to be an issue; The main worry is how a smaller horse than most will take to these fences but the Cross Country is hardly the worst preparation and if he even half takes to this he’s got to have one of the main chances.

Total Recall: Has just had a magic season for Willie Mullins since moving from Sandra Hughes, romping home in the Munster National on his first start for the yard and then stepping up to down the RSA Chase second Whisper in the Ladbroke Trophy by a head with Regal Encore eight lengths behind; Impossible for connections to resist easy pot over hurdles at Leopardstown but wasn’t out of things when he fell in the Gold Cup for all that distance Native River and Might Bite put between themselves and the field suggests he would have been booked for third; One of the class angles into the race and lots to like, but this distance on such ground has to have a question mark for his chances; Major player.

Ucello Conti: Not a frequent winner but one of the most talented handicap chasers around and a sound jumper of these fences, sixth in 2016, fourth in the Becher Chase of that year, then in the act of putting another solid round together before he stumbled at Becher’s so badly Daryl Jacob couldn’t stay on; Second to Anibale Fly in Paddy Power is a fine effort, but worry that he had nothing extra down the finish in 2016 on soft, when beaten 37 lengths.

Valseur Lido: Was a quality top staying chaser in 2016, winning the JN Wine Champion Chase by 11 lengths and then finishing a very creditable fourth in the Lexus that Christmas; Had to take year off and whilst reappearance in Lexus this season suggested he retained all his ability, has gone wrong way since and doesn’t appear to be in love with heavy ground compared to better surfaces.

Vieux Lion Rouge: Another who’s familiar with these fences and is a very reliable handicap chaser, having showed a great attitude to win the 2017 Becher Chase and then follow up in the Betfred National Trial; Swung his way around here last year and came with his challenge around the home turn, but was getting outstayed before the last fence and eventually faded to be sixth, beaten 27 lengths; The year before on a soft surface he had weekender more and finished seventh, beaten 48 lengths, and whilst he handles this ground it appears he doesn’t handle this trp.

Virgilio: Bumped into some smart rivals as a novice and when he’s good he’s very good, as shown when a comprehensive win here in May; Not backed that up in two starts since so no surprise he’d had wind surgery; Worry that he’s never gone this far and he’d probably want the ground better too, so others preferred.

Walk In The Mill: Impossible to miss connections, with Sam Whaley-Cohen having an exemplary record around these fences and Robert Walford being a shrewd operator here; Has put up solid efforts twice when upped to 3 miles at Ascot, the best of them when third to Gold Present in a valuable handicap chase there; Didn’t take to heavy ground as well as The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh and that is a serious worry.

Warriors Tale: A nose away from taking two good handicaps this season already, and the form of his second to Gold Present at Newbury has worked out an absolute treat; Nothing wrong at all with his close second to Wakanda in the SkyBet Chase either with many solid horses in behind and this sound jumping type can take to Aintree, but this would be his first time on heavy and there’s a worry about that and his stamina too.

Tips for the other Aintree races:

1.45 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Dream Berry (15/2 Paddy Power, Betfair) NON-RUNNER
1.45 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Connetable (12/1 general0)
2.25 Aintree – 2 pts win On The Blind Side (15/8 general)
3.40 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Rocklander (8/1 general)
3.40 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Wakanda (14/1 general)

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Ladies Day at Aintree 2018 – Preview and Tips

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Thanks to Will for today’s preview. If you need tickets for Aintree you can buy them here – Buy Aintree Tickets.

1.45 – Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Two stand out from the field here. Who Dares Wins travelled beautifully into the Pertemps at Cheltenham Festival 2018 before he found the trip too far but this trip and course ought to suit him far more and whilst that was a hard race it was his first since November so hopefully he’ll be able to back the run up and going up just a pound for that effort has left him well treated by any reasonable standard.

Spiritofthegames is 10lbs higher than he was when winning well at Lingfield in November but every single pound of that has been earned and his fifth in the Country Hurdle built on a  fine third in the Betfair Trophy before that. This ground is not an issue to him having handled the testing surface at Cheltenham with aplomb and it might be that this trip around Aintree proves to be just right, so if not over the top after a very busy season he’s got all the ingredients to go very close.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Spiritofthegames (10/1 Bet365)

2.20 – Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

A big field but this has cut up a lot and Global Citizen ought to take the world of beating. His nine-length thumping of Scarlet Dragon in the Dovecote at Kempton was a stunning display and his second wide margin in since moving to the yard of Ben Pauling. He’s a soft ground winner too, so hopefully the surface won’t be a problem, and we know the trip and track should be just fine.

Vision Des Flos has a lot of promise for the future and his Ballymore sixth was a lovely effort but this is a far sharper test, his quickest so far, and he may be more of a stayer. Of more interest is the 4-year-old Style De Garde, who was second when by far the best at the weights in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, and who has been chosen as the prime representative for the Nicky Henderson yard which has started the festival in great form.

Slate House has struggled since his fine win in a Grade 2 earlier in the season at Cheltenham but this ought to suit him a good deal more than the Grade 2 races he ran in at Cheltenham twice even if he would probably be better suited to going a little bit further on better ground. He retains plenty of promise though. It would be unwise to write off Impact Factor, who was beaten by the useful Hardline in a Grade 2 from the front, and Lalor, who has had the ground go against him.

Advice: 3 pts win Global Citizen (2/1 general)

2.50 – Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Trappy and not a race to spend a lot of time on and maybe Elegant Escape can be the one. His RSA Chase third looks close to the best recent form and he’s a solid jumper for whom a long straight looks ideal. It’s hoped he’s not over the top as that looked the case with Black Corton when he was a tired fifth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, and a hard race was certainly had by Ms Parfois when she was nosed out of the 4-miler by Rathvinden there. Mia’s Storm makes a lot of appeal on ground of freshness but her jumping when to pot in the Kauto Star at Kempton and her best efforts have come on a much better surface. Terrefort, if staying this trip, is an obvious favourite and should make a bold bid.

The form of Snow Falcon’s fifth in the Flogas stands up very well here and if he didn’t tired himself out when getting to the 13th and falling in the Irish National then he’s overpriced – Coo Star Sivola, the winner of the Ultima Chase at the Festival – buy tickets for Cheltenham Festival 2019, has mastered the hang of jumping finally although he was handicapped brilliantly to win at the Festival and this is a whole lot tougher.

Advice: No bet.

 3.25 (Mildmay) JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1)

The market has this as being between the Champion Chase runner up and Ryanair winner and the vote goes to Min although I won’t recommend a bet at the odds, who was exemplary in defeat at the Festival. He found only the exceptional Altior too good then and travelled and jumped in a manner that would have won most renewals of the Champion Chase, and he was not stopping up the hill despite the brilliance of Altior. Stamina will be key today, given just how strong Balko Des Flos was when winning the Ryanair, when he gave a comprehensive beating to Un De Sceaux (Cloudy Dream over 10 lengths back in third that day) having actually travelled the better of the two through the home straight. He will expose any flaws in Min’s armoury and has to be the biggest threat with Politologue respected although he has to turn around a large deficit with Min.

Le Prezien was a fine winner of the Grand Annual but this is a totally different test and he could be exposed up in class here and Sizing Granite was back to his form when winning at Newbury but he has a completely different task now.

Advice: No bet.

4.05 – Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

One of the finer sights of the week. Ultragold hasn’t cut much ice on his last two starts but he took to the course with aplomb when he won this last year and his second in the Grand Sefton since when outstayed by the Grand National Contender Gas Line Boy shapes really well. He had to cope with deep ground here in December but that did not hamper him one bit, and he ought to go very well today.

Theatre Territory is having her first start over these fences but few riders know this course better than Sam Whaley-Cohen and her last two starts, a third in Kempton’s big three mile handicap chase, and before that a second to the subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Mister Whitaker when the pair were 17 lengths clear of Sizing Tennessee, a very useful market who was then third in the 4 Miler (had previously pushed Yanworth all the way in the Dipper on New Year’s Day). The likely pace will be very strong but the fact she gets further should help and she’s a sound jump who’s well handicapped.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Ultragold (16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Hills)

4.40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

An unappealing race given how gruelling the Albert Bartlett was this year. EBF Mares Hurdle final winner Roksana and EBF Handicap final winner Sam’s Gunner have not exactly had a lot more rest though, given that both had to slog to their victories with gaps of 20 and 34 days to this race. Of the two Roksana, who has been progressive all season, is preferred, although of the favourites OK Corral, who looks nimbler than stablemate Santini, looks the best option around Aintree’s three mile test although a number of contenders are worth taking seriously including Chef Des Obeaux and Poetic Rhythm.

Advice: No bet.

5.15 – Weatherbys Racing Bank Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2)

The market support given to Nicky Henderson’s Mister Fisher before his debut at Kempton and in the leadup to this event suggest that he takes high rank amongst the bumper horses at Seven Barrows and his impressive performance there was that of a horse who can quickly make up the step to graded company. There’s not much established form in his Kempton bumper but Rhythm Is A Dancer was beaten three lengths further by him than he was by other contender Severano on his debut at the same course, and Mister Fisher ought to improve.

He will need to go some to beat Danny Kirwan and Pym, an impressive 1-2 in a Kempton bumper who have been saved for this, bypassing the Cheltenham Festival. Mercy Mercy Me comes from the Champion Bumper, having finished eight there, and might be better suited by this ground which whilst still soft, is not nearly as testing or gluey as it was at Cheltenham, and he’s of interest.

Advice: No bet.

TODAY’S AINTREE LADIES DAY TIPS:

1.45 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Spiritofthegames (10/1 Bet365)

2.20 Aintree – 3 pts win Global Citizen (2/1 general)

4.05 Aintree – 1 pt each/way Ultragold (16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Hills)

Grand National Thursday 2018 – preview and tips

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Thank you to Community Member Geoff Handley for his thoughts on today’s card at Liverpool. Buy tickets for today, Ladies Day and Grand National Day 
1.45 Aintree : 20f
 
Brain Power ran a cracker in the Arkle at Cheltenham Festival 2018 but has raced mainly over 2m (16f ) & could be vulnerable stepping up in trip. Finian’s Oscar has never impressed me with his jumping, finished 5th at Cheltenham; ran ok but not really seeing things out. Modus is another who didn’t jump well last time at Cheltenham and could be difficult to place now. Cyrname has run well over this distance, an exuberant type and likely to set the pace here and make it a true test for Brain Power. He has scope as a chaser but seems to be better going right handed, will go close if he copes OK left handed. The big danger could be Rene’s Girl from Skelton’s yard. The mare receives an allowance, bids for a hat-trick, jumps well and looks good ew value. The outsider is the Irish challenger Calino D’Airy who ran OK at Leopardstown last time. He travelled well but found nothing at the finish but is another who has yet to run over 20f.
 
2.20 Aintree : 16f
 
Don’t underestimate Nube Negro for Skelton’s yard, 10/1 tomorrow. I backed it at Cheltenham and he ran a grand race to be third, travelling strongly throughout but steps up in class here though. The one I fancy is We Have A Dream from Nicky Henderson’s Lambourn yard, unbeaten in all 4 UK starts, impressive each time, he missed Cheltenham. Stable mate Apple’s Shakira cost punters a fortune in the Triumph where I got the impression she needs a stiffer test. This 16f Aintree course might be too much a test of speed and I’m surprised she hasn’t been stepped up to 20f. Malaya also gets the female allowance and is a good sort but I don’t think she is as good as Henderson’s duo. Paddleyourowncanoe probably needs further. There’s a rare French raider in the shape of Beau Gosse, but he was behind Malaya last time I can’t see him reversing the form. Et Moi Alors was turned over at 1/2 fav last time, disappointing and running in snatches. Gumball pulled up in the Triumph at Cheltenham but keep an eye on the Hobbs yard this week as he’s coming into some form. Irish raider Les Arceaux has some fairly useful form but disappointed last time. Another Irish raider Cristal Icon won well last time but takes a huge step up in class and she is one to watch in future handicaps.
 
2.50 Aintree : 25f
 
No bet for me here. Might Bite ran a grand race to be second in the Gold Cup but had a hard race and Gold Cup runners don’t have the best of records in this race but he take some beating if none the worse from his exertions and is a grand sort. Definitly Red also ran in the Gold Cup but was slightly outclassed but some interesting facts about this one. His chasing record in fields of 10 or less: 1221311311. In fields greater than this number it reads:- FUP6. 8 runners line up in this.
 
3.25 Aintree : 20f
 
Supasundae will be all the rage here after his good second in the Stayers at Cheltenham. He runs here tomorrow instead of the 3m on Saturday now the Champion Hurdler is absent and looks the one to beat. No doubt the ew thieves will be on My Tent Or Yours but he is probably best at 2m. Old rival The New One was 12th in the Stayers and could well fight out a place. Cyurus Darius reverted back to hurdling and won well at Kelso but surely won’t win at this level. L’Ami Serge should run well with the emphasis back more on speed after an eighth in the Stayers and is a danger to Supasudae.
 
Aintree : 4.05 21f
 
Grand Vision is the one for me in the Foxhunter’s, but he’s not much of a price I’m afraid. I backed him at Cheltenham when he was travelling so well but didn’t he quite get home. A grand looking grey who should run well and top amateur Jamie Codd is booked to ride. Wells De Lune was too free over this much longer trip in the Cheltenham Foxhunters and wasa spent force some way out. His running style is likely to prove better suited to this race. An ex-Charlie Longsdon horse, I’ve seen him schooling a few times and he always looked well. His current trainer won the race last year and is ew value at 14/1. For the first time ever I had the winners of both Foxhunters last year at 20/1 and 16/1 but sadly didn’t back Pacha Du Polder this year!
 
Aintree 4.40 : 16f
 
The Red Rum Handicap and always a good race but very competitive. I’m focusing on three here. All of a sudden David Pipe has hit some form after a poor season where he’s had just 30 winners from 341 runners. I made a note of King’s Socks at Cheltenham, who finished 5th over 20f. He was travelling strongly but had no extra close home and I think he’ll be better over today’s trip. Also in the notebook went Thienval. He was 4th in the equivalent race at Cheltenham when he probably needed better ground. Runner up in this race last year and has 3lb lower this year so will surely go close. I attended the Cheltenham preview evening at Aintree and Charlie Longsdon was very keen on Bentelimar. He didn’t get in at Cheltenham but ran the following Saturday at Kempton where he was slightly disappointing but I got the impression that the run was needed and could be ew value at 20/1, but will need a good effort to beat the above two.
 
Aintree 5.15 17f
 
The concluding mares bumper where the Irish fav Getaway Katie Mai will be hard to beat with Jamie Codd on board but not much of a price and I will be looking at others ew. Dissavril went into the notebook after she won at Market Rasen. Ex-French, she looks very pacy. At 12/1 is Dunhallow Gesture who is trained by Anthony Honeyball; an excellent trainer of bumpers. She won on her only outing for Damien Murphy and having been sold for £100,000 since, showed improved form to follow up for new connections after 8 months off. Disputed lead, travelled well, went on end of back straight, ridden early in straight, hung left around 1f out, kept on. Like I said before Philip Hobbs is hitting form so watch out for Cedar Valley who won her only race at Taunton, forging clear. Bred to stay further, she will be running on at the end. Note that a four year old won this last year.
 
Good luck everybody!
Geoff

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