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FRED WINTER PREVIEW AND TIPS

March 8, 2017 by Oliver Wagner Leave a Comment

There’s less than one week to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and here’s a preview of the Fred Winter.

THE CONTENDERS

Mega Fortune 14/1 (151) – It’s highly unlikely that he will run here as he has been given very little chance from a mark of 151. Connections are far more likely to favour the Triumph Hurdle for which he would be a leading player.

Master Blueyes 10/1 (150) – He has been progressing very nicely this season and I personally believe that he would have beaten Charlie Parcs at Kempton if the favourite had stood up. He looked to have improved significantly since the pair previously met and came away strongly in the closing stages. I think the stiffer test at Cheltenham will suit him and he is definitely a player. However, a mark of 150 and likely top weight could be his undoing with a plethora of progressive and well handicapped horse below him. He is another that is likely to take his chance in the Triumph.

Landofhopeandglory 16/1 (147) – I was never his biggest fan and wasn’t as taken as many were with his first three performances over hurdles. He has subsequently been put in his place and I’m certain that a mark of 147 sees him have very little chance in a race like this.

Dinaria Des Obeaux 12/1 (139) – Dinaria Des Obeaux looks a very smart filly. She won convincingly on hurdling debut before chasing home Triumph hopefuls Mega Fortune and Bapaume at Leopardstown. She seemed to be done for a bit of toe last time out at Fairyhouse before staying on powerfully in the closing stages and meeting trouble in running before being awarded the race in the stewards room. I step up would be ideal for her in the longer term but I’m certain that a strongly run race at a stiff track will also see her perform well and she will get that here.

Divin Bere 7/1 (139) – Divin Bere won in tenacious fashion on her British debut at Huntingdon, beating none other than Master Blue Eyes narrowly despite having to concede 4lbs to the runner up. Given that Master Blueyes is now rated 150 it looks a useful piece of form. Divin Bere is entitled to improve for that run too and so he has an outstanding chance and could be firmly on the right side of the handicapper. He has significant experience to draw upon from his time in France and is well worth his place at the head of the market.

Dolos 14/1 (134) – A quick glance at his two runs so far would leave a positive impression seeing that he was beaten by a potential superstar in Defi Du Seuil and a decent horse in Air Horse One. However, Alan King’s The Unit gave him 16lbs and a beating the last day and whilst he is a decent horse and has gone on to win subsequently, he is no world beater and that performance does suggest to me that Dolos isn’t as well treated as some of Paul Nicholl’s horse have been in previous years. Whilst he could run well I don’t see him as a major player judged on what we have seen so far.

Poker Play 16/1 (133) – David Pipe’s gelding could be very well handicapped if some of his French form is taken literally. He was a close second behind Charlie Parcs in France in November last year. He made his UK debut at Kempton in January and was sent off 1/3 favourite but could only finish second to Fidux. He was keen in the early stages of that race though and there is every chance he will come on significantly for that experience. His starting price that day certainly suggests that he is very well regarded and from a mark of just 133 he could be nicely treated.

Domperignon Du Lys 10/1 (133) – He is two from three over hurdles and on the occasion he did not win he finished well behind the smart Defi Du Seuil. He is with the right trainer to fulfil his potential in Nicky Henderson, but he hasn’t achieved a substantial amount on the racetrack yet. A mark of 133 could underestimate his abilities and I think there is more to come, but he doesn’t look a superstar or a handicap good thing at this point.

Coeur De Lion 14/1 (133) – Coeur De Lion could potentially be very well treated here. He is 2 from 4 over hurdles having achieved two notable scalps in Forth Bridge and most recently Nicky Henderson’s Rather Be. On the two occasions that he met with defeat he came across decent animals in Defi Du Seuil and Don Bersy, both of which have won on multiple occasions subsequently. With all of his hurdles form having a solid look to it his mark of 133 could be quite lenient and there is every indication that more improvement is to come. Importantly, he appears to have a very likeable attitude and loves a battle, having been involved in several close finishes. That experience will be very useful in a large field competitive handicap like this. He definitely has leading claims.

Dreamcatching 8/1 (131) – He would appear to be the leading player for last year’s winning trainer Paul Nicholls. I tipped up Diego Du Charmil as a very strong fancy for the race last season but I’m not mad keen on Dreamcatching here. His trainer clearly thought he needed to get some experience into him and whilst he was impressive at Wincanton he beat absolutely nothing and the form is bordering on worthless. He has a lot more on his plate here and although nicely weighted I think he has a good bit to find. Whilst I wouldn’t be laying him I think he has been over bet already.

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Recommended Bets

1 PT EACH WAY – COEUR DE LION @ 14/1 (General) BOG NRNB

1 PT WIN – DIVIN BERE @ 7/1 (General) BOG NRNB

Although experience isn’t always the order of the day in this race as Diego Du Charmil proved last year, it is certainly a big help to have some solid looking form. The two that stand out for me based upon what they have achieved versus their official rating are Divin Bere and Coeur De Lion. The former could be very well treated based on his beating of the now highly rated Master Blue Eyes. The latter has run some fantastic races, all of which have worked out fairly well and his attitude in combination with being well potentially nicely handicapped is a huge draw. Both lok well treated and should run well here in a wide open contest.

Five Handicappers To Follow at Cheltenham Festival 2014

March 13, 2014 by Adam Webb Leave a Comment

Trackmate – Pertemps Final

A horse that will need no introduction to JPFestival.com readers. He first caught my eye last May when scooting clear in a three mile handicap hurdle at Aintree, where he travelled extremely well throughout the race and saw it out nicely. To see whether he would handle the undulations of Cheltenham, connections took their chance in the first Pertemps Qualifier of the season and he passed that test with flying colours. Although he only won by a head, it was a performance full of positives. His toughness was highlighted when he barged his way between horses at the fourth last. The way he made up ground going down the hill was especially taking and once he hit the front after the last, he was always doing enough to see off Benbane Head. The drying weather will be of a huge benefit to him as he needs at least good to soft ground to be seen at his best, so a big plus it will be the freshest ground on the New course hurdles track all week. At his current odds, he still represents value. It will be interesting to hear what his trainer James Evans has to say at tonight’s JPFestival.com Cheltenham Preview.

Back Trackmate at 16/1 with William Hill. £25 free matched bet for new customers.

Amigo – Kim Muir

This one is slightly more left field but is a horse that I have been waiting to run for a while now. He ran a really good race in the Welsh National where he travelled well before not seeing out the trip. Going back through his form, better ground shouldn’t be an issue as he won a handicap hurdle at Stratford last year on good to soft off top weight. The main worry would be whether he would get into the race but off a mark of 132, he looks well treated and could go very close for David Pipe who won this with Junior back in 2011.

Back Amigo at 25/1 with Paddy Power. £50 free matched bet for new customers.

Junction Fourteen – Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

A horse that is doubly entered however this is his preferred race rather the Coral Cup. He started his career over hurdles back in November, where he finished third to two useful types in Rydon Pines and Flemenson before just winning at Fontwell. On his handicap debut at Kempton on Boxing Day, he couldn’t have been more impressive when thrashing the opposition but the Lanzarote run can be forgiven as trainer Emma Lavelle admitted she shouldn’t have run. He did travel really well that day before fading and looking tired when falling at the last. Having had a break, he could be very dangerous off still a potential lenient mark of 137 plus Emma Lavelle won this race before with Pause And Clause back in 2010.

Back Junction Fourteen at 16/1 with William Hill. £25 free matched bet for new customers.

Anay Turge – Grand Annual

When looking through races like this, course form has to come under serious consideration and this Nigel Hawke trained grey fits the bill. This horse has a 100% record around Cheltenham over both courses and looked very good in November when beating Sew On Target ,who would also be of interest in this race, by two and three quarter lengths with the consistent Eastlake back in fourth. Eastlake came out and won in December beating several other Grand Annual contenders. Anay Turge looks nicely handicapped off 135 and beat a useful novice hurdler of Charlie Longsdon called Long Lunch in January at Southwell, before following up over course and distance last month. The better ground will be in his favour and his love of Cheltenham is a huge advantage.

Back Anay Turge at 20/1 with William Hill. £25 free matched bet for new customers.

Clarcam – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Although he isn’t as well handicapped as others, he’s a confirmed runner in this race and brings some good form as shown when second to Guitar Pete in a Grade Two over Christmas at Leopardstown and to Broughton at Musselburgh in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. With both of those prominent in the Triumph betting, he doesn’t have that much to find and a really strong run race would suit him perfectly. With Bryan Cooper likely to take the ride, he has a good chance to give Gordon Elliott a second win after Flaxen Flare last year.

Back Clarcam at 20/1 with William Hill. £25 free matched bet for new customers.

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2014 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Trends, Preview and Tips

March 9, 2014 by Stephen Smith Leave a Comment

Nicky Henderson’s Dawalan has been awarded favouritism in this year’s Fred Winter and is available at around 7/1.

Ante-post watchers can crawl through the entries looking for the faintest clues of a Sanctuaire-like plot. What should serve punters well is to adhere to the prevailing trends in this devilishly tough handicap hurdle.

8/9 rated between 124 – 133
8/9 were sired by a Group 1 flat winner
6/9 won within their last two starts
6/9 won carrying at least 10st 13lb
5/9 won their last start
5/42 of the horses rated 120 or below were placed

Henderson’s Dawalan enters the fray with likeable credentials. The horse achieved a RPR of 89 on the flat and has won within his last two starts. The French-bred will carry 11-0 and is a strong contender based on the key trends of the race. Henderson won the race in 2012 with the 40/1 shot Une Artiste and stands a great chance of making the frame.

Oliver Sherwood enters the intriguing 14/1 shot, Carry On Sydney. The trainer recently remarked that the horse was notably laid-back, but has some decent form this season, including a one-and-a-half length defeat to Dawalan in January. Off 10-4 the horse has seen his price chipped away with the knowledge that Sherwood’s had the Fred Winter as a target for a while.

Dispour may well be the pick of Donald McCain’s two entries. Priced at 33/1, his last two runs were fairly miserable including a thirty length defeat to My Tent Or Yours in February’s Jumpers’ Bumper. He’ll run off a decent mark and answers some of the key trends required to get into the shake-up. McCain named the horse as one of his most promising at the beginning of the season and could be a shrewd each-way play.

Preference is for Clarcam from Gordon Elliott’s yard. He’s never finished outside of the top three since joining Elliott and finished a good second in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial at Musselburgh recently. He’ll run off a good mark and is genuine enough to give backers value in a minefield of a race. Clarcam can be backed today at 16/1.

Looking back at the history of the race, only two of the previous nine winners had won one of their first two starts. Those horses had scope to improve at an attractive pace with the handicapper, affording them the chance to enter this race with eye catching performances. The last two years have produced winners at big prices – Flaxen Flare (25/1) & Une Artiste (40/1).

Selection – Clarcam – 20/1 (E/W) with William Hill

Selection – Carry On Sydney – 14/1 (E/W) with William Hill

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – History

Year	Form	Winner	Age	Weight	OR	SP	Trainer

2013	125	Flaxen Flare D	4	10-8	127	25/1	G Elliott (IRE)

2012	11114	Un Artiste D	4	10-8	127	40/1	N Henderson

2011	757	What A Charm	4	10-6	115	9/1	A Moore (IRE)

2010	531	Sanctuaire D	4	11-2	127	4/1F	P Nicholls

2009	52111	Silk Affair (5x)	4	10-4	125	11/1	M Quinlan

2008	531	Crack Away Jack D	4	11-10	133	14/1	E Lavelle

2007	22111	Gaspara (4x) D	4	10-11	130	9/2J	D Pipe

2006	4P1	Shamayoun D	4	11-3	124	40/1	C Egerton

2005	225	Dabiroun	4	11-4	124	20/1	P Nolan (IRE)