JPFestival.com

Horse Racing Tipster

You are here: Home / Archives for Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Festival 2018 review

by Leave a Comment

Thanks for Graham Richards of grahamrichardsonline.co.uk for this comprehensive review of Cheltenham Festival 2018.

If you’d like to save as much as £35 on official Cheltenham Festival 2019 tickets – BUY NOW.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day One – Champion Day

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Despite a game effort in second, Kalashnikov found Summerville Boy too strong in the closing stages. Kalashnikov has the size and scope to make an above average novice chaser. The winner lost a couple of lengths in the second last melee where both Western Ryder and Lostintranslation suffered interference. Summerville Boy will stay further. However, if his jumping improves he can develop into a Champion Hurdle candidate. Mengli Khan (Earplugs) deserves credit for a good run on ground far from ideal. He will improve again for good ground and a break to strengthen further (Fences may beckon). Paloma Blue is worth noting over fences next season along. Claimantakinforgan needs further while Western Ryder and Lostintranslation (Efforts marked up) can improve on their misfortune.

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novice’ Chase (Grade 1)

Following a suicidal pace set by Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados, Footpad, despite a bad mistake at the sixth, came through to win easily. The sectionals, and final time, suggest that despite handed the perfect scenario, he achieved one of the highest time figures recorded by a novice in the past decade. Talk of Gold Cup aspirations appear, to me, fanciful given his breeding and efforts over three-miles when hurdling. Brain Power was nursed round and should improve for this confidence booster. His best efforts have come right-handed with Sandown Park’s final meeting a possible target. Petit Mouchoir’s FSF (Form and Speed Rating) was not far off his best despite the bizarre tactics.

Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Coo Star Sivola travelled well and kicked on at the right time to hold off the strong challenge of Shantou Flyer in the closing stages. Backed throughout the week prior to the race, connections felt he was idling and deserves a crack at Conditions Races. Shantou Flyer finished second for the fourth time on the trot. Despite a rise in the handicap, his FSF suggest he may be able to defy his new rating. Vintage Clouds is a game and consistent chap. He seems to hit a flat spot whatever the distance of the race. He would not look out of place in the Grand National. Beware The Bear got his career back on track in fourth looking one for marathon trips in soft ground. Singlefarmpayment would have finished closer but for his jumping letting him down once again. O O Seven finished mi-division, which should set him up nicely for an assault on the Topham Trophy. Gold Present ran well for a long way. Post-race, it transpired that he broke a blood vessel.

Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

A combination of Buveur D’Air running 4/5lb below his best and Melon (Earplugs) improving 6lb led to a close finish. Both hurdled and travelled well off the fast pace set by Charli Parcs. With Mick Jazz running on into third, the duo duelled stride for stride until close home. The winner deserves credit as he found himself in front too soon at the third last. Melon was well-backed and found the race run to his needs. He has the size and scope to see him a leading candidate for the 2019 Arkle. Identity Thief ran well enough in fourth to suggest he can win if dropped in grade while Elgin was below the form shown at Wincanton recently. Faugheen found Charli Parcs taking him along too quickly. Not the force of old, he deserves a crack at further when ridden with some restraint.

Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Benie Des Deux ran on well to retain her unbeaten record for Mr Mullins. She will return to chasing over three-miles and may develop into a top-class performer. With her mares’ allowance, improvement of 7/8lb will see her amongst the top novices. Midnight Tour ran the race of her life to finish second. She may return to Cheltenham in April. Apples Jade ran a flat race proving 8/9lb below her best. (Later found to be in season) Following a lengthy break, Jer’s Girl ran a promising race running on in to fifth.

National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Rider’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Rathvinden and Ms Parfois fought out a tight finish. In receipt of her 7lb allowance, Ms Parfois tried her heart out but found her older rival just too strong. She looks a suitable type for the Welsh National and similar staying races. Rathvinden landed a gamble under a strong ride. Having been dismounted and given oxygen, one hopes he has a good break to recover from his exertions. No Comment may prove the one to note from the unplaced horses.

Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

Mister Whittaker and Rather Me fought out another close finish. The winner ran out a deserved winner having been short of room from three out. Both should do well next season, with the former likely to stay three-miles. Rather Be should go close if sent to Aintree, where he won last season. Rocklander ran well in third. He arrived off a break and looks one to consider at Aintree. Barney Dwan looks to need three-miles while Any Second Now and Ibis Du Rheu need better ground.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Two – Ladies Day

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The hype surrounding Samcro disappeared as he produced a performance of quality and substance. The second, third, and fourth ran to their best or produced higher FSFs. Travelling easily throughout Samcro, was handily placed on the outside of his field. Making ground down the hill, he went on two from home before comfortably holding the challenge of the runner-up (Lost his right front shoe during the race). Possessing the mid-race pace to position wherever his brilliant jockey decides, he looks the real deal. Given his owners predisposition to fences it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned next season. Black Op would have been closer but for a mistake at the last. He has the build of a chaser, will stay two and a half-miles over fences, while his dams side of breeding suggests three-miles may prove within his stamina range. Next Destination ran on strongly to take third. His size and scope suggests he will do well over fences. His dam stayed three-miles with his sire imparting enough stamina to see out three-miles. Scarpeta is to be commended in finishing fourth on his third start over hurdles. Duc Des Genievres is steadily improving, while Aye Aye Charlie should find a handicap stage.

RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Presenting Percy produced a top-class performance to follow-up last year’s Pertemps Final win. Jumping brilliantly throughout, he went passed Monalee at the second last and soon had the race in safekeeping. The Gold Cup is sure to be on his agenda next season though improvement of 9/10lb will be needed. Having raced a shade freely, Monalee looked be found out by stamina from the second last. Twenty-one furlongs may prove his optimum trip. Elegant Escape is an out-and-out galloper. Recovering from an early mistake, he ran on into third. He looks one for handicaps on galloping tracks. Trainer Colin Tizzard is likely to be rueing his decision not to go for the NH Chase. Ballyoptic is another for staying handicaps if finally over his jumping frailties. Black Corton spoilt his chance with low jumps.

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Bleu Berry showed little on his previous start. A Listed and Grade 2 winner in his novice season placed him on a competitive handicap mark. Held-up he was produced to lead a hundred yards from the winning post. Topofthegame ran a blinder off an 8lb higher mark than his last run. He may well have prevailed had he not missed the second last hurdle. If he takes to chasing, he should prove a high-class novice. Barra ran well to finish third despite losing her left fore shoe. William Henry ran well under his new handicap mark to finish fourth. He will stay three-miles while fourth home The Organist will appreciate a return to that trip. Red Indian can find a handicap on soft ground as can Burbank returned to better ground. Similar remark apples to Burbank’s stablechum Stowaway Magic. Given the amount of ground he made up running down the hill, racing wide, Mischievous Max should have his effort upgraded. A 9lb lower handicap mark in Ireland suggests he can find something similar. Right-handed track form reads 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2. Voix de Reve is one to keep an eye on.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

The departure of Douvan at the top of the hill, whilst disappointing, should not take away from an excellent renewal. Whist it was too far out to make an accurate assessment of Douvan’s chance, it is worth noting Mr Mullins brought back Penhill to win a Grade One after an interrupted preparation. Altior maintained his unbeaten record over fences. Taking time to find his stride, he jumped the last two fences as he built up momentum leaving Min and the others in his vapour trails. Given his much publicised problems this was a performance to savour. For the second year in a row he found himself outpaced coming down the hill before finding his stride up the hill. Interesting to hear Mr Henderson would like to try him over further. He will stay two and a half-miles with three-miles a possibility on breeding. Min looked at the top of his game pre-race. He settled off the pace, finding a high-class horse just too good on the run from the second last. God’s Own came back to form in third. If avoiding mistakes he can prove competitive at Aintree and Punchestown. Politologue appears happiest away from Cheltenham. Six his seven wins in the UK, have come on right-handed tracks. Despite words to the contrary earlier in the season, one suspects he will be stepped up in trip.

Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase)

The remarkable Tiger Cry won the National Hunt Challenge Cup last year, following his win in the 2014 Triumph Hurdle. Travelling with ease through the race, he kicked early for home and held on well up the hill (Post-race he was dismounted due to exhaustion). One would not put a big run in the Irish or English National beyond him. Urgent De Gregaine ran on gamely. He clearly enjoys his trips across the English Channel as his form over this course now reads 1, 3, 2. The Last Samuri ran well on his first start over these fences. He is likely to be campaigned in this discipline next season. Auvergnat ran well in fourth; he should be noted if reappearing at Punchestown.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Veneer of Charm returned to form having failed to build on a winning hurdling debut. Looking green and perhaps quirky, he wandered about markedly in front, eventually consenting to stay on well. If he irons out his quirks with experience, he should prove a useful dual-purpose performer. Style De Garde stayed on despite showing signs of racing freely as he did at Huntingdon. He has the build of a chaser and one imagines that will be his job next season. Nube Negra hurdled and travelled like a dream before finding the hill too much at this stage. If he reappears at Aintree, he would be one to consider. Padleyourowncanoe is consistent and holds up the form. Look My Way had his chance ended when badly hampered by the fall of Knight Destroyer, a fate that befell Mitchouka.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1)

Carefully Selected, handed an easy lead, kept galloping all the way only to be denied close home by the winner. Relegate, receiving her 7lb mares allowance, came from last place running down the hill to snatch the race in the final hundred yards, despite drifting to her left. Tornado Flyer ran well for one that had not seen a racecourse until January of this year. He looks the one to for the future. He completed a 1-2-3 for Mr Mullins. Acey Milan, far from disgraced in fourth, earned a break before going over hurdles. Blackbow finished fifth despite being just below his best. A good-looking horse, he has a future in staying novice hurdles.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Three – St Patrick’s Thursday

JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Shattered Love is good-sized mare that looked well in the paddock. Travelling well throughout, she joined the runner-up two from home and ran on well having clouted the last fence. Terrefort looked well and raced on the pace through the race. Tackled by the winner at the second last, he kept on well in the closing stages. At five-years, he will improve for a summer holiday. His is yet to race on anything other soft or heavy. Benatar ran a huge race to finish third. Pulling hard, he refused to settle. Deserves much credit rallying to finish third. Jumped well in the main and looks to have a serious engine to use when his head is in gear. Finian’s Oscar needs a break to forget a disappointing season. Invitation Only was never travelling with his usual fluency. However, he still had a shout when departing the fun as he slipped on landing at the fourth last.

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Delta Work came in for strong support and did enough to edge Glenloe out on the run-in. The latter’s last flight blunder cost him the race. Third and fourth, Connetable and Taj Badalandabad, arrived in good form and confirm the form to be solid. Who Dares Wins ran well (Raced a shade to freely) before weakening on the run-in. He is a credit to himself and connections. I hope he has a break and returns for the Chester Cup. A Great View would have preferred a stronger gallop. However, he was going well when diving at the second last, losing around four lengths. Recovering, he ran on strongly to finish an unlucky sixth. Wait For Me ran as though he failed to stay. On good ground, he can find a handicap over two and a half or two and three-quarter miles. Prime Venture ran well and should be noted.

Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

Balko Des Flos ran out a comfortable winner having travelled easily through the race. A mistake at the last failed to halt his momentum. He stays three-miles and may return to action at Punchestown. At seven-years, he may find further improvement. Un De Sceaux (Earplugs) looked well running his usual game race until finding the trip catching him out on heavy ground. Cloudy Dream finished third. He may find his turn coming at Aintree or Ayr, on better ground. Cue Card looked as though his Ascot run had emptied his reserves. Sub Lieutenant and Frodon ran below their best.

Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

On his first run since Punchestown 2017, Penhill returned to action with a remarkable win in a competitive renewal. He became the first horse to win the race following a win in the Albert Bartlett. Held up off the pace he showed good speed to lead approaching the final flight quickening away up the hill. Supasundae ran on gamely into second. He would have finished closer on better ground. Wholestone confirmed his liking for Cheltenham with an honourable third. He upheld the form of Penhill’s Albert Bartlett success. Colin’s Sister ran on well into fourth confirming he love of soft/heavy ground. Sam Spinner’s jockey may have been overwhelmed by the occasion. He seemed at pains not to go his normal pace. Despite keeping on well, he failed to use his main asset of stamina. Yanworth disappointed while The Worlds End once again found ground underhoof against him. Bacardys had been short of room before switching to the far side. Running on strongly, he overjumped and fell. Likely to have finished third, he is best at this time of the year.

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate

The Storyteller received a masterful ride from Mr Russell who hugged the inside rail until running down the hill. Challenging between the last two fences, he won decisively despite hanging towards the stand side rails. Splash Of Ginge ran with credit at a course that sees his best days. Kings Odyssey jumped well, enabling him to run a decent race in third. Ballyalton was not disgraced in fourth while Kings Socks ran well in fifth. Racing wide, he travelled easily until appearing to ground and trip finding him out. He can find something similar. Romain De Senam needs better ground while Pougne Bobbi found this grade too much for his abilities.

Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Laurina is a strong, lengthy mare that outclassed her rivals in the paddock and race. Racing in midfield, she cruised into the lead two out winning easily despite hitting the last hurdle. With her mares’ allowance, she can make an impact against the best two-mile novice hurdlers. Cap Du Soleil ran a game race to finish second. A Listed winner, he run suggests the form is as strong as it looks. Champayne Lady ran the best race of her career while Maria’s Benefit struggled when she hit the uphill run from the second last. Cut The Mustard looked as though she was there act as a spoiler to Maria’s Benefit chances.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase

Missed Approach, having his first run since undergoing a wind operation looked well. He made all and held on bravely despite hitting the last. Mall Dini looked all over the winner turning in He seemed to hang fire and looked out battled on the run-in. Entered in the Irish National, he is also in the Topham Trophy. Squouateur steadily warmed to his task as the race went on. He had every chance in the straight before finding the trip stretching his stamina. If he can learn to jump consistently he is young enough to improve further. Double Ross has slipped to a decent mark running well in fourth. Actinpieces was not disgraced upped in grade, while The Young Master showed a return to form running on late in the day. The latter is well-handicapped these days and needs a longer trip.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Day Four – Gold Cup Day

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

Farclas became the first maiden to win since 1980. The race came down to a rematch of Leopardstown‘s Dublin Festival form. On this occasion, with the emphasis firmly on stamina, Farclas reversed placing’s with Mr Adjudicator. Farclas will stay further than this while Mr Adjudicator may always be at his best on decent ground when the emphasis is on speed. For a once raced maiden hurdle winner, Sayo ran a mighty race. Jumping well, (Apart from the third last) he kept on well without raising the pace to challenge the first two home. A lengthy individual, he has further improvement in him. Apple’s Shakira, despite three wins, faced her first real test. She travelled strongly if a shade too freely. However, when push came to shove she was found wanting up the hill. A hood and decent ground will see her in a better light at Aintree – buy Aintree Grand National Meeting tickets. The front four were a long way clear of the remainder.

County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

The bookies found a result when Mohaayed held off Remiluc on the run-in. The winner is thought best on good ground. Given his trainer’s remarks post-race and his SP, it was clear he arrived unfancied. Remiluc, while a good yardstick, ran above his best. It should be noted he has finished 2, 1, 2 at Cheltenham this season. Whiskey Sour attracted support coming from off the pace to finish third for each-way backers. Chesterfield ran well and remains in good form (best FSFs came on flatter tracks) while Lagostovegas and Spiritofthegames both ran with credit. A Hare Breath ran a sound race on ground too soft while heavily backed Flying Tiger found the ground and occasion getting the better of him.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Yet another for the enemy as 33/1 chance Kilbricken Storm outstayed his rival up the hill. Tracking the leaders, he stayed on to lead before the final flight, going clear despite hanging left on the run-in. He looks a staying chaser in the making. Ok Corral ran a good race in second despite following the winners lead in hanging left on the run-in. If he remains sound, he should make an above average staying novice chaser. Santini was perhaps the one to take from the race. Inexperienced with plenty of filling out to come, he challenged from the second last. Trying his best he was unable to make an impression on the front two. He has the look of a 2019 RSA contender. Neither Ballyward nor Tower Bridge were disgraced with the latter likely to improve on better ground.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

Similar to a heavyweight boxing championship, we had the hard-hitting Native River against technically gifted Might Bite. From start to finish, the pair dominated the race with a series of accurate jumps, allied to raw galloping power. Repeatedly, Native River was asked to come up for mighty leaps, by his equally determined pilot. Meanwhile Might Bite ridden by quiet, but hugely effective, Nico De Boinville stalked the pair. Coming down the hill for the final time, the winner could still not be called. However, as the bout unfolded as they came into the final two rounds of fences, the sheer power of Native River saw him surge clear for a point’s decision. Embraces all round as the crowd cheered both combatants out of the arena. The eagerly awaited rematch, one hopes, will be run on better ground. Given that scenario, as the gladiators re-enter the lion’s den, opinions, and loyalties will be divided. A great end to a great week with the promise of more to come. Anibale Fly stayed on to take third place. Considering this came off the back of a heavy fall at Leopardstown he deserves the utmost credit. When he is on song, he is more than useful. At present Grade One success may prove a rung too high to climb. Road To Respect ran well until tiring and making mistakes at the final two fences. A combination of ground and trip appeared to find him out. Djakadam finished fifth confirming the belief he does not see this trip out. Definitly Red was never going and is a hard horse to read. He may be at his best in smaller fields. All his chase wins and places have come in fields of ten or less runners. Tea For Two finished well beaten but at least completed the race. He should not be overlooked if turning up at Aintree. Edwulf made headway until stopping after the fourth last. Killultagh Vic was never happy and his history of falls may have cost him chance at this level. Our Duke neither travelled or jumped through the race. One wonders if he still has a physical issue. Total Recall was under pressure but keeping on when falling heavily at the third-last. Progressive this season, this was not an ideal National preparation.

Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase

An exciting finish with Pacha Du Polder coming from well of the pace to snatch the race on the run-in despite his riders shoulder dislocating at the second last. Top Wood winner of two Points this season, ran a brave race leading most of the way and keeping on well up the hill. Barel Of Laughs finished third, as last year, on ground he disliked. Cousin Pete is inexperienced under rules. That upgrades his dead-heat for third. Caid Du Berlais ran well but failed to stay while Grand Vision ran with credit for much to the race. Balnaslow finally stayed on into seventh having looked likely to finish way behind at one stage. He ran well at Aintree last year and should come on for the run. Burning Ambition travelled well but appeared not to stay from the second last. A seven-year-old, he was suffering from mild heat exhaustion post-race. If all is well with him, he should be capable of a good run at Aintree. On The Fringe may be getting on in years but was far from disgraced.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

Grade 1 Bumper and Grade Three hurdle winner Blow By Blow was well-handicapped on his best form. Handed a few lengths at the start, he dominated the race from start to finish. Able to get a breather coming down the hill, he kicked for home turning in and never looked likely to relinquish his lead. Discorama came from well of the pace and deserves credit for running on into the runner-up spot. A 2lb rise in the handicap may not stop an early win. Early Doors, Sire Du Berlais (Perhaps the best of the three), and Diese Des Bieffes, all ran well, confirming the form of novices in this event. Lough Derg Spirit ran well once again considering he need better ground. When that arrives, he will land a decent handicap. Dream Berry caught the eye. Held-up well off the pace he ran on into seventh having never been put into the race. He ran well at Aintree and Punchestown last season.

Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Finally rewarding his long-suffering supporters, Le Prezien jumped well. Despite being hampered three out, he came through to win going away. One could not be sure he would repeat this despite the convincing manner of the win. The Kerry Lee pair of Gino Trail and Top Gamble ran their hearts out to finish second and third. The trainer and her team should be congratulated on keeping their old warriors in good shape. Theinval finished fourth on ground he would have disliked. Aintree (Second in the Red Rum last year off a 3lb higher mark) will be on his agenda again. Doitforthevillage, returned to chasing, was far from disgraced making late progress having been hampered more than once. Dolos ran a sound race for a novice while last year’s winner, Rock The World bled from the nose.

RACING POST TOPSPEED FIGURES

WINNER DISTANCE RP TOPSPEED TIME BASED GOING OFFICIAL GOING
Native River 3m 2½f 167 Heavy Soft
Footpad 2m 158 Soft Heavy
Balko Des Flos 2m5f 156 Heavy Soft
Altior 2m 152 Soft Soft
Buveur D’Air 2m½f 145 Soft Heavy
Summerville Boy 2m½f 142 Soft Heavy
Shattered Love 2m4f 138 Heavy Soft
Samcro 2m5f 133 Soft Soft
The Storyteller 2m5f 128 Heavy Soft
Laurina 2m1f 126 Heavy Soft
Kilbricken Storm 3m 125 Heavy Soft
Delta Work 3m 123 Heavy Soft
Veneer Of Charm 2m½f 121 Soft Soft
Farclas 2m1f 119 Heavy Soft
Pacha Du Polder 3m 2½f 118 Heavy Soft
Bleu Berry 2m5f 116 Soft Soft
Mohaayed 2m1f 111 Heavy Soft
Le Prezien 2m½f 106 Heavy Soft
Presenting Percy 3m½f 101 Soft Soft
Relegate 2m½f 98 Soft Soft
Blow By Blow 2m4½f 94 Heavy Soft
Penhill 3m 93 Heavy Soft
Missed Approach 3m2f 91 Heavy Soft
Tiger Roll 3m 6f 89 Soft Soft
Rathvinden 4m 68 Soft Soft
Benie Des Dieux 2m4f 62 Soft Heavy
Coo Star Sivola 3m1f 53 Soft Heavy

 

POST CHELTENHAM RATINGS

NOVICE CHASERS TIMEFORM FSFS NOVICE HURDLERS TIMEFORM FSFS
FOOTPAD 174 168 SAMCRO 159 152
PRESENTING PERCY 163 156 SUMMERVILLE BOY 156 153
PETIT MOUCHOIR 159 159 BLACK OP 152 148
SAINT CALVADOS 157 154 KALASHNIKOV 152 150
BRAIN POWER 157 157 NEXT DESTINATION 151 145
SCEAU ROYAL 157 155 KILBRICKEN STORM 151 145
MONALEE 156 149 CRACKING SMART 150 140
CYRNAME 155 151 LAURINA 150 145
THE STORYTELLER 155 150 ON THE BLIND SIDE 150 145
INVITATION ONLY 154 143 IF THE CAP FITS 149 138
SHATTERED LOVE 154 151 BLOW BY BLOW 149 141
AL BOUM PHOTO 154 146 MENGLI KHAN 149 148
DEATH DUTY 154 148 OK CORRAL 148 142
BLACK CORTON 153 148 DUC DES GENIEVRES 148 142
DOUNIKOS 153 142 PALOMA BLUE 148 146
RATHER BE 152 142 SANTINI 147 143
RATHVINDEN 152 146 VINNDICATION 146 142
TERREFORT 152 150 SCARPETA 146 142
BENATAR 151 147 BALLYWARD 145 139
MONBEG NOTORIOUS 151 147 GLOBAL CITIZEN 145 140

 

TOP CHASERS TIMEFORM FSFS TOP HURDLERS TIMEFORM FSFS
ALTIOR 179 173 BUVEUR D’AIR 168 164
DOUVAN 176 171 MELON 167 161
FOOTPAD 174 168 PENHILL 164 157
NATIVE RIVER 172 173 MY TENT OR YOURS 163 157
MIGHT BITE 171 170 SUPASUNDAE 163 157
MIN 169 166 THE NEW ONE 163 160
ROAD TO RESPECT 169 165 MICK JAZZ 162 155
SIZING JOHN 169 167 SAM SPINNER 162 154
WAITING PATIENTLY 168 167 FAUGHEEN 161 156
GREAT FIELD 168 164 L’AMI SERGE 161 154
FOX NORTON 168 165 BACARDYS 159 151
BALKO DES FLOS 167 167 SAMCRO 159 152
TOP NOTCH 167 161 AGRAPART 159 155
OUR DUKE 167 159 WHOLESTONE 159 153
BRISTOL DE MAI 166 162    
UN DE SCEAUX 166 166    
KILLULTAGH VIC 166 154    
CUE CARD 165 164    
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 165 160    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BUMPERS TIMEFORM FSF BUMPERS TIMEFORM FSF
CAREFULLY SELECTED 124 129 BREWIN’UPASTORM 112 115
TORNADO FLYER 122 125 MINELLA ENCORE 112 121
BLACKBOW 121 124 DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO 111 114
RHINESTONE 119 123 GOOD BOY BOBBY 111 115
ACEY MILAN 118 121 MERCY MERCY 110 118
RELEGATE 117 121 THE BIG BITE 110 114
HOLLOWGRAPHIC 115 117 SEDDON 109 112
FELIX DESJY 113 121 SAM’S ADVENTURE 109 119
BRACE YOURSELF 113 114 BULLIONAIRE 108 112
RAPID ESCAPE 113 114    

 

JUVENILE HURDLERS TIMEFORM FSFS JUVENILE HURDLERS TIMEFORM FSFS
FARCLAS 155 143 SALDIER 132 122
MR ADJUDICATOR 153 142 ACT OF VALOUR 132 126
SAYO 148 137 NUBE NEGRA 131 132
WE HAVE A DREAM 145 137 SUSSEX RANGER 131 129
ESPOIR D’ALLEN 142 132 ROCK DE BAUNE 130 133
REDICEAN 141 134 GUMBALL 130 127
APPLE’S SHAKIRA 140 136 VENEER OF CHARM 130 130
STORMY IRELAND 136 127 SAGLAWY 129 122
MITCHOUKA 134 129 CASA TALL 129 123
STYLE DE GARDE 134 135 MALAYA 129 124

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day 2018

by Leave a Comment

It’s the big day at Cheltenham Festival 2018 and I hope you enjoy my preview and tips for Gold Cup Day below. A nice 12/1 winner yesterday so let’s hope for more of the same today.

1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo):

Stormy Ireland didn’t beat much on debut at Fairyhouse but when she did it she was so impressive one could only heave been left with the impression that she was a graded horse who could go to the very top and what’s more she has a huge amount of form on testing ground. Apple’s Shakira will love the surface and has been an impressive winner of her three starts over course and distance, always engaging overdrive up the home straight in testing ground. The form of her three wins has been franked via the Fred Winter and there’s plenty to like about her chances although she is short. Mr Adjudicator and Farclas were impressive when finishing 1-2 in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown and if they handle softer conditions then they will take a huge amount of beating. Farclas’s form on testing surfaces isn’t as strong as the favourites but he has had just the two runs and this course ought to suit him a lot more than Leopardstown did. He might be an each/way bet still. Sussex Ranger now doesn’t have to deal with We Have A Dream and does handle this ground so need sot be considered whilst Redician’s big question is if he transfers his form from the flat surface of Kempton to this most testing course; should he do so, he’s going to go well.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Stormy Ireland (11/2 general), 1 pt each/way Farclas (15/2 general)

2.10 – (New) Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+):

It’s not original but Bleu Et Rouge was second only to Kalashnikov in the Betfair on awful ground and the handicapper was probably right to give him 8lbs given how well Amy Murphy’s charge ran on Tuesday. Fourth in a major Ascot handicap before that, he ought to enjoy this test and can go well. Whiskey Sour as had much less experience but the form of his fourth in the Deloitte is now looking much stronger than it initially did and it should be remembered that he won two major handicap at Galway before going back jumping. 141 might underestimate him here if he takes to the tacky surface and he makes the second most appeal out of the Mullins battalion. The third best might be another Mullins charge in the shape of Lagostovegas, whom was a good third to a smart mare in Forge Meadow on her first race after a break in February. Before that she had finished second in a Listed contest on the flat and then before that she had been third in a Cesarewitch – form which is tacking up nicely.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Bleu Et Rouge (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Lagostovegas (20/1 general)

2.50 –  (New) Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (Class 1):

Favourites don’t have the best record in this but the way Santini managed to find overdrive to deny Black Op was extremely impressive in a Grade 2 on trials day and before that he’s proven too good for Chef Des Obeaux who has franked that form by winning a Hayydock Grade and done so in fine fashion. This ground isn’t a problem for him and he gives all the appearance of being a horse who really ought to thrive the further he goes. Chris’s Dream was deeply impressive when taking the Surehaul novice hurdle and needs serious respect and the same to go to Enniscoffey Oscar who just got up in the River Don.

Dortmund Park was a disappointment in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle when Tower Bridge won but he shaped as if something was amiss the and it’s no surprise to hear that he’s had a wind operation soon afterwards. If he is back to the form that he showed when he put a decent field to the sword at Thurles, then he could be a major player here and that potential gives him the second vote ahead of Calett Mad and Ballyward.

The biggest threat is Poetic Rhythm, who took a slog of a Challow Hurdle at Newbury from Mulachy’s Hill when he did well to reel in Warren Geartrex’s charge after he got first run. His pedigree gives plenty of encouragement for staying three miles, and the visual evidence suggests that even more.

Advice: 2 pts win Santini (4/1 general), 1 pt each/way Dortmund Park (16/1 general)

3.30 – Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+): Might Bite is one of two ante post charges and extremely talented, but this new trip on testing ground is much more of a worry than any other factor in the race and he doesn’t make appeal on the day with that in mind. It’s great news for Our Duke, our other ante-post selection, and the form of his Red Mills win has been boosted out of the park by Presenting Percy in the RSA, but Jessica Harrington’s chaser has yet to put in one round of jumping that would be sufficient to win a Gold Cup and he has to be avoided. Native River, an impressive winner of the Denman Chase and this last year, has obviously claims along with Killtuagh Vic (if he stays upright), but the cards have fallen right for Definitely Red. A deeply impressive winner of the Many Clouds Chase, he made Americain look second rate in the Cotswold Chase on trials day and has been excelling himself on soft and heavy ground for a long time before this season. Rated 167, he must be bang there if repeating that run and the surface and likely strong pace will be music to the ears of Danny Cook and Brian Ellison. Total Recall is respected although he must improve whilst Edwulf’s amazing win in the Irish Gold Cup gives him solid form claims.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Definitely Red (12/1 general)

Already Advised for Members on 27 October: 1 pt each/way Our Duke (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Might Bite (8/1 general) 

4.10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase:

Burning Ambition is skinny in such a huge field bit his form, including a good second to Gilgamboa, is first class and he will take the beating with a clear round of jumping. Pacha Du Polder was a disappointment upon his return but he won this race last year with a fine ride from Bryony Frost and along with Wonderful Charm, should go very well in a bid to give Paul Nicholls another winner. Wonderful Charm might have won last year had he gotten going even a stride earlier

Foxrock’s form is first class but his travel issues are very off-putting and that leads one to think differently in terms of an each/way benefit. On The Fringe’s form figures in this contest read 43114 but he’s now 13 and vulnerable to younger legs here – Caid Du Berlais has impressed for Rose Loxton since moving from Paul Nicholls and deserves a lot of respect.

Advice: 1 pt win Burning Ambition (7/2 general), 1 pt each/way Wonderful Charm (7/1 general)

4.50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145):

Willie Mullins has a fine record in this and Deal D’Estruval would have been a contender in any of the handicaps this week following his second in the Coral Hurdle. He bumped into an even more well handicapped horse in the shape of Off You Go there but the form has been boosted by the third Grand Partner winning off 130 in a useful handicap hurdle afterwards. The form of Diese Des Bieffes’s fifth in the Lanzarote has been sensationally franked since and on that basis he is impossible to leave out of the portfolio. From that race, winner William Henry was a fine fourth in the Coral Cup, Spiritofthegames was third in the Betfair Hurdle behind Sky Bet Supreme runner-up Kalashnikov, third Red Indian was runner up at Towcester and then sixth in the Coral Cup, fourth Topofthegame won a Grade 3 handicap at Sandown and was third in the Coral Cup, the seventh Le Patriote won at Ascot and the eighth Dentley de Mee was second in the EBF Final at Sandown on Saturday.

Flawless Escape ran into the handicap snip Total Recall over hurdles in the William Fry handicap hurdle at Leopardstown and is another who must go close although Carter McKay’s third in the Moscow Flyer and the staying novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown makes him look extremely well treated off 138 and this trip and ground ought to really suit.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Deal D’Estruval (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Diese Des Bieffes (8/1 general)

5.30 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus):

Take a flyer on the veteran Dresden, who has won impressively on soft/heavy the last twice at Catterick and Wetherby. A staying on sixth last year, he is 3lbs lower now despite being in better form and he’s 2/1 over 2 miles this season. He might not be as much of a plot job as many others in this race but this big field and strong pace will really suit him and he can outrun his price. Doitforthevillage has had two good runs over hurdles as a prep for this and he’s only 4lbs higher than his last chase start – a very taking win here in November. The form of that hasn’t worked out so well but he displayed all the attributes he’ll need here and appeals as being too big in a minefield.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Dresden (33/1 general), 1 pt each/way Doitforthevillage (40/1 general)

Good luck today and for individual Gold Cup Day race previews and tips please check out our Cheltenham Festival 2018 Race Previews and Tips.

JCB Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival 2018 – preview and tips

by Leave a Comment

The four year old hurdle championship has been kind in recent years to one trainer, Nicky Henderson. He has saddled three recent winners in Zaynar, Soldatino and Peace and Co, and this year holds a couple of aces in the pack in the form of We Have A Dream and ante post favourite Apples Shakira.

The French bred mare Apples Shakira, full sister to multiple Grade One winner Apples Jade, made her UK debut at the Cheltenham Open meeting with a decisive 17 length victory over previous winner Gumball. Another victory followed in December and again on Trials Day in January. I was at Cheltenham for the race on trials day and thought the mare may have been in trouble turning for home as Look My Way seemed to be unrelenting in his front running effort, but the way Apples Shakira picked up and won going away by 8 lengths, was very impressive in my opinion.

Last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil, also owned by JP McManus followed almost the same route on his way to festival glory and it would not be a surprise to see this talented mare win this year. The slight concern would be the ground in March. All of her wins have come on soft and it is hard to predict how she will act on what is sure to be better ground. It may well play to her strengths and bring out improvement. A big plus will be the larger sized field, fast run race and the option to find cover to allow her to settle and travel well through her race.

Owners Isaac Suede and Simon Munir who sent out Soldatino in 2010, and Peace and Co in 2015 to festival glory in the triumph hurdle will be confident of another bold showing in this year’s race in the shape of the impressive We Have A Dream. The French import snapped up by the Suede and Munir racing manager and bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley, also made his UK debut in November at Warwick, beating Etamine Du Cochet by 10 lengths. Next up was a fine display in a Grade two win at Doncaster, which was then followed up by a gusty display to see off the very useful Sussex Ranger in the Grade One Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow.

A characteristic I like of any potential Cheltenham Festival horse is the ability to battle and be brave when winning a race earlier in the season. These types of animal make great festival tips. This happened in the last preparation race at Musselburgh in February. Beating Act of Valour by 4 and a half lengths would be satisfying, but that does not describe how at one point in the race We Have A Dream had to fight and dig in to get to the front, which he did and stayed on strongly to win going away. I am impressed by this horse and we have the evidence to believe he goes well on any ground.

The Irish juveniles this year look to be very smart. The key trial races include the Grade Three Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle and the Grade Two Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle. Both of these races were won by the Gavin Cromwell trained Espoir D’Allen. His form was there to be seen and was enough to send him off odds-on favourite for the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Leopardstown Dublin Racing Festival. He could only manage a distant fourth place behind eventual winner Mr Adjudicator, who beat Farclas, a horse he had beat earlier in the season.

This was not the true running for me of Espoir D’Allen. He was very head strong and pulled his way to the front and did not settle in to the race, and by the time he came in to the home turn he had run his race. I would not give up hope on him yet. In 2016 we saw a similar thing happen to Ivanovich Gorbatov, who had the early season form before disappointing in his prep run for Cheltenham, before returning to winning ways in the Triumph Hurdle. Farclas is a horse improving with every run and could be another to keep on side.

The horse that interests me the most is the UK Based Redicean, trained by Alan King. The ex-flat horse has put in two awesome displays this season in his perfect records over hurdles. The first was at the Christmas festival at Kempton where he beat Haulani by 10 lengths. The second win was again at Kempton and again a 10 length victory was stamped with a classy performance. I love the way Redicean travels through his races and seems to have a very big engine. The only thing that works against him is his tendency to throw in the odd bad jump. This is something that can be worked upon in schooling and with more racing experience. I will take a chance that this lads jumping will stand the test in March, as I have no doubt that he has the potential to be a Triumph Hurdle Winner.

Race Verdict:

The value has been sucked out of Apples Shakira’s price 3/1, and she is worth taking on now at this stage. Those who are on at bigger prices ante post will be happy enough. We Have A Dream 8/1, is the one to serve it up to the mare and will be in the frame.

The each way value of the race is Espoir D’Allen at 16/1. He will be the second string horse for JP McManus and Mark Walsh looks set to ride, which will be a big plus. I feel with a good run race he will settle better than last time and could travel in to the race well and be in the shakeup.

My win bet is Redicean. I am taking a chance with his jumping and that it will stand the test at Cheltenham. I think this horse has untapped potential and lots of ability. At 10/1 he is a very big price and a smart bet in my opinion.

Tips:

Redicean – 2.5 Pts win @ 10/1
Espoir D’Allen – 1 Pt e/w @ 16/1

The Best Apps for The Cheltenham Festival

by Leave a Comment

The Cheltenham Festival is now underway and racing fans from around the world not just the UK and Ireland will have their eyes glued to the “Greatest Show on Turf.” Watching such an event has long gone past the stage where audiences just switched on the television or made their way to the racecourse. With the rapid advancements made with smartphones and apps the latter now enable enthusiasts to get even closer to the action, but which are the best to download for the festival right now?

Racing Post

The Racing Post app is one of the staple horse racing applications on the market. It’s loved by all horse racing enthusiasts due to its many features. Contained within the app is knowledge from over 200 horse racing experts, race cards, fast results, free bets, the latest horse racing news and live streaming.

If you’re planning to have a flutter on the action at Cheltenham this is the go to app for the inside track that should see people come out as winners rather than losers. It’s loaded with everything you could ever need to enjoy the action.

Unibet

If you’ve got the Racing Post app you will have a wealth of information to play with, so you’ll ideally need a bookmaker in order to make it work for you. Look no further than the popular Unibet app which is perfect for placing bets on the action at Cheltenham.

The app itself looks great and it is very easy to navigate which is ideal for people either at home, at work or even at the festival itself who are wanting to place bets with just a few presses of the screen. They also have some great offers on right now too!

Cheltenham Racecourse

With the action taking place at Cheltenham Racecourse what could be more ideal than an actual Cheltenham Racecourse app? It’s the perfect app for horse racing enthusiasts whether they are visiting the venue for the festival or watching from elsewhere.

The app is superb in keeping people updated on the latest goings on at the track be it horse racing or other events and for those who are visiting it’s the ideal app to have to not only find the course but to navigate around it too. It also keeps everyone up to date on the latest race cards and results too.

Racing UK

Racing UK has quickly established itself as one of the biggest names in horse racing and their app is a superb addition to anyone’s smartphone or tablet. Racing UK became known for broadcasting live horseracing, but their app provides a lot more than just live streaming from 37 of the UK’s best racecourses which includes Cheltenham.

It’s the ideal hub for all horse racing enthusiasts who want to check out the latest Timeform Premium ratings, race cards and form. There’s also plenty of tips available for punters to take advantage of which come from some of the biggest and best names in the industry.

Top 3 favorites for the Cheltenham Gold Cup

by Leave a Comment

All the punters eyes are looking towards Cheltenham Festival 2018 which brings all the best horses from around the UK and Ireland together for top sport and with it excitement, passion and drama. Here are the three top favourites for the week’s big race, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Sizing John (NON-RUNNER)

Sizing John is one of the stronger contestants in this year’s Gold Cup; at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, he was the Gold Cup winner. He is a Jessica Harrington trained thoroughbred racehorse. Jonathan Burke was the rider in most of the races, while more recently, the jockey Robbie Power is the rider of Sizing John.

Before winning the Gold Cup, he had already won the Future Champions Novices Hurdle in 2014 and Craddockstown Novice Chase in 2015. The year of 2017 was his best year by far. He won the Kinloch Brae Chase, Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase in that single year before winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup that year as well.

However, his performance this season have not been up to the par. He lost at Leopardstown by a staggering 32 lengths which is not the sort of performance one would hope to see from a horse trying to retain his crown.

Might Bite:

Although not pleasing everyone by his manner of victory, Might Bite has finished where it matters this season; in front. He’s now won his last 5 races and remains unbeaten since Feb 2017. His trainer is none other than the legendary trainer Nicky Henderson who already has won the Gold Cup twice. He won the big race in 2011 with Long Run and then again in 2013 with Bobs Worth. According to his handler, Might Bite is in his best of form and clearly a top favorite for the Gold Cup.

Most recently, Might Bite showed us his talents at the King George VI Chase over Christmas. A year previously, he had suffered a fall in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase but Nicky Henderson got his compensation Boxing Day win this time with Might Bite.

Nicky Henderson decided to not run him for the February Denman Chase and he will now head directly to Cheltenham to compete in the Gold Cup with Sizing John and Native River and other top National Hunt horses.

What happened during the last year’s RSA Chase speaks volumes about the calibre of Might Bite. In that race, he had lost his lead during the final part of the race when he veered wildly to the right. But extraordinarily, he managed to claw back to victory by finishing first in the final few strides.

If you are interested in betting, then be a smart punter by making freebets your one stop shop. All the odds, tips and predictions related to Cheltenham betting will be found here. Plus you can enjoy all the free bets from leading bookmakers of the world including Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill and Betfred.

See what the odds of winning or losing are for your favorite horses. Whether it is the RSA Chase, Supreme Novices Hurdle Chase or Stayers Hurdle, the odds could be found for all these races on Champion Day, Ladies Day, St. Patrick’s Day and Gold Cup day.

Check all the offers of the leading bookmakers to see what suits you the best. If you choose 888sport and bet £10 on the first race, then you can get £5 in free bets for any other race on the cards. You can also select Betfair for their Non Runner No Bet offer on all Cheltenham Championship Races. Coral will give you the Best Odds Guaranteed offer. While the same offer is given by William Hill, Paddy Power and Betway as well.

Native River:

It was really after the Denman Chase at Newbury that punters started to consider Native River for the coming Gold Cup more seriously as he has become somewhat of a forgotten horse having not been seen since last season. Although some would have had their eyes on him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018, ever since he finished third in last year’s renewal, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths.

He had a terrific last season having won the Ladbrokes Trophy, Welsh Grand National and the Denman Chase for trainer Colin Tizzard, whose stable is now firing after a poor January. Native River has taken a while to come to himself following last year’s Cheltenham Festival but now that he has proved himself again by winning the Denman Chase he is also one of the top favorites for the Gold Cup.

 

 

Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham Festival 2018 – preview and tips

by Leave a Comment

Before we get stuck into my Ryanair Chase preview, JP has asked me to remind you of our Cheltenham Preview on Facebook at 7.30pm on Monday that you can access more previews and a whole raft of other useful stuff with info on tickets, accommodation, night life, race schedule and more here: Cheltenham Festival 2018

The Ryanair Chase, one of the newest additions to the Festival calendar, has been much maligned during its time in the Thursday slot, with the chief argument against it being that talent was drained from the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, weakening two Championship races as a whole. However in the 12 renewals of the race so far, we’ve seen fine festival performances from stalwarts such as Imperial Commander (a future Gold Cup winner), festival favourite Alberta’s Run, Cue Card and Vautour, all before last season’s incredible performance from Un De Sceaux.

Un De Sceaux is the right place to start, given just how dominant he was from start to finish last year in what was arguably a career best performance, having set out from the front and getting all his rivals under the pump from a good distance before two mega leaps sealed victory, as you can see below.

He has since won twice this season, taking the Hilly Way apart before landing the Clarence House with ease when second favourite Brain Power fell. In his old age, he is a more uncomplicated horse who ought to take the beating, although this could be a stronger renewal than last year.

Waiting Patiently, the rapidly progressive northern raider now trained by Ruth Jefferson, made it five without defeat over fences in fine style at Kempton in a Listed contest where the decent yardsticks Art Maresque and God’s Own were swatted aside with a fine turn of speed between the last two fences.

As a novice, he had beaten improved Politologue at Haydock when getting 3lbs – form that has just looked better and better since – and there is a feeling that he is one of the most unexposed of the senior chasers in the field, with the promise of more to come and speed to burn.

Cue Card is a former winner of this race, although rising 12 – however he was going very well when falling in the Gold Cup last year and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to show something like his best in the Ascot Chase. The return of Paddy Brennnan to the saddle is an interesting late change, with the two having shared their best moments together, but he does have something to prove against horses at their peak now.

Douvan didn’t make the Red Mills Chase, which suggests a comeback for the festival is unlikely in this, and Min looks sure to go to the Champion Chase. Yorkhill hasn’t shown much in either of his two runs this season but wind the clock back and he’d been beautifully ridden by Ruby Walsh to take the JLT from Top Notch – some of the best form in this race – at the last festival and he’d have beaten the subsequent Grade 1 winner had he gone left handed at Fairyhouse afterwards.

The worry is that he wasn’t beaten by the trip in the Dublin Chase, but we know this is his ideal target and it’ll surely be where he goes – with or without Ruby Walsh.

Gigginstown are yet to win this despite a lot of trying and in Balko Des Flos they have an uber solid contender. He’s been saved for a tilt at the Festival since finishing second to Road To Respect, a career best effort, in the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown. He might need to find more here – especially given the speed that many at the top of the market have shown – but he promises to be a solid each/way proposition and perhaps front running tactics might be employed.

Frodon’s latest win on trials day means he has to go for Graded chases now and the Ascot Chase ought to tell us whether he can hack it in this company – the percentage call is to go against him given that he was ten lengths behind Top Notch when they last met.

Cloudy Dream, second in the Arkle last year, is of more interest – he’s been going over 3 miles without much success and a decent surface and this trip might bring out the best in him.

NOTE: This post has been updated to account for the withdrawals of Fox Norton and also Top Notch. The amendment took place on the 7 March 2018.

Advice:

1 pt each/way Balko Des Flos (6/1 general)

 

 

Pertemps Network Final At Cheltenham Festival 2018 – Ante-post Tip

by Leave a Comment

The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival 2018

An ever intriguing renewal of the Pertemps and one in which my views have changed considerably as the likely field becomes more clear. Gordon Elliot’s Glenloe has clearly been laid out for this race and has a favourites chance for sure as some of his form has worked out extremely well. In particular his Naas run in November when sandwiched between Oscar Knight and Diamond Cauchois looks solid as they have been put up a combined 34lbs since. He hasn’t been lost in the market however as he is currently favourite for the race. A slight concern for me with him would be his strike rate. When all is said and done he has one win from 8 starts over hurdles and whilst he could be a few pounds well in, his only success over hurdles came in a maiden hurdle at Navan where he won by a neck. He travels very well through his races but doesn’t seem to find a great deal for pressure, albeit some of that in his most recent runs may have been as a result of his jockeys lack of desire to run to his very best form with this race in mind. His breeding is absolutely perfect for this race and you have to respect his form and his connections. He looks certain to run a solid race.

Preference however at the prices is for Denis Cullen’s A Great View.  He ran a massive race at Leopardstown over Christmas when narrowly beaten by Mine Now. He came from the clouds to get involved and the manner of that performance suggested that a very strongly run race at Cheltenham will be right up his street. His pedigree is full of stamina and everything he has done on the racecourse supports the fact that he stays very well. He finished fifth last time out under Barry Geraghty when given too much to do and Barry was very easy on him during the final half mile, making very little attempt to close on the breakaway leaders. It looked a pretty cynical ride to me and having not had a hard race he has had the ideal preparation to leave everything behind at Prestbury Park. This race looks ideally suited to him and a sounder surface may also bring about further improvement. With a nice weight he looks a serious contender, particularly given he had Glenloe over 7 lengths behind him at Leopardstown (now 5lbs worse off with him) and he saw out that race far better. If he can stay in touch turning for home I can see him coming with a storming run up the Cheltenham hill.

Recommended Bet:

2pts E/W – A GREAT VIEW @ 25/1 (Betfair)

Ladies Day at Cheltenham Festival 2018

by Leave a Comment

It’s Ladies Day at Cheltenham Festival 2018 and I’m looking forward to meeting up with JP and sharing a few pints of Guinness. Let’s hope we can celebrate a few winners together. Enjoy Day 2!

1.30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham):

Nothing is a certainty at Cheltenham but Samcro hasn’t put a single foot wrong and it will take a fine performance to beat him. The manner with which Gordon Elliott’s star dismissed Duc Des Genievres in the Deloitte was astonishing and it also gave his form real substance over hurdles too for the first time, something underlined by the run of Paloma Blue (fourth there) in the Supreme yesterday. With a fine ante post position on Next Destination to boot, we can have an each/way shot with Duc Des Genievres, who has found only Next Destination and Samcro too good in his two starts. He was pitched into the deep end of Grade 1 company on both occasions which gives an extremely positive vibe about him, and the ground has turned right for him too.

Advice: 3 pts win Samcro (8/11 general), 1 pt each/way Duc Des Genievres (12/1 general)

Already Advised for Members: 1 pt each/way Next Destination, 2018 Ballymore Novices Hurdle (8/1 Boylesports)

2.10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+):

This is very well contested and the field are hard to split. On the basis of yesterday’s National Hunt Chase, not much separates the best of the British and Irish novice chasers and Black Corton’s trashing of Ms Parfois, giving hr a Grade 1 penalty, looks rock solid now and whilst he has been on the go since the summer, he shows no sign of abating and a bold bid ought to be expected.

Monalee’s win in the Flogas Novice Chase over Al Boum Photo and Dounikos is rock solid form and all three ought to go well again with the step up in trip perhaps ideal for Al Boum Photo and Dounikos against Monalee, who appeared to have real zest at that trip.
Presenting Percy’s second to Our Duke, when he made him pull out all the stops, is the best form in the race and there’s no reason for him not to go close.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Black Corton (15/2 general)

2.50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3):

William Henry’s Lanzarote win has worked out brilliantly and he might actually have been leniently treated with just a 6lbs rise for it. Spiritofthegames was third in the Betfair Hurdle behind Sky Bet Supreme runner-up Kalashnikov, third Red Indian finishing runner up at Towcester, fourth Topofthegame winning at Sandown (also runs here, is on worse terms but can go very well) and the seventh Le Patriote winning at Ascot and the eighth Dentley de Mee taking second in the EBF Final at Sandown on Saturday. The ground ought to be fine too.

Advice: 1 pt each/way William Henry (8/1 general)

3.30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+):

This ought to be a thrilling spectacle here and it’s one to savour mainly with a good position. The bet of the top three is Min, who was so impressive in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown which looked a fantastic preparation for this given the pace that Special Tiara showed that day. There have been no holdsup with his preparation, whilst Altior was lame on Monday and has already got the bounce factor to cope with, whilst Douvan has been off since sustaining a pelvic injury in this last year and needs great leap of faith to be backed.

Advice: 2 pts win Min (7/2 general)

4.10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase):

If the Last Samurai takes to these obstacles then he’s got to have a major chance but Cause Of Causes has win at the Festival for the last three seasons and knows this course like the back of his hands so there’s no great appeal to take him on with Tiger Roll or Auvergnat.

Advice: 2 pts win Cause Of Causes (3/1 general)

4.50 – Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3):

Mitchouka hasn’t put a foot wrong in all her starts this season and has some of the very best form courtesy of her run ins with Espoir D’Allen. A couple of wins should have done her confidence the world of good before this too and a big run is hoped for. Paul Nicholls has done well in this so his Act Of Valour is second choice after a return to form at Musselburgh. He fought well to beat Look My Way on debut at Newcastle and that form has not worked out badly at all.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mitchouka (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Act Of Valour (10/1 general)

Good luck today and for St Patrick’s Day and Gold Cup Day previews and tips check out our Cheltenham Festival 2018 Race Previews and Tips.

Cheltenham Champion Day Preview and Tips

by Leave a Comment

It’s the week we’ve been waiting for. 6 months or more of waiting are over and hopefully you all have a fine week – most importantly let the horses and riders come back safe. This preview and all others are being written with a heavy (pun intended!) focus on the ground. Cheltenham Festival 2018 going is the most testing in 33 years.

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+):

Getabird’s defeat of Mengli Khan in the Moscow Flyer was a deeply impressive performance and the deluge of rain has not hurt his chances at all, so he ought to go very close although he’s only 15/8 and there are better ways to start the week from a value perspective for all he is the likeliest winner. In any case, Kalshnikov’s win in an extremely well contested Betfair Hurdle was as impressive a performance from a novice as we’ve seen all season and he still looks to be in comparison with the favourite. 141 might have been a favourable mark but there’s no doubting that he enjoyed the deep ground and he burst he put in after the last was that of a class horse.

If you are a fan of his then you have to give serious chances t Summerville Boy, who won the Tolworth from Kalashnikov and did so in style at Sandown after a slightly disappointing effort on the New Course in December when Western Ryder himself was much the best horse in that race off a pace that didn’t really suit him.

First Flow’s form might leave something to be desired but the way he took the Rossington suggested his engine’s perfect for a test like the Supreme the ground has come just right for him too here. He’s got to be given respect too but the Irish contingent here look strong and it would not be a shock here if Mengli Khan got closer to Getabird than he previously had. He didn’t have the turn of foot that the favourite showed at Punchestown but he had been deeply impressive in the Royal Bond and a strong gallop will be music to the ears of Gordon Elliott, whose charge is 6lbs better off with the favourite.

Paloma Blue couldn’t land a blow behind either Samcro or Duc Des Geniveres in the Deloitte Hurdle but neither of them are ere and that was another career best for Henry De Bromhead’s six year old, who had impressed at Leopardstown the time before that. He could settle better today off a hot pace and there’s plenty to recommend about him if he does manage to race quietly.

Claimantakinforgan has improved since his third in the Champion Bumper, but he has been waiting or better ground all winter and the late rain could have gone against him badly. Debuchet’s Champion Bumper second looks like fantastic form now but he was a blowout in the Deloitte and he too might be one for better ground. Slate House is one who would make more appeal on a better surface too and if anyone is looking for an outsider then Western Ryder, last year’s Champion Bumper fifth who was unlucky in running and who beat key contender Summerville Boy when giving him plenty of weight. He bombed in the Tolworth but this will suit better and he caught a tartar in the shape of Vinndication over further at Huntingdon.

Sharjah is the last horse to get a mention here – and he is big at 20/1 if he bounced back to the form that saw him win his first two starts impressively before falling when he had the Future Champions’ at his mercy over Christmas, although he disappointed at Leopardstown latest.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mengli Khan (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way (16/1 Paddy Power)

2.10 – Read my Arkle Chase preview

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+):

Trevor Hemmings has had plenty of memories at the Festival to relish and he has two extremely appealing chances in the shape of Vicente and Vintage Clouds. His Scottish National win is some of the best form in this race (and deeply impressive given that he retained it) whilst his brilliant second on reappearance here showed that soft ground was not going to be an issue for him, so it’s hard to find too much fault with him. Indeed, considering he’s 151 today, you could say that he’s actually very well handicapped still given that he took the Scottish National off 146 and he wasn’t finished when he fell in the Welsh National.

Vintage Clouds is interesting too, and shorter in the betting to boot. He was seventh in the Scottish National that Vicente won but that’s his worst effort of the past 12 months and several of his other long distance efforts are extremely taking. He was by no means beaten when falling in this race last year and since he has been in fine form. His 18 length demolition job at Aintree on his return was brilliant and he ran into a graded horse next time in the shape of Clan Des Obeaux at Haydock, finishing a respectable second on what was very testing ground. His fourth in the Welsh National reads well and he found only the SA contender Ballyoptic too good at Wetherby last time. 141 looks to be a really good mark and he ought to take the beating if he can put in another clear run.

Beware The Bear’s defeat of Bishops Road in the Rehearsal Chase was a remarkable effort considering the fact Sean Bowen ‘s sadly slipped to the horse’s hind, combined with what was a very shoddy round of jumping for the level. He didn’t get away with that in the Welsh National but a good round here will see him in contention.
Singlefarmpayment was the ante post choice but the ground has gone against him and Gold Present, who has won two good handicaps this season and deserves great respect. Co Star Sivola has a lot going for him although he is now short at 5/1 and Cogry, a winner on his last two course starts, is much more interesting. Watch out for Yala Enki too.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Vintage Clouds (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Vicente (16/1 general)

3.30 – Read my Champion Hurdle preview

4.10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Class 1) (4yo+):

No enthusiasm to take on Apple’s Jade, the outstanding mare in training and a brilliant winner of the Christmas Hurdle ahead of one of the leading contenders for the stayers’ hurdle. Take what you can about her in the morning. Benie Des Dieux has looked a class chaser and we’ll see what she’s made of here, whilst the improvement that La Bague Au Roi has shown cannot be underestimated. Jer’s Girl was just behind her at Kempton when last seen and goes on heavy ground, especially at this trip, although she’s a little worse. She’s an interesting each/way contender.

Advice: Back Apple’s Jade at best morning price.

4.50 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+):

Gordon Elliott’s got a grip on the top of this market and Mossback makes a lot of appeal. His debut when over Snow Falcon and Mossback has worked out really well and whilst he hasn’t won since then, he was going to go very close in the Woodlands Park at Naas before he fell and there was no shame in losing out to the Thyestes Chase winner Monbeg Notorious in the Ten Up Novice Chase last time out. He will thrive for this test, should relish this ground, and appears a stronger stayer than Jury Duty all things considered so gets the verdict.

Ms Parfois was beaten by a high class horse in Black Corton at Ascot and had previously flourished over fences, beating Duel at Dawn by five lengths in the Hampton Novices’ Chase. That pair can go well again with Ms Parfois the preferred of the pair. Sixing Tennessee now jumps much better, is likely to stay, and handles heavy – he’s high on a shortlist which included Keeper Hill although he’s got issues with his fencing.

No Comment was second to a fine prospect at Aintree last year and then a close second at Punchestown in a big three mile handicap; He has had just the one start over fences but it wasn’t a bad effort in the Scilly Isles chase and this will be much more suitable. Whether he stays is a different question but he didn’t jump badly and he’s got the hands of Derek O’Connor to guide him.

Rathvinden has only had a handful of stats over 3 miles but on his one competed three mile start he was an impressive 11 length winner and in both his last starts he was going well before being brought down and then unseating his riders. Those were Grade 1 chases and he’d found only Death Duty too good in the Drinmore and he has to be given a serious chance.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Mossbank (6/1 general)

5.45 – (Old) Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+ 0-145):

This is essentially a conditions race with the field separated by 8lbs and Testify would have made a appeal even in a less compressed handicap. He has won his three chase starts so far, two of them on heavy, and he was never in trouble when he won the Alactar’ Novices’ Chase from Lake View Lad. That did become a two horse contest but he won by seven lengths and Lake View Lead then won a novices’ handicap off 136 and finished runner up after that, so 145 is probably air and he ought to relish this ground on all his form, so he gets the vote to give the North a winner.

Barney Dwan was runner up off this mark when hurdling to none other than Presenting Percy, and in his second season chasing, he has finally gotten the hang of things based on impressive wins at both Market Rasen and Musselburgh. They were on good ground but he is a winner on heavy and also the winner of the EBF Final on soft ground so there’s no too much worry.

Any Second Now has bumped into class horses all season and is a fascinating handicap debutants whilst De Plotting Shed is 7lbs lower over fences than hurdles and the two of them are rightful favourites for a very strong Irish challenge. Mister Whitaker has just snuck in at the bottom here and as the winner of the course and distance trial here in impressive fashion when he was extremely strong at the finish during a day when few were finishing at all, let alone finishing strongly. The time before he’d bumped into Hell’s Kitchen at Kempton in a race which was run quicker than the King George in some parts on Boxing Day and there’s nothing about his profile not to like.

Rather Be could find this a stiffer test at 2m4f than he ideally wants, for all that he looks well enough treated off 143. Le Rocher will love this ground and it’s hard not to catch the eye of Demi Sang, who came with a powerful late charge to won on his Irish debut before finding the Irish Arkle too quick for him and he’s seriously unexposed.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Testify (11/1), 1 pt each/way Mister Whitaker (8/1 general)

Finally, it was great fun being on the JPFestival.com Cheltenham Preview last night and you can watch using the link below:

Watch Cheltenham Festival Preview Replay

Cheltenham Festival 2018 race ratings

by Leave a Comment

Thanks to James of racingtracker.co.uk for the following article. You can follow him on Twitter at @racingtracker. (Article Originally Written on 12th Feb 2018

With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching and all the Festival chatter going on, it is generally the time of year that I start reviewing my Racing Tracker Ratings and look at who are horses to follow and avoid at the greatest show on turf. This month I will take you through the four Grade 1 Championship Races, Unibet Champion Hurdle, Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle and the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Ratings Key

RTR – Racing Tracker Top Rated Horses (TR – Top Rated, NB – Next Best, TB – Third Best, FB – Fourth Best, 5B – Fifth Best, 6B – Sixth Best)

Rating – Score

CD – Course and Distance Wins – (C – Course Win, C D – Course Win and Distance Win not at Course, CD – Win at Distance at Course)

DSLR – Days Since Last Run

HG – Headgear to Be Worn by Horse

OR – Horses Official Rating

Weight – Weight horse will carry in Race in ILBs

TSp – Top Speed Rankings

TLr – Top Last Race Rankings

TTr – Top Trainer Rankings

TJo – Top Jockey Rankings

TTo – Top Rankings based on days race conditions (Ground, Course, Class Form, Distance, Weight)

TSt – Top Stallion Rankings

Jockey – Horses Jockey

Trainer – Horses Trainer

POS – Finishing Position

BSP – Betfair Starting Price

Whether you make your selection on the ratings, form or the horse’s name there are sure to be plenty of Cheltenham betting tips for this year’s Festival.

Unibet Champion Hurdle

On day one of the festival we have the Unibet Champion Hurdle. Apart from reigning champion Buveur D’air, there are questions that need to be answered and entries that may turn up here instead of other festival targets to take advantage of an open opportunity outside of Buveur D’air.

*For Ratings Key – See Start of Article

Buveur D’airs last two runs have been very solid indeed, with ratings over 850. He will more than likely be Top Rated and possibly get over the magic 900 Racing Tracker ratin. Going into the race last year he was rated 7th, but with obvious progression. He came into the race with Class 4 and Listed Race victories (Rated 647). His TSp (Speed) rating could be better.

Faugheen produced a decent performance in the Irish Champion Hurdle.  However overall form of that race ratings wise will not be strong, I expect Faugheen to be outside the top 3, he was rated in the mid-900s for his Champion Hurdle victory in 2015 and he is way below that and needs significant improvement to regain his crown of Champion Hurdler and at 10 years old it’s highly unlikely, even for Willie Mullins.

mytentoryours

My Tent or Yours, is a great old horse at 11 years old. His win at Cheltenham before Christmas ahead of The New One and Melon was solid. It has been franked a little bit by The New One since but took a severe knock by the disappointing Melon in the Irish Champion Hurdle. I expect his rating to improve a little to around 850 depending on who turns up on the day. He could be in the Top 3, but his age would be a big concern.

Yorkhill has an excellent Cheltenham record, but he also had excellent form going into those Cheltenham Festival races. This year he looks like he has fallen out of love with the game and his ratings are on the decline unlikely to be rated in the top 6 for the race. It would take a massive return to form for him to have any chance.

Melon is not good enough to win the Champion Hurdle on what we have seen this season, he is a solid Grade 2/Grade 3 rated horse but not a Grade 1 performer. Defi Du Seuil falls into this category and the form of his Festival win last year is weak.

Min

Min is very interesting, if he turns up he would be a big challenge to Buveur D’air based on Racing Tracker Ratings, a lot will depend on Douvan if goes in the Champion Chase. Ratings wise he is bang up there on his Chase Ratings. If he can convert that back into hurdle form at a general 20/1 he is worth a little NRNB punt.

mickjazz

Mick Jazz is interesting outside of the top ones in the betting, he has had 2 very solid runs, yes he won a weak Irish Christmas Hurdle and that took him from a rating of 686 to 782 in the Irish Champion Hurdle, he will go up a little bit for that into the realms of 800 for finishing 3rd, he will definitely turn up and like Min, he is definitely an EW interest at 33/1 NRNB.

Ch’tibelo and The New One will do well to place if they both run, I want to make one honourable mention for Cliffs of Dover, been off the track for a very long time but holds an entry and he would be a very interesting runner but ratings wise he will be way down the list.

Based on the current entries and last 2 ratings performances and based on the other potential runners Buveur D’air should retain his crown, Min as my second-best option if he turns up and Mick Jazz who has excellent place potential at a big price. My view has been that Faugheen if he runs will struggle to get into the places unless his star has one last time to shine.

Betway Champion Chase

Day 2 sees us watch the speedster chasers flying the fences and this race has some of the best horses in its history books. Last season was a shock result, and no-one can doubt that after Douvans’ demise so what is in store this year.

Altior is clearly some horse, despite his slightly unusual low head carriage, he travels like a dream. He is so good he has yet to be fully tested. The Game Spirit he came in after a long layoff with a Racing Tracker Rating of 897 and he dispatched Politilogue with ease in a slowly run race and that suited Altior as the ratings suggested, he is likely to be in the mid-900s with his record at Cheltenham and will be very tough to beat.

Min as already stated was much back to his best at the Dublin Racing Festival. However. he has too turn around 7 lengths with Altior from the Supreme two years ago. That race has thrown up so many excellent horses. He will be rated in the high 800s, but he will have to improve or Altior will have to not run to his best to win this, as mentioned a lot will be down to Douvan and his fitness in relation to Min.

Douvan would be a contender if he is fit but he will need to be 100% based on his previous form. A lot would depend on the gallop and Special Tiara could make the race very interesting. That could take the sting out of Altior and Douvan could pick up the pieces. I expect Douvan to be well down the Racing Tracker Ratings, if he shows up he would be a good EW bet to nothing, a definite market to watch.

Great Field has not been seen all season and is likely to wait for this race if ready and fit, but as a NRNB at around 14/1 he is a solid price. He made rapid progress last season and finished off with a 739 rating and that is decent for a Novice Chaser. Therefore, I really think Mullins has a few issues and I also think there will be some surprise moves amongst his entries. At least this year there are 48-hour declarations.

Other Notable entries, Un De Sceaux could be interesting if he turns up, will probably attempt to defend his Ryanair title. Special Tiara will give it a crack from the front and that always makes it interesting, will appreciate the better ground, will do well to place.

Fox Norton has definite place potential and at 12/1 is likely to run, you could get better on the day though, I would wait and watch the markets for him for an EW bet.

With the remaining entries I honestly couldn’t point anything else out. through the ratings or on form that could turn up and trouble the main contenders. I have left Politilogue out as I feel he has a massive amount to prove and was disappointing in The Game Spirit.

It is Altior’s Champion Chase to lose, Min likely second, if Douvan doesn’t show, if he does and he is 100% fit Douvan will be second. Fox Norton if you want some EW play in this but wait for the day.

Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle

Day 3 sees the stamina laden hurdlers battle it out for their title. It’s been a year where a horse or two could put themselves in the limelight as the stars of this division.

Supasundae for me is short in the betting and there is no value backing him now. I think he is likely to go off at slightly bigger prices, here is why. He produced a very good performance to win the Irish Champion Hurdle and his ratings will increase from 785 probably into the 830s and that’s solid. But here is my issue with him, I really don’t think he is a stayer. All his best form and best ratings are over shorter trips. He ran a good 2nd behind Apples Jade at 3m, but that is his best form at the trip. He is one to take on.

samspinner

Sam Spinner is my idea of a very solid contender. Stepped up markedly in trip has seen massive improvement and he has some engine. He will go way up the ratings from his 625 rating before his win at Ascot to a Racing Tracker Rating in the 800s, he has never finished outside the top 2 and has stamina in abundance, it is how he does it that will make this one true test. He has a big Chance on what he has achieved this season.

penhill

Penhill is a very interesting contender, his Albert Bartlett win has incredibly strong form, my horse from that race at that time moving onto this was Constantine Bay but he is injured. Penhill followed up with a 2nd at the Punchestown Festival and that form does not scream out, Stayers Hurdle winner to me. He has also been off the track for some time. His rating will likely be in the high 600s to low 700s and that is not quite good enough to win this.

Looking at other entries, Apple’s Jade would be a fantastic runner, but her price reflects the fact she will go to the Mares Hurdle where she would be an absolute banker. Bacardys just isn’t quite good enough and he has been poor on his 2 runs this season.

L’ami Serge could be a fascinating runner and would not be without a chance each way if he shows up. He is a very tough ride and Davey Russell found that out on not one of his better rides last time out at Doncaster.

Yanworth likely to go elsewhere, The New One like with the Champion Hurdle is not quite up to the levels to win this. Unowhatimeanharry now falls into the same bracket, it would be a strange decision to have Faugheen run in this, why risk him? Wholestone is a solid contender but he needs a shorter trip. Of all the other runners La Bague Roi is interesting but will she go to the Mares Hurdle?

labagueauroi

She has decent form and has won her last 4 runs, the last 2 at the stayers’ trip, so there is no questioning her stamina. And at around 12/1 is worth an EW NRNB.

In conclusion Sam Spinner is the likely winner of the Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle, Supasundae I would avoid, this could bite me, but he has not won over the trip and that concerns me. Penhill could be geared up for this so I would watch the markets on the day. My outsider selections if they turned up would be L’ami Serge and La Bague Au Roi.

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup

Day 4 means it’s big the one of the Cheltenham Festival for the Staying Chasers and this year will be an absolute corker. A few horses running well but not spectacular, some unlucky and a couple on a recovery mission. Let’s see who comes into this historic race with the best ratings and form.

Might Bite has won both his starts this season but not in overly spectacular fashion, he went into the King George with a Racing Tracker Rating of 851, and he ran more like an 810 to 820 and that is not good enough for a Gold Cup. It was an underwhelming performance and the proximity of Double Shuffle doesn’t inspire me with confidence, I think Might Bite will struggle to close out the race in the last furlong. He may well win but for me and looking at his ratings profile I will be avoiding him on the day.

Native River looked very good indeed in the Denman Chase, but he was aimed at it from a long way off. Colin Tizzard said this was always going to be his target and he will now be ready for the Gold Cup. It wasn’t a bad Grade 2 field and he won it very well. I expect him to be up there in the top 3 come race day. The only concern with Native River is will he set it up for the closers like last year, I suspect he will.

Sizing John is on a recovery mission of big proportions after a very disappointing Christmas Chase performance.  Quite a few ran below form that day, you could say there are excuses, but the form of the Christmas Chase (Lexus) in recent years has been a very big pointer to the Gold Cup. He will be way down the ratings and I do not think he will retain his crown this year however, after a longer break he could run into a place.

Coney Island is a bit difficult to way up, he has a solid set of ratings, but they are not Gold Cup winning ratings, he could though be very progressive. The negative thing with him is that he has not won over 3 miles in the last couple of years and that does not fit a winning profile in recent times. But a general 10/1 NRNB, he is not one to rule out.

Killultagh Vic had the right rating going into the Irish Gold Cup and all but for a novicey mistake at the last when ahead he surely would’ve won, he was not fully under the pump and we would be looking at a near 900 possibly over 900 Racing Tracker Rating and that is a Gold Cup winning rating. He has some real class and was the only horse to beat Thistlecrack over the stayers hurdle trip when he became a superstar in that discipline. He is my idea of a definite Top 3 finisher. At the price (10/1) NRNB, if he gets more schooling as he is really a novice he has a very big chance. He will go off a lot shorter on the day.

Road To Respect won the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown, but the race did cut up quite a bit with some poor performances. The top 3 in the market performed very poorly and the second and third are not what you would call Gold Cup contenders. He will achieve an 800 plus Racing Tracker Rating and that will give him a chance, he will enjoy the better ground, plus won at the festival last year and Cheltenham form is important. Has an EW chance and like Killultagh Vic will go off shorter on day. Take the 10/1 if you like him NRNB.

Of the remaining entrees likely to run Our Duke needs to up his game, he did smack one a couple out in the Irish Gold Cup, but he was going backwards at the time, has a lot to do to win this. Definitely Red is another that could sneak a place and out run his place. On Official Ratings he has a bit to find and he would prefer it softer.

Disko for me is the best value bigger priced entry at the moment. He will be somewhere in the top 5 in the ratings and at 25/1 NRNB he is worthwhile bet EW. The Same can be said for Total Recall if he shows up. I cannot see anything else entered getting close to winning, but it would be incredible if Edwulf could repeat the fortunate win in the Irish Gold Cup.

On the big day my money will be on Killultagh Vic already taken the 10/1 NRNB prices, as I think he will win this, Road To Respect will also go very close as will Disko who also has some of my early money NRNB. Of the UK horses I’d side with Native River to be ahead of his counterparts.

JOIN US FOR TOP HORSE RACING TIPS

We offer Community and Free Membership. Join our Community for £19 per month and you’ll receive our full range of tips plus access to our Facebook Group. Join us as a Free Member and you’ll receive our Saturday Steamer every weekend plus Will’s Wisdom on big race days.  Learn more…

Recent Posts