Cheltenham Festival 2018 Archives - Page 2 of 3

Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival 2018

March 3, 2018 by Andrew Staines 2 Comments

SAMCRO – The name on everyone’s lips for the 2018 renewal of the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival 2018. The big questions for all punters are:

Can he be that much of a banker?
What price makes him a play not a lay?
Are any of the others capable of raising their game to trouble this Irish charge?

Before I get really stuck into my Ballymore preview JP has asked me to point out that you can access more previews and a whole host of useful stuff with information on tickets, accommodation, night life, race schedule and more here: Cheltenham Festival 2018

No better place to start than to discuss the short price favourite SAMCRO. This horse first burst onto the scene as a highly touted purchase from the point to point scene, as a 4 year old. Making his rules debut as at Punchestown in November 2016, he made nothing more than a satisfactory debut that day and the same could be said for his follow up win at Navan in December. Connections decided against defending his unbeaten record in the Cheltenham Bumper that season and instead opting to allow the horse to physically develop whilst learning his trade. His next run was a smart performance at Fairyhouse, where he won with any amount in hand. Going unbeaten always builds optimism so when he made his hurdles debut at Punchestown, it caught the eye that he was bigger, stronger and quite simply in a league of his own in that field. His victories at Navan and Leopardstown whilst stepping up in grade and company just confirmed that this Gordon Elliott trained horse is something special.

Every single pundit has listed this horse as a banker for the meeting. They may go on to be correct, but horses don’t know their price and it’s important to look for reasons to vindicate that or take him on with value elsewhere.

Possible reasons to take him on?

This season he has been campaigned over different distances and its obvious to me that his future lies as a staying chaser, connections don’t seem 100% certain what race will be the most suitable.
There are plenty of others who have had very good campaigns from very strong yards, who will offer better value – even for a place!
The ground is a big unknown right now, Forecasts are simply unreliable and change daily. Most of SAMCRO’s form this season has been on soft ground, would he act as effective on good, Good to soft ground if it happened to be that?
Finally…. it’s Cheltenham, this track is unique, some horses love it, some don’t. As we speak nobody can guarantee what camp SAMCRO falls in.

So, what of the challengers?

ON THE BLIND SIDE of Nicky Henderson is another who has an unbeaten record to protect in this year’s race. So far, he has improved with every run and showed a clear liking for that stiff finish up the Cheltenham hill when getting the better of Momella in the Grade 2 (former Hyde Novices Hurdle) This horse is worthy of his place in this field and as 2nd favourite. The ground will likely be a key factor in his chances, as you would think on breeding that Good ground would be important come the day. As a punter what you can feel confident on this horse is the way he will see his race out, connections must have been tempted to swerve SAMCRO and go to the Albert Bartlett, I think they’ve made a good call in confirming him for this race. If the favourite isn’t what we think he is, this one could pick up the pieces.

BLACK OP is probably the value in the race, A fair bit of money has started to come for this one, the ground could go in his favour, especially after his magnificent run on trials day at Cheltenham. He and the highly regarded SANTINI quickly scooted clear to battle out the finish in horrible ground. A mistake at the last probably cost BLACK OP the race that day as SANTINI showed why he is a serious prospect for this years Albert Bartlett. In behind that day were multiple winners and some very well thought of horses. The distance they put between them, and the 3rd – AYE AYE CHARLIE was 29 lengths, which suggests both horses might be worth following. With 3/1 available for this horse to place, you have to weigh up if that’s a better bet than backing the favourite at his current price of 4/6?

NEXT DESTINATION will be the Willie Mullins main hope in this race. He finished 4th in last years Champion Bumper which, at the time looked an above average bumper. However, I’m not as convinced now that it was. Winners have come out of it and plenty take their chance next week in novice races but, when the 2nd and 3rd are getting beat the way they have it leaves me feeling a bit unsure on the level of that form and certainly backing the 4th to be good enough to win the Ballymore. What we have seen of this one over hurdles will indicate that if it was to turn up soft or worse he has the form in the book to be in the mix. Similar to ON THE BLIND SIDE this horse looked a stayer in the making and relished coming off the pace and running right to the line. I wouldn’t put anyone off this horse, especially with Ruby Walsh likely to be back on board, I just feel value lies elsewhere right now.

Of the likely big price runners TIKKANBAR done nothing wrong until getting beaten on Trials Day. He will go on most ground but good to soft would probably see him to best effect. A strong travelling horse who will go from the front or near the pace. He lost his rhythm at Cheltenham last time and the ground was awful. He was looked after and come home in his own time. I expect him to outrun current odds of 50/1.

Summary

A great race in prospect. It’s very hard to look past SAMCRO as the winner of this race. He has stacks of class and looks like a future star. He isn’t bulletproof as some might are saying, but, he is a worthy favourite. I would advise to leave backing him until the end of Day 1. I feel he is a good solid play at around (Evens – 11/10) The general 4/6 feels slightly short for any novice Hurdler at the festival. If Day 1 is a bookmaker day, they will take SAMCRO on 100% and we might see patches of Evens available. Therefore, hold that bet for Tuesday evening/Wednesday Morning.

BLACK OP to place at 3/1 or better, is a very solid bet if the ground is Soft or worse. He should give us a run for our money at that price – Generally 14/1 to win the race if you like him.

SAMCRO – To Win (Play at Evens)

BLACK OP – 3/1 to place

For my full Cheltenham Festival 2018 preview, please email stainer85@gmail.com

Cheltenham Champion Day Preview and Tips

March 3, 2018 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

It’s the week we’ve been waiting for. 6 months or more of waiting are over and hopefully you all have a fine week – most importantly let the horses and riders come back safe. This preview and all others are being written with a heavy (pun intended!) focus on the ground. Cheltenham Festival 2018 going is the most testing in 33 years.

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+):

Getabird’s defeat of Mengli Khan in the Moscow Flyer was a deeply impressive performance and the deluge of rain has not hurt his chances at all, so he ought to go very close although he’s only 15/8 and there are better ways to start the week from a value perspective for all he is the likeliest winner. In any case, Kalshnikov’s win in an extremely well contested Betfair Hurdle was as impressive a performance from a novice as we’ve seen all season and he still looks to be in comparison with the favourite. 141 might have been a favourable mark but there’s no doubting that he enjoyed the deep ground and he burst he put in after the last was that of a class horse.

If you are a fan of his then you have to give serious chances t Summerville Boy, who won the Tolworth from Kalashnikov and did so in style at Sandown after a slightly disappointing effort on the New Course in December when Western Ryder himself was much the best horse in that race off a pace that didn’t really suit him.

First Flow’s form might leave something to be desired but the way he took the Rossington suggested his engine’s perfect for a test like the Supreme the ground has come just right for him too here. He’s got to be given respect too but the Irish contingent here look strong and it would not be a shock here if Mengli Khan got closer to Getabird than he previously had. He didn’t have the turn of foot that the favourite showed at Punchestown but he had been deeply impressive in the Royal Bond and a strong gallop will be music to the ears of Gordon Elliott, whose charge is 6lbs better off with the favourite.

Paloma Blue couldn’t land a blow behind either Samcro or Duc Des Geniveres in the Deloitte Hurdle but neither of them are ere and that was another career best for Henry De Bromhead’s six year old, who had impressed at Leopardstown the time before that. He could settle better today off a hot pace and there’s plenty to recommend about him if he does manage to race quietly.

Claimantakinforgan has improved since his third in the Champion Bumper, but he has been waiting or better ground all winter and the late rain could have gone against him badly. Debuchet’s Champion Bumper second looks like fantastic form now but he was a blowout in the Deloitte and he too might be one for better ground. Slate House is one who would make more appeal on a better surface too and if anyone is looking for an outsider then Western Ryder, last year’s Champion Bumper fifth who was unlucky in running and who beat key contender Summerville Boy when giving him plenty of weight. He bombed in the Tolworth but this will suit better and he caught a tartar in the shape of Vinndication over further at Huntingdon.

Sharjah is the last horse to get a mention here – and he is big at 20/1 if he bounced back to the form that saw him win his first two starts impressively before falling when he had the Future Champions’ at his mercy over Christmas, although he disappointed at Leopardstown latest.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mengli Khan (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way (16/1 Paddy Power)

2.10 – Read my Arkle Chase preview

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+):

Trevor Hemmings has had plenty of memories at the Festival to relish and he has two extremely appealing chances in the shape of Vicente and Vintage Clouds. His Scottish National win is some of the best form in this race (and deeply impressive given that he retained it) whilst his brilliant second on reappearance here showed that soft ground was not going to be an issue for him, so it’s hard to find too much fault with him. Indeed, considering he’s 151 today, you could say that he’s actually very well handicapped still given that he took the Scottish National off 146 and he wasn’t finished when he fell in the Welsh National.

Vintage Clouds is interesting too, and shorter in the betting to boot. He was seventh in the Scottish National that Vicente won but that’s his worst effort of the past 12 months and several of his other long distance efforts are extremely taking. He was by no means beaten when falling in this race last year and since he has been in fine form. His 18 length demolition job at Aintree on his return was brilliant and he ran into a graded horse next time in the shape of Clan Des Obeaux at Haydock, finishing a respectable second on what was very testing ground. His fourth in the Welsh National reads well and he found only the SA contender Ballyoptic too good at Wetherby last time. 141 looks to be a really good mark and he ought to take the beating if he can put in another clear run.

Beware The Bear’s defeat of Bishops Road in the Rehearsal Chase was a remarkable effort considering the fact Sean Bowen ‘s sadly slipped to the horse’s hind, combined with what was a very shoddy round of jumping for the level. He didn’t get away with that in the Welsh National but a good round here will see him in contention.
Singlefarmpayment was the ante post choice but the ground has gone against him and Gold Present, who has won two good handicaps this season and deserves great respect. Co Star Sivola has a lot going for him although he is now short at 5/1 and Cogry, a winner on his last two course starts, is much more interesting. Watch out for Yala Enki too.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Vintage Clouds (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Vicente (16/1 general)

3.30 – Read my Champion Hurdle preview

4.10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Class 1) (4yo+):

No enthusiasm to take on Apple’s Jade, the outstanding mare in training and a brilliant winner of the Christmas Hurdle ahead of one of the leading contenders for the stayers’ hurdle. Take what you can about her in the morning. Benie Des Dieux has looked a class chaser and we’ll see what she’s made of here, whilst the improvement that La Bague Au Roi has shown cannot be underestimated. Jer’s Girl was just behind her at Kempton when last seen and goes on heavy ground, especially at this trip, although she’s a little worse. She’s an interesting each/way contender.

Advice: Back Apple’s Jade at best morning price.

4.50 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+):

Gordon Elliott’s got a grip on the top of this market and Mossback makes a lot of appeal. His debut when over Snow Falcon and Mossback has worked out really well and whilst he hasn’t won since then, he was going to go very close in the Woodlands Park at Naas before he fell and there was no shame in losing out to the Thyestes Chase winner Monbeg Notorious in the Ten Up Novice Chase last time out. He will thrive for this test, should relish this ground, and appears a stronger stayer than Jury Duty all things considered so gets the verdict.

Ms Parfois was beaten by a high class horse in Black Corton at Ascot and had previously flourished over fences, beating Duel at Dawn by five lengths in the Hampton Novices’ Chase. That pair can go well again with Ms Parfois the preferred of the pair. Sixing Tennessee now jumps much better, is likely to stay, and handles heavy – he’s high on a shortlist which included Keeper Hill although he’s got issues with his fencing.

No Comment was second to a fine prospect at Aintree last year and then a close second at Punchestown in a big three mile handicap; He has had just the one start over fences but it wasn’t a bad effort in the Scilly Isles chase and this will be much more suitable. Whether he stays is a different question but he didn’t jump badly and he’s got the hands of Derek O’Connor to guide him.

Rathvinden has only had a handful of stats over 3 miles but on his one competed three mile start he was an impressive 11 length winner and in both his last starts he was going well before being brought down and then unseating his riders. Those were Grade 1 chases and he’d found only Death Duty too good in the Drinmore and he has to be given a serious chance.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Mossbank (6/1 general)

5.45 – (Old) Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+ 0-145):

This is essentially a conditions race with the field separated by 8lbs and Testify would have made a appeal even in a less compressed handicap. He has won his three chase starts so far, two of them on heavy, and he was never in trouble when he won the Alactar’ Novices’ Chase from Lake View Lad. That did become a two horse contest but he won by seven lengths and Lake View Lead then won a novices’ handicap off 136 and finished runner up after that, so 145 is probably air and he ought to relish this ground on all his form, so he gets the vote to give the North a winner.

Barney Dwan was runner up off this mark when hurdling to none other than Presenting Percy, and in his second season chasing, he has finally gotten the hang of things based on impressive wins at both Market Rasen and Musselburgh. They were on good ground but he is a winner on heavy and also the winner of the EBF Final on soft ground so there’s no too much worry.

Any Second Now has bumped into class horses all season and is a fascinating handicap debutants whilst De Plotting Shed is 7lbs lower over fences than hurdles and the two of them are rightful favourites for a very strong Irish challenge. Mister Whitaker has just snuck in at the bottom here and as the winner of the course and distance trial here in impressive fashion when he was extremely strong at the finish during a day when few were finishing at all, let alone finishing strongly. The time before he’d bumped into Hell’s Kitchen at Kempton in a race which was run quicker than the King George in some parts on Boxing Day and there’s nothing about his profile not to like.

Rather Be could find this a stiffer test at 2m4f than he ideally wants, for all that he looks well enough treated off 143. Le Rocher will love this ground and it’s hard not to catch the eye of Demi Sang, who came with a powerful late charge to won on his Irish debut before finding the Irish Arkle too quick for him and he’s seriously unexposed.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Testify (11/1), 1 pt each/way Mister Whitaker (8/1 general)

Finally, it was great fun being on the JPFestival.com Cheltenham Preview last night and you can watch using the link below:

Watch Cheltenham Festival Preview Replay

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Evenings

March 2, 2018 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

Join us for our Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview on Monday at 7.30pm over on Facebook. Ask the panel questions and join the discussion about next week’s hot prospects. If you can’t make it you can watch the replay.

SET A REMINDER AND WATCH HERE

If you can’t wait until then go along to Cheltenham Racecourse on Sunday night for the Official Preview sponsored by our friends at OLBG. If you can’t make it you can watch a live stream or recording online.

OLBG are again sponsoring the Official Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview which takes place on the 11 March at Cheltenham Racecourse.

OLBG the long term sponsors of the Mares series are going to live stream the event so no one will miss out on the preview night. If you can’t make to Cheltenham just fire up your laptop or tablet and head to cheltenham.olbg.com

As the excitement builds ahead of The Festival, the Official Cheltenham Preview evening gives you the opportunity to hear the thoughts and opinions of some of the leading industry figures.

The panel consists of John Francome, Fergal O’Brien, Ruby Walsh, Sir AP McCoy and is hosted by horse owner and ITV presenter Jeremy Kyle.

For more on Cheltenham check out our Cheltenham Festival 2018 section.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 race ratings

February 22, 2018 by Racing Tracker Leave a Comment

Thanks to James of racingtracker.co.uk for the following article. You can follow him on Twitter at @racingtracker. (Article Originally Written on 12th Feb 2018

With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching and all the Festival chatter going on, it is generally the time of year that I start reviewing my Racing Tracker Ratings and look at who are horses to follow and avoid at the greatest show on turf. This month I will take you through the four Grade 1 Championship Races, Unibet Champion Hurdle, Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle and the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Ratings Key

RTR – Racing Tracker Top Rated Horses (TR – Top Rated, NB – Next Best, TB – Third Best, FB – Fourth Best, 5B – Fifth Best, 6B – Sixth Best)

Rating – Score

CD – Course and Distance Wins – (C – Course Win, C D – Course Win and Distance Win not at Course, CD – Win at Distance at Course)

DSLR – Days Since Last Run

HG – Headgear to Be Worn by Horse

OR – Horses Official Rating

Weight – Weight horse will carry in Race in ILBs

TSp – Top Speed Rankings

TLr – Top Last Race Rankings

TTr – Top Trainer Rankings

TJo – Top Jockey Rankings

TTo – Top Rankings based on days race conditions (Ground, Course, Class Form, Distance, Weight)

TSt – Top Stallion Rankings

Jockey – Horses Jockey

Trainer – Horses Trainer

POS – Finishing Position

BSP – Betfair Starting Price

Whether you make your selection on the ratings, form or the horse’s name there are sure to be plenty of Cheltenham betting tips for this year’s Festival.

Unibet Champion Hurdle

On day one of the festival we have the Unibet Champion Hurdle. Apart from reigning champion Buveur D’air, there are questions that need to be answered and entries that may turn up here instead of other festival targets to take advantage of an open opportunity outside of Buveur D’air.

*For Ratings Key – See Start of Article

Buveur D’airs last two runs have been very solid indeed, with ratings over 850. He will more than likely be Top Rated and possibly get over the magic 900 Racing Tracker ratin. Going into the race last year he was rated 7^th, but with obvious progression. He came into the race with Class 4 and Listed Race victories (Rated 647). His TSp (Speed) rating could be better.

Faugheen produced a decent performance in the Irish Champion Hurdle. However overall form of that race ratings wise will not be strong, I expect Faugheen to be outside the top 3, he was rated in the mid-900s for his Champion Hurdle victory in 2015 and he is way below that and needs significant improvement to regain his crown of Champion Hurdler and at 10 years old it’s highly unlikely, even for Willie Mullins.

My Tent or Yours, is a great old horse at 11 years old. His win at Cheltenham before Christmas ahead of The New One and Melon was solid. It has been franked a little bit by The New One since but took a severe knock by the disappointing Melon in the Irish Champion Hurdle. I expect his rating to improve a little to around 850 depending on who turns up on the day. He could be in the Top 3, but his age would be a big concern.

Yorkhill has an excellent Cheltenham record, but he also had excellent form going into those Cheltenham Festival races. This year he looks like he has fallen out of love with the game and his ratings are on the decline unlikely to be rated in the top 6 for the race. It would take a massive return to form for him to have any chance.

Melon is not good enough to win the Champion Hurdle on what we have seen this season, he is a solid Grade 2/Grade 3 rated horse but not a Grade 1 performer. Defi Du Seuil falls into this category and the form of his Festival win last year is weak.

Min is very interesting, if he turns up he would be a big challenge to Buveur D’air based on Racing Tracker Ratings, a lot will depend on Douvan if goes in the Champion Chase. Ratings wise he is bang up there on his Chase Ratings. If he can convert that back into hurdle form at a general 20/1 he is worth a little NRNB punt.

Mick Jazz is interesting outside of the top ones in the betting, he has had 2 very solid runs, yes he won a weak Irish Christmas Hurdle and that took him from a rating of 686 to 782 in the Irish Champion Hurdle, he will go up a little bit for that into the realms of 800 for finishing 3rd, he will definitely turn up and like Min, he is definitely an EW interest at 33/1 NRNB.

Ch’tibelo and The New One will do well to place if they both run, I want to make one honourable mention for Cliffs of Dover, been off the track for a very long time but holds an entry and he would be a very interesting runner but ratings wise he will be way down the list.

Based on the current entries and last 2 ratings performances and based on the other potential runners Buveur D’air should retain his crown, Min as my second-best option if he turns up and Mick Jazz who has excellent place potential at a big price. My view has been that Faugheen if he runs will struggle to get into the places unless his star has one last time to shine.

Betway Champion Chase

Day 2 sees us watch the speedster chasers flying the fences and this race has some of the best horses in its history books. Last season was a shock result, and no-one can doubt that after Douvans’ demise so what is in store this year.

Altior is clearly some horse, despite his slightly unusual low head carriage, he travels like a dream. He is so good he has yet to be fully tested. The Game Spirit he came in after a long layoff with a Racing Tracker Rating of 897 and he dispatched Politilogue with ease in a slowly run race and that suited Altior as the ratings suggested, he is likely to be in the mid-900s with his record at Cheltenham and will be very tough to beat.

Min as already stated was much back to his best at the Dublin Racing Festival. However. he has too turn around 7 lengths with Altior from the Supreme two years ago. That race has thrown up so many excellent horses. He will be rated in the high 800s, but he will have to improve or Altior will have to not run to his best to win this, as mentioned a lot will be down to Douvan and his fitness in relation to Min.

Douvan would be a contender if he is fit but he will need to be 100% based on his previous form. A lot would depend on the gallop and Special Tiara could make the race very interesting. That could take the sting out of Altior and Douvan could pick up the pieces. I expect Douvan to be well down the Racing Tracker Ratings, if he shows up he would be a good EW bet to nothing, a definite market to watch.

Great Field has not been seen all season and is likely to wait for this race if ready and fit, but as a NRNB at around 14/1 he is a solid price. He made rapid progress last season and finished off with a 739 rating and that is decent for a Novice Chaser. Therefore, I really think Mullins has a few issues and I also think there will be some surprise moves amongst his entries. At least this year there are 48-hour declarations.

Other Notable entries, Un De Sceaux could be interesting if he turns up, will probably attempt to defend his Ryanair title. Special Tiara will give it a crack from the front and that always makes it interesting, will appreciate the better ground, will do well to place.

Fox Norton has definite place potential and at 12/1 is likely to run, you could get better on the day though, I would wait and watch the markets for him for an EW bet.

With the remaining entries I honestly couldn’t point anything else out. through the ratings or on form that could turn up and trouble the main contenders. I have left Politilogue out as I feel he has a massive amount to prove and was disappointing in The Game Spirit.

It is Altior’s Champion Chase to lose, Min likely second, if Douvan doesn’t show, if he does and he is 100% fit Douvan will be second. Fox Norton if you want some EW play in this but wait for the day.

Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle

Day 3 sees the stamina laden hurdlers battle it out for their title. It’s been a year where a horse or two could put themselves in the limelight as the stars of this division.

Supasundae for me is short in the betting and there is no value backing him now. I think he is likely to go off at slightly bigger prices, here is why. He produced a very good performance to win the Irish Champion Hurdle and his ratings will increase from 785 probably into the 830s and that’s solid. But here is my issue with him, I really don’t think he is a stayer. All his best form and best ratings are over shorter trips. He ran a good 2^nd behind Apples Jade at 3m, but that is his best form at the trip. He is one to take on.

Sam Spinner is my idea of a very solid contender. Stepped up markedly in trip has seen massive improvement and he has some engine. He will go way up the ratings from his 625 rating before his win at Ascot to a Racing Tracker Rating in the 800s, he has never finished outside the top 2 and has stamina in abundance, it is how he does it that will make this one true test. He has a big Chance on what he has achieved this season.

Penhill is a very interesting contender, his Albert Bartlett win has incredibly strong form, my horse from that race at that time moving onto this was Constantine Bay but he is injured. Penhill followed up with a 2^nd at the Punchestown Festival and that form does not scream out, Stayers Hurdle winner to me. He has also been off the track for some time. His rating will likely be in the high 600s to low 700s and that is not quite good enough to win this.

Looking at other entries, Apple’s Jade would be a fantastic runner, but her price reflects the fact she will go to the Mares Hurdle where she would be an absolute banker. Bacardys just isn’t quite good enough and he has been poor on his 2 runs this season.

L’ami Serge could be a fascinating runner and would not be without a chance each way if he shows up. He is a very tough ride and Davey Russell found that out on not one of his better rides last time out at Doncaster.

Yanworth likely to go elsewhere, The New One like with the Champion Hurdle is not quite up to the levels to win this. Unowhatimeanharry now falls into the same bracket, it would be a strange decision to have Faugheen run in this, why risk him? Wholestone is a solid contender but he needs a shorter trip. Of all the other runners La Bague Roi is interesting but will she go to the Mares Hurdle?

She has decent form and has won her last 4 runs, the last 2 at the stayers’ trip, so there is no questioning her stamina. And at around 12/1 is worth an EW NRNB.

In conclusion Sam Spinner is the likely winner of the Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle, Supasundae I would avoid, this could bite me, but he has not won over the trip and that concerns me. Penhill could be geared up for this so I would watch the markets on the day. My outsider selections if they turned up would be L’ami Serge and La Bague Au Roi.

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup

Day 4 means it’s big the one of the Cheltenham Festival for the Staying Chasers and this year will be an absolute corker. A few horses running well but not spectacular, some unlucky and a couple on a recovery mission. Let’s see who comes into this historic race with the best ratings and form.

Might Bite has won both his starts this season but not in overly spectacular fashion, he went into the King George with a Racing Tracker Rating of 851, and he ran more like an 810 to 820 and that is not good enough for a Gold Cup. It was an underwhelming performance and the proximity of Double Shuffle doesn’t inspire me with confidence, I think Might Bite will struggle to close out the race in the last furlong. He may well win but for me and looking at his ratings profile I will be avoiding him on the day.

Native River looked very good indeed in the Denman Chase, but he was aimed at it from a long way off. Colin Tizzard said this was always going to be his target and he will now be ready for the Gold Cup. It wasn’t a bad Grade 2 field and he won it very well. I expect him to be up there in the top 3 come race day. The only concern with Native River is will he set it up for the closers like last year, I suspect he will.

Sizing John is on a recovery mission of big proportions after a very disappointing Christmas Chase performance. Quite a few ran below form that day, you could say there are excuses, but the form of the Christmas Chase (Lexus) in recent years has been a very big pointer to the Gold Cup. He will be way down the ratings and I do not think he will retain his crown this year however, after a longer break he could run into a place.

Coney Island is a bit difficult to way up, he has a solid set of ratings, but they are not Gold Cup winning ratings, he could though be very progressive. The negative thing with him is that he has not won over 3 miles in the last couple of years and that does not fit a winning profile in recent times. But a general 10/1 NRNB, he is not one to rule out.

Killultagh Vic had the right rating going into the Irish Gold Cup and all but for a novicey mistake at the last when ahead he surely would’ve won, he was not fully under the pump and we would be looking at a near 900 possibly over 900 Racing Tracker Rating and that is a Gold Cup winning rating. He has some real class and was the only horse to beat Thistlecrack over the stayers hurdle trip when he became a superstar in that discipline. He is my idea of a definite Top 3 finisher. At the price (10/1) NRNB, if he gets more schooling as he is really a novice he has a very big chance. He will go off a lot shorter on the day.

Road To Respect won the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown, but the race did cut up quite a bit with some poor performances. The top 3 in the market performed very poorly and the second and third are not what you would call Gold Cup contenders. He will achieve an 800 plus Racing Tracker Rating and that will give him a chance, he will enjoy the better ground, plus won at the festival last year and Cheltenham form is important. Has an EW chance and like Killultagh Vic will go off shorter on day. Take the 10/1 if you like him NRNB.

Of the remaining entrees likely to run Our Duke needs to up his game, he did smack one a couple out in the Irish Gold Cup, but he was going backwards at the time, has a lot to do to win this. Definitely Red is another that could sneak a place and out run his place. On Official Ratings he has a bit to find and he would prefer it softer.

Disko for me is the best value bigger priced entry at the moment. He will be somewhere in the top 5 in the ratings and at 25/1 NRNB he is worthwhile bet EW. The Same can be said for Total Recall if he shows up. I cannot see anything else entered getting close to winning, but it would be incredible if Edwulf could repeat the fortunate win in the Irish Gold Cup.

On the big day my money will be on Killultagh Vic already taken the 10/1 NRNB prices, as I think he will win this, Road To Respect will also go very close as will Disko who also has some of my early money NRNB. Of the UK horses I’d side with Native River to be ahead of his counterparts.

Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview No 1 Replay

February 22, 2018 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

We hope you enjoy the replay of our Cheltenham Festival 2018 preview below. Our final preview will take place on Monday 12 March and I hope you can join us then on our Facebook Page at facebook.com/jpfestival – please visit now to set a reminder.

You can find individual Cheltenham race previews and tips in our Cheltenham Festival 2018 section.

Saint Calvados trainer Harry Whittington aspires for Cheltenham win that would be “better than sex”

February 21, 2018 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

The meteoric rise of Lambourn based trainer Harry Whittington is arguably what makes Cheltenham Festival captures the nation’s imagination as it does year-on-year.

Last year a virus in the yard scuppered any hopes of a runner at the prestigious Spring meeting at Prestbury Park, but this year he will go into the week with three live chances, none more so that stable star Saint Calvados in the Arkle.

Speaking exclusively to us, Whittington opened up about how the past 12 months have revolutionised his operation, whilst failing to disguise a giddy smile when asked about the prospect of entering the winner’s enclosure next month.

“At the end of the day, Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of our sport. The buzz of the festival, I haven’t missed a day in 20 years.

“Every time I go I dream of having a winner there and being able to walk in with my horse into that winners’ enclosure.

“I haven’t had the feeling yet, obviously. I imagine it’s better than sex.”

When asked specifically about five-year old Saint Calvados, who only had his first run in the UK on 30th Dec last year, Whittington admitted that the past 6 weeks had been something of a whirlwind.

“It’s frightening where we’ve got to in such a short space of time.

“Andrew Brooks [the horse’s owner] told me the Arkle is the target and to work back from that.

“You couldn’t imagine he’d be that short for the Arkle, but he’s talented – we’ve always known that.

“It’s an unbelievable race, it could be the race of the festival. It’ll be a magnificent festival.

“It’s a bonus running in the Arkle and if he wins great. If he comes back in one piece then great – he’s got the world at his feet.”

“His speed is frightening, it wouldn’t surprise you if he ran in two or three Champion Chases, his pedigree is that there’s a lot of speed in the family.

If there was any doubt whether Saint Calvados belongs in Arkle company, Whittington is already looking ahead to future Cheltenham glories.

A Cheltenham Festival win on Tuesday 13th March could well be the first of many, for both horse and trainer.

For up to date odds on the Racing Post Arkle 2018 please visit Oddschecker.

Racing Post Arkle Chase – preview and tips – Cheltenham Festival 2018

February 16, 2018 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

Many people have a race that they look forward to most during Festival week for different reasons, and mine is the Arkle. This year’s renewal looks to have four top-quality novice chasers duking it out over some of the toughest fences in the country, and if there’s any reason to wish the festival was here already, this race is it.

Before I get stuck into the nitty gritty of the Arkle, JP has asked me to remind you of our Cheltenham Preview on Facebook Live at 7.30pm on Monday and that you can access more previews and a whole raft of other useful stuff with info on tickets, accommodation, travel, night life, race schedule and more here: Cheltenham Festival 2018

The favourite for this since November has been Footpad, a name familiar to those readers here – he was fourth in the Champion Hurdle last year – and that position has been earned with three fantastic displays over fences. He was a short price for his chasing debut when going up against the useful yardstick Brelade, but even the most cynical of observers had to be very impressed with the manner of his jumping and the sheer ease with which he managed to break his maiden over fences.

Indeed, Willie Mullins – arguably the man with the most 2 mile chasing talent in recent times – speaking effusively about his jumping. “He’s as good a novice as I’ve seen schooling at home”, the Cloustton handler said.

He was long odds on favourite to take the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, when his main rival Death Duty didn’t have the pace to live with him and was beaten before falling at the last, with Footpad coming home 11 lengths clear of Any Second Now. He then had a long awaited duel with Petit Mouchoir in the Irish Arkle, when a cleaner season (more on that later) and more experience helped him to another comprehensive victory, which has set him up perfectly for an assault on this prize.

How good is Footpad? Gonna be one of the horses of #TheFestival I feel 🤭 pic.twitter.com/gSMX0NHQ2E

— OLBG Betting Tips (@OLBG) February 3, 2018

Petit Mouchoir was second that day but will surely be on a more equal playing field come the Festival. Henry De Bromhead’s front running grey took the Ryanair and Irish Champion Hurdles last year, getting the better of a fantastic battle with Footpad on the latter occasion, and then he was a fine third in the Champion Hurdle itself. Coming from a yard known for improving horses that go over a fence, there was much excitement before, and even more after his chasing debut at Punchestown when he produced many impressive leaps from the front.

However, a setback afterwards robbed the eagerly expectant racing crowd of a clash at Christmas, and effectively shoehorned him to the Irish Arkle. On his first start since October, he understandably made some mistakes – including cuts at the first and second – but he managed to keep Footpad within sight and was beaten just five lengths at the line, having stuck to the task late when fitness was sure to be at a premium.

With that behind him, we ought to see the gap between the two come much closer this time around.

A spanner was thrown into what the market had as a two-horse race when the French import Saint Calvados twice and impressive winner in handicaps at Newbury, stepped into graded company with remarkable aplomb as he dismantled his rivals in the Kingmaker Chase. He admittedly had only three rivals, but there were 22 lengths between him and the 143 rated Cyrname, with North Hill Harvey even further behind in third.

A repeat of that performance would give the front two a serious amount to think about – but there are questions for Saint Calavados to answer himself. Firstly, the question of how he’ll handle what’s likely to be the fastest ground he’s run on in his career, and secondly, he will be taken on for the lead in a fashion that he hasn’t experienced before. His engine cannot be doubted, although he has much to prove in this context.

Brain Power was a super hurdler and also impressed on his chasing debut at Kempton, but his unseat at the last in the Henry VII (beaten) and in the Clarence House gives jumping worries. North Hill Harvey won a well contested novice event at the beginning of the season over course and distance and then took the Arkle trial, but others have caught up since and his latest effort was a worrying one despite the fact he likely wouldn’t have won.

Shantou Rock was second behind Sceau Royal at Doncaster and well beaten, whilst Cyrname, the winner of the Wayward Lad, looked happy upped in trip when just beaten in the Scilly Isles.

River Wylde won a smart novice chase on his debut but he did not like the soft ground when coming off 18 lengths worse off with North Hill Harvey next time. This ought to suit more although he’s not been seen since and is sure to strip fitter for it. The same has to be said for Capitaine, a faller when held in the Henry VII Chase.

On a line through Demi Sang (beaten over 40 lengths in Irish Arkle) Avenir D’Une Vie and Saturnas will struggle to lay up with the bigger names here.

NOTE: This post has been updated to account for the withdrawal of Secau Royal. The amendment took place on the 7 March.

Advice:

1 pt win Petit Mouchoir, Arkle (11/4 general)

Form Ahead of Cheltenham: Which Horses Are Firm Favourites?

February 15, 2018 by Guest Author Leave a Comment

The Cheltenham Festival is around a month away now and like us, we’re sure you’re starting to think about who you’re going to back across those magical few days.

Trainers and owners are trying to run their horses into form and over the last few weeks and coming ones, it’s worth keeping your eye on all the hottest prospects for Cheltenham.

With bookies already starting to hand out their 2018 Cheltenham free bet offers, we take a look at the horses finding form ahead of the famous roar that signifies the start of the Festival on 13 March 2018.

Coeur De Lion

Coeur De Lion romped home in the Betway Handicap at Southwell to book a place at Cheltenham and will likely run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle in just a few weeks time.

Ridden by Hollie Doyle, he was 13-8 favourite for the race and will now go into Cheltenham looking to better a seventh place finish in the JCB Triumph Hurdle last year. The Coral Cup is also an option for Alan King’s horse and he’s certainly one to watch this year no matter what race he ends up running in.

Native River

Native River has made a real case for the Gold Cup after winning the Denman Chase at Newbury. Despite a prolonged absence of over 300 days the eight-year-old proved to be a real contender and re-announce himself as one of the favourites for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is currently available at 11/2.

He’s still behind Might Bite in the odds market but the Colin Tizzard trained horse has come through what was a major test well and he, along with jockey Richard Johnson, will be desperate to seal that victory in the Gold Cup after coming so close in 2017 when finishing second to Sizing John.

It’s been perfect preparation so far and we’d fancy an each way bet on Native River come Gold Cup Day on 16 March.

Altior

Altior enjoyed a triumphant return to action at the Betfair Exchange Chase at Newbury and will now go into the Queen Mother Champion Chase as 8/11 favourite.

Both jockey Nico De Boinville and trainer Nicky Henderson were thrilled with by his performance, with the latter calling it “perfection”. He’s overcome a breathing operation superbly and has answered all the questions to anyone who thought he might be vulnerable.

Henderson has said they’ll go to Cheltenham happy and confident in their gelding’s form and we have to say we will be too. A firm favourite to back at Cheltenham.

5 things to do in Cheltenham that aren’t the races

February 15, 2018 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

The Cheltenham Festival is one of the most popular events in the horse racing calendar and it is expected that over a quarter of a million people will be passing through the gates of the racecourse over the four days of the festival.

Last year it was Sizing John who raced to victory in the Gold Cup race, but this year, the defending champions is only the second favourite as Might Bite is the favourite to win Cheltenham 2018 on Paddy Power.

There will be some people who are only in Cheltenham for one day of the races, but have foolishly booked a week at the hotel without knowing what else there is to do in Cheltenham, so we have taken a look at some of the sights and activities on offer in the Gloucestershire town.

Cheltenham is known for being a spa town, so it would be a bit strange if there was no spa to visit while on your trip. Chapel Spa is located in the heart of the town and offers a wide variety of treatments, from a massage to maternity spa treatments. Once your day at the races is over and if you’re not a fan of large crowds, then this spa offers you the ideal place to wind down and relax. The on-site facilities also include a gym which offers visitors the opportunity to have a post-race day workout.

Travelling on steam railways has been a thing of the past for decades now, however there are multiple heritage sites that still offer visitors the opportunity to experience this historic method of travel. The Gloucestershire Warwickshire Steam Railway is run by volunteers and offers trips of around twenty-six miles and the route uses part of the old mainline for Great Western Railway from Birmingham to Cheltenham. There are trains that operate from the racecourse and the journey offers passengers the chance to view some incredible scenery in the Cotswolds.

For the animal lovers there are a couple of options for alternatives to the festival; Walks with Hawks and Cotswold Farm Park. Walks with Hawks offers visitors the chance to witness some of the most magnificent birds of prey with the opportunity to handle and fly a variety of these birds. As well as being able to handle the birds, you will also learn about how they fly and hunt as well as the habitat in which they live. Owls and Hawks are the most popular varieties to have an experience with, although there is also the opportunity to handle Falcons and Eagles. In order to visit the centre you will need to pre-book the trip.

The Cotswold Farm Park reopened on the 10th February after its winter break and the farm, which opened for the first time back in 1971. The farm features all of the classic farm animals and with it currently being the lambing season, it is the perfect opportunity to watch a new life entering the world.

The final thing to do in Cheltenham is visit the Holst Birthplace Museum, which is one of only two composer birthplace museums in the country. Gustav Holst was born in 1874 and the museum is a dedication to his life and music, with his best known work, The Planets, the centrepiece of the exhibition. The house that is home to the exhibition is the home that he was born and raised in and pays tribute to the much respected composer.

Cheltenham Festival 2018: Five most backed horses from the weekend

February 12, 2018 by Guest Author Leave a Comment

Altior 8/11 – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Given the ease of Altior’s victory over the much-fancied Politologue at Newbury this weekend, there’s no surprise the money has been rolling in for the two-time Cheltenham Festival winner. There were a few concerns surrounding Altior’s return to the track following a wind operation, but they were soon blown away with a four-length victory on testing ground. That victory has led the Nicky-Henderson trained horse to come in to odds-on from 11/8 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase with every bookie on Oddschecker.

Punters are very confident he’ll make it thirteen wins in a row at Cheltenham Festival 2018, a massive 88% of bets on Champion Chase market have been on Altior since scoring this weekend. The gulf in class between Henderson’s star horse and Politologue was clear to see and the latter has now drifted to 10/1 in the ante-post market.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek said: “Altior couldn’t have been more impressive on Saturday, with Nico de Boinville motionless in the saddle as he eased past Politologue.

“We know he goes well at Cheltenham and will continue to prove popular with punters despite now being odds-on across the board.”

Native River 13/2 – Gold Cup

Doubts lingered over Native River as he made his return to the track in the Denman Chase, however those worries were also put to bed with a 12-length victory over Cloudy Dream. Ruth Jefferson’s eight year-old kept pace with last year’s Denman Chase winner for the majority of the race, but Native River’s class showed in the run-in.

Colin Tizzard’s charge was available at 10/1 before the weekend, but since his victory 77% of bets in the Gold Cup have been on Native River, forcing the price into 13/2.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek said: “Whilst Might Bite is a worthy favourite for the big race at the Festival, there remains the feeling that it’s an open Gold Cup and Native River’s performance put him firmly in the frame.

“Third in the race last year, it was a performance that suggests that the 8-year old could have improved further over the past 12 months.”

Kalashnikov 8/1 – Supreme Novices Hurdle

There was sheer delight for young trainer Amy Murphy over the weekend as her five year-old Kalashnikov cruised to victory in the Betfair Hurdle, shooting him into Supreme Novices Hurdle contention.

On Friday, he was available at 20/1 but this price has well and truly disappeared. He’s now best price 8/1 for the Cheltenham opener. Since scoring at the weekend, a massive 61% of bets have been on Amy Murphy’s star possession.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek said: “The Betfair Hurdle looked a cracking race on paper with whoever managed to finish in-front having to get by a string of top horses so it is no shock that Kalashnikov is proving popular.

“The Supreme market is headed by Getabird who runs for Willie Mullins, and this could be a David vs Goliath match-up as Amy Murphy takes on the mighty Irish trainer.”

Saint Calvados 15/2 – Arkle Chase

Harry Whittington’s Saint Calvados completed possibly the easiest victory of the weekend. The five year-old blew away an experienced field to land a Novices’ Chase at Warwick at the weekend, winning by 22 lengths.

Saint Calvados has shot into third favourite for the Arkle and can be backed at 15/2, some distance from the 14/1 on offer last week. Since blowing away the field at Warwick, 82% of bets have been on the French horse.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek said: “Saint Calvados couldn’t have done more to impress at Warwick and he now looks to have a live chance for The Arkle.

“It’s beggars belief that he can still be found at 15/2, when surely he would be a much shorter price if he represented one of the more powerful yards in National Hunt racing.”

Acey Milan 10/1 – Champion Bumper

Acey Milan was a bit of a surprise winner in the last at Newbury this weekend, beating a couple of strong Cheltenham hopefuls. His victory caught the eye of ante-post punters, following a significant surge in bets, the odds were slashed from 20/1 to 10/1.

Despite being fourth favourite for the Champion Bumper, Acey Milan has accounted for 54% of bets over the weekend.

Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek said: “This Newbury bumper looked like a really hot race, and Acey Milan made an absolute mockery of the field.

“Picking the winner of the Champion Bumper is one of Cheltenham’s toughest assignments, but punters are gleefully taking a chance on Anthony Honeyball’s gelding.”

Thanks to the guys at Oddschecker for this content – view Cheltenham Festival Odds.