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Royal Ascot 2018 – Ladies Day preview and tips

June 21, 2018 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

It’s Ladies Day at Royal Ascot 2018 and Will has a preview plus tips.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only): This doesn’t look appealing as a betting medium and if Shang Shang Shang can reach the level of most Wesley Ward raiders then she’ll take a lot of beating here. It hasn’t been the best week for her stable but if she can reproduce her comfortable win in a 12-runner maiden at Keeneland she should take some catching. The National Stakes is a key form line here and Clive Cox’s Koncheck might come out best, although Kinks didn’t get a run there and could be better running from the front. Aidan O’Brien’s juveniles by and large have all run very well so it’s interesting he sends Land Force here after his third at the Curragh in a listed event. Last time out winners The Paddocks, Rumble Inthejungle, Charming Kid, and Glory Fighter all would not be surprise winners.

Advice: 1 pt win Shang Shang Shang (9/2 Paddy Power)

3.05 – 1m2f Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo): Hunting Horn has had plenty of racing so far but his Prix du Jockey Club sixth is the best form here and if he is ahead of Key Victory (eighth that day) at the end here he ought to have a fighting chance of taking a seriously competitive race. Charlie Appleby’s Key Victory might improve a lot for a better surface and along with Dante fifth Nordic Lights and the deeply impressive maiden winner National Army.

Wadilsafa, who won decisively in a useful minor event at Newmarket over 1 mile, must improve but promises to enjoy this extra distance and he is also on the longlist along with Heron Stakes third Vintager.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Hunting Horn (6/1 general)

3.40 – 1m4f Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo): This is difficult to measure. Wild Illusion and Magic Wand’s Oaks form towers over the field and the latter particularly ought to enjoy being on a faster surface, but they have had 20 days to recover from a slog at Epsom and as Cracksman showed, that is no easy task. six winners since 1997 were being turned out again quickly after running the Investec Oaks but this year’s renewal was a particularly arduous grind. That could also count against Perfect Clarity, who was an impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial but who also couldn’t move her feet through Epsom’s ground.

Sun Maiden is an obvious choice and is a terribly exciting prospect after her romp in a Salisbury maiden by 12 lengths, but the second was a beaten favourite next time out by nine lengths as evens favourite so progression is needed if she’s going to justify favouritism and in an open race she can be taken on.

Since getting fast ground Athena has finished second in Newbury’s Oaks trial and broken her maiden at the seventh time of asking, and Aidan O’Brien’s charge could keep progressing here. This step upto 1m4f – especially around Ascot – could bring out more improvement (closely-related to Bracelet who won this race back in 2014 on her first go at the trip) and on a sound surface she’s looked like a new horse. Her second at Newbury over 10 furlongs to Sea Of Class rates as very strong form, with the winner having been a short price for the Oaks before she bypassed the race to win the Abdingon convincingly. Seven lengths back in this was Crystal Hope, who had impressively beaten the Musidora winner Give and Take and the Musidora third Highgarden (runs here) at Sandown.

Lady Of Shalott should be capable of better following her 4th to Perfect Clarity in the Lingfield Oaks Trial but she will need to improve a great deal and neither of Sarrochi or Sizzling make much appeal. Dancing Brave Bear, a staying on second in the Musidora, has place potential.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Athena (9/1 general)

4.20 – 2m4f Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+): A monster renewal of the Gold Cup with three top quality stayers and Stradivarius can crown himself the staying king in a race to watch and savour. AA rapidly progressive stayer since taking the Queen’s Vase here last year, he has since won the Goodwood Cup when beating last year’s winner of this, Big Orange, and afterwards he was a fine third when dropped down in trip for the St Leger. He was beaten that day by Irish Derby winner Capri and Crystal Ocean, who has won two group contests already this season, with Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling behind him. He ended the year with a fine third on British Champions Day, behind Order Of St George when the ground was extremely testing and the race collapsed late. This faster ground will play right into his hands compared to then.

His return in the Yorkshire Cup, when he had the race won before Frankie Dettori got serious with him, was a perfect tune up and the only worry might be stamina if this is a real test over 2m4f, but he has not failed on that count so far and a small field ought to suit with only Torcedor and Mount Moriah known as front runners.

Order Of St George won this in 2016 and went down fighting in a titanic battle last year. He sets an imposing standard and has turned up quietly with a pair of easy wins in the Vintage Crop and Saval Beg Stakes. If there was to be one chink in his armour, it could be that he goes best with cut as his record shows, and today’s faster surface is a more level playing field between our selection and him.

The race is completed by the presence of Vazirabad, twice a winner of the Prix-Royal Oak and also a winner of the Prix du Cadran last year, along with a three-time winner of the Dubai Gold Cup. He comes here for the first time following a good tune up when he beat subsequent winner Marmelo in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier with plenty in hand (as he always does) and he has a tremendous each/way appeal at 6/1. Some may query his stamina and suitably for this ground but he’s a winner of the Cadran and a lack of potential pace should enhance his chances.

Desert Skyline should enjoy this step upto 2m4f, but he was beaten fair and square behind Stradivarius last time out at York even with a penalty and has also been well beaten by Order Of St George in the past.

Torcedor was a changed horse for front running tactics when spread-eagling the field in the Sagaro last time, but he won’t get such an easy time going half a mile further on fast ground and he was well beaten with fifth in this last year.

Sheikhzayedroad, Max Dynamite, Mount Moriah, and Scotland all have various amounts to prove.

Advice: Watch and enjoy

Just as difficult as the Hunt Cup yesterday but we won that so hopefully we can repeat the trick. The first two in our portfolio are hardly original choices and drawn next to eachother but they have outstanding form claims. George Of Heart was one of two horses to come from the back and take the first two positions in a 7-furlong handicap here; the winner that day was Society Rock, who would win upped in class at Goodwood and then take second in the Jersey yesterday. He looks as if he’ll improve for this extra furlong too, and if repeating the form he’s very well treated.

Curiosity made a fine start to his three year old season when going down by a neck to Symbolisation in a Newmarket handicap and that was boosted by the winner running fifth in the Irish Guineas and then the Jersey yesterday. If he steps forward he can hopefully make a late bid that is just as strong as our top choice.

Ostillo has just snuck in to add another string to Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s bow and he might prove to be their best chance. Possibly best known as the horse who was beaten by Without Parole at Yarmouth, he was eight lengths clear of the third that day and has since proven himself to be useful, making short work of the field on his handicap debut at Newmarket. A mark of 84 might have been lenient then but thankfully he’s snuck in there and Simon Crisford and Silvestre De Sousa have a terrific record together – they’ve won 25 races race together out of 84 at a very healthy 30 per cent.

Those who are greedy could do worse than to look at Aidan O’Brien’s James Cook. O’Brien won this in 2015 with War Envoy and all three of his contenders make some appeal although James Cook could be the most overpriced. A full brother to the magnificent Found, he made a good debut behind a subsequent Group 3 runner up at Naas and was then a convincing winner of a Leopardstown maiden from Latrobe, who has since finished second to group placed hunting Horn and finished second in the Gallinule Stakes. Things haven’t gone so well for him this season, but he didn’t handle Epsom on his return when he needed the run and one has to forgive his Dante run. A really strongly run stiff mile ought to bring out the best in him and it’s interesting he’s been tried at a mile now.

Bond Street and Landshark also took the eye.

Advice: 1 pt each/way George Of Heart (9/1 Bet365, 8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Curiosity (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Ostillo (16/1 general)

5.25 – 1m4f King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105): Godolphin have won three of the last four editions and had the 1-2 last year – once again they have two strong chances. Cross County gave plenty of hope that he’d improve a lot for this this trip when finishing a good second to a very smart prospect at Sandown when giving a stone to the winner. However, they might have an even stronger chance in Dubhe, who was deeply impressive on his three-year-old debut at Sandown.

It was his first time going beyond a mile and it’s no surprise that he thrived for it – he’s out of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens – and if anything, a step upto this trip is overdue given how long it took for him to engage overdrive. Once he did get rolling, he put four lengths between himself and Communique, who reopposes here after winning the uber competitive London Gold Cup going away. That form has already been boosted by runners from that race finishing first and fourth at Epsom’s Derby meeting along with two runners up spots so the

Joseph O’Brien’s Downforce is the second to make the staking plan. The son of Camelot was making his debut going further than 1 mile at Navan when scythed through the field going downhill and eventually found enough to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The further he goes the better and having a proper pace to crack at will help matters too.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Dubhe (12/1 Coral), 1 pt each/way Downdraft (365 Bet365)

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Royal Ascot 2017 – Day 5 Preview and Tips

June 24, 2017 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

Following the victory of Caravaggio at Royal Ascot yesterday, our Plays are now 28.07 points in PROFIT for the season. We finished last season 39.37 points in PROFIT – view all Plays for this season. Join us for today’s 6/1 Play – JOIN US.

Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) (2.30): Aidan O’Brien has run 25 juveniles so far this year, a light seeming number for many – and only one of them has won. That horse is September, who was sensationally impressive when given the order to go and win her maiden. That performance alone had the feel of a pattern class run to it, but she could well improve as so many of her yard does and her position at the head of the market is justified. However this race often sees giant leaps forward so don’t be afraid to look for some each/way value here at big prices. Less than two lengths separated Westerland, Hey Gama and Match Make at Leicester on their debuts and given that the latter two didn’t have the advantage of experience that Westerland did, that form could be reversed and both are interesting chances here. Hey Gaman was beaten just a nose by Westerland there whilst Match Maker was a running on third who now gets a stiff 7 furlongs over which to improve and he has been overlooked at 20’s.

The form of Masar’s debut win at Goodwood has been boosted twice since and he is a worthy second favourite and major each way player. Nyaleti also looked useful on his debut although the form of that race hasn’t been as well represented.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Hay Gaman (14/1 general), 1 pt each/way Match Maker (20/1 general)

Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+ 0-110) (1m2f): Khiraat’s super win at Chester is entirely deserving of his 13lbs rise and he can probably be better than his mark still in time, although there are plenty of options in this handicap. William Buick and Charlie Appleby have dominated these races this week and their Kidmenever has strong claims on two smart efforts at Meydan. This is just his third run for Appleby and he can take a step forward again which would give him a serious chance.

So can Central Square, whose third at Newmarket on his return was a promising effort with this in mind. He ended last year progressing and whilst jumping didn’t suit him, he looked worth of a mark of 104 ad a 3lbs rise for his recent effort is fair given that he’s likely to take a step forward for that run and also the return to a track with a stiff finish. That form also looks reasonably strong as well and his best efforts from last year would have him involved. Pacify’s best form from 2016 would give him a serious chance and a midfield run in the Spring Cup should have him spot on although the handicapper could cut him a little more slack. That said, he should go very well.

If Mythical Madness is as happy at this trip than he has been when refinding his best form over a mile the past twice, then he ought to be considered a serious danger. A wide draw is no help for Elbreth but no horse has earned his mark more and he can go very nicely. The best of Aryad’s form entitles him to be involved here but he has not been cut much slack by the handicapper either. This is a tough return for topweight Scarlet Dragon, but he improved relentlessly last year and his victory in the old Rowley Cup was that of a tenacious improver.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Central Square (15/2 general)

Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) (1m4f): This is an interesting renewal with plenty of questions over the leading contenders. The biggest of them in terms of the market would appear to be whether Dartmouth wants good fast ground but this is not the rocket like surface of Tuesday and is form on fast ground is more than respectable, including a third in the King George and a second in the Canadian International.

Wings of Desire was second in the King George, a fine step up from his Derby fourth, and he then found the Juddmonte too quick for him. If he’s fit and ready for his returns then he ought to take the world of beating and this ground will be perfect for him. Having developed a lot in a short time last year he could be much better as a 4 year old with a winter on his back and he’s technically got the best form of any in the field.

Idaho was third in the Derby and second in the Irish equivalent last year, but since an unseat in the St Leger things have gone south for him and his return in the Coronation Cup was very lacklustre. However, he holds more potential than most to improve for his return there and if at his classic best then he’d be a major player.

Muntahaa was well beaten in the Leger having gone far too fast early and he’s better than that, but he didn’t have much in hand when winning the John Porter at Newbury (when just ahead of Chemical Charge) and he may be swamped early unless everything goes perfectly for him. He’s a quick ground horse so forget his Yorkshire Cup run.

Dal Harralid was a much improved horse last year and carried it on when he won the Grand Cup Stakes at York, upped to 1m6f. The worry for him now is cutting back in trip and going up in grade. My Dream Boat took the Prince of Wales’s Stakes here last year and didn’t do at all badly since; He stayed on well to be second in the John Porter and Hawkbill didn’t do the form any harm with his Coronation Cup third.

Prize Money isn’t going to find this any easier than the Coronation Cup but Across The Stars could do better than his return. He obviously needed his return behind Hawkbill but he won the King Edwards in good style last year and could go well at a price.

Advice: No bet.

Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (6f): Paul Jacobs may have his own theories about what was behind Limato’s poor run at Meydan in the Al Quoz Sprint but the only thing that really matters to Henry Candy’s five year old is the surface underfoot and he has his ideal conditions today. A miler turned sprinter, he was superb in dominating the July Cup last year and then found only the crack speedster Mecca’s Angel too good over York’s lightning fast five furlongs before taking the Prix Foret in similarly easy fashion and when he gets a fast surface he generally reached standard that others in the field would struggle to reach.

One of those who might be able to do so is Tasleet, who returned to sprinting for the first time when smashing the opposition in the Duke of York Stakes. A fine second on his return behind a very good benchmark in Home Of The Brave, he shot clear of Magical Memory, Comicas, Mobsta and The Tin Man to leave them looking like average sprinters that afternoon and whilst he was fit, healthy and chance the ground that day, he was so far superior that his victory cannot be explained solely on that alone and his form figures over 6 furlongs read 411211. He can make a bold bid.

Magical Memory and The Tin Man will both step forward a great deal from those runs and can be in the shakeup, with Magical Memory perhaps the more appealing on this quick ground although it won’t hurt The Tin Man.

Librisa Breeze was remarkably progressive last year over 7 furlongs, taking the International Stakes and then the Tote Challenge Cup, but he didn’t quite cut the ice when he was sixth here on Champions Day and this is a very tough return for all that he might make up into a top class sprinter over 6.

The Right Man won the Al Quoz when Limato was so disappointing, continuing a theme of progression from this time last year to now. Always in the van, the rain that hit Meydan was a huge boost for him although probably not the runner up Long On Value who came just too late on the flat track and who also is a firm ground winner.

This will be the fastest ground that The Right Man has encountered so that form could be reversed today and Long On Value can turn those placings around.

Suedois is not the horse he was last season when placed in three Group 1’s based on three dull efforts this year. This test could bring a lot out of Acclaim, so it would be unwise to look into his Lockinge return too much and he showed a lot of toe to beat Lumiere at the backend of last season in the Challenge Stakes.

Advice: 2 pts win Limato (5/2 general), 1 pt each/way Tasleet (8/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110) (5.50): That Outback Traveller managed to get the verdict in last year’s renewal is impressive (not least given what Brando has managed to do since) but Robert Cowell has managed to get him here just 4lbs higher in the weights and he ought to take the beating.

Raucous bumped into a pair of class acts when third in the Stewards’ Cup last season and his return at Windsor in a listed contest bodes very well for him here.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Outback Traveller (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Raucous (12/1 general)

Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) (5.35): A strong staying race to end the week. Thomas Hobson’s stunning win in the Ascot Stakes was predicted by the market although the manner of it was hugely impressive even for a favourite and a repeat of that would ensure that he takes the beating.

His main form rival is Qewy, fourth in the Melbourne Cup and a very high-class dual purpose performer. He was second in the Ascot Stakes last year off the same mark as Thomas Hobson and he also took the Geelong Cup before his fourth at Flemington. Coming from a yard that has already readied long absent horses and with stamina pretty much guaranteed (or at least as far a 2m4f), he holds huge claims.

Chester Cup winner Montaly is another leading form contender whilst Winning Story’s AW form (on a line through Watersmeet, who ran well in the Chester Cup) has him there or thereabouts.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Qewy (6/1 general)

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Royal Ascot 2017 – Day 4 Preview

June 23, 2017 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

Our Plays are 28.25 points in PROFIT for the season and we finished last season 39.37 points in PROFIT – view all Plays for this season.

Big Orange was the highlight of Royal Ascot 2017 Gold Cup Day with a brilliant ride from James Doyle and a fine training performance from Michael Bell to boot. A nice winner for us with the other tips running well, but the defeats of Mirage Dancer and Mori were a blow.

Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) (2.30): Alpha Centauri has been brilliantly impressive in winning both her maiden and then the Irish EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes, increasing her advantage over horses she had beaten before including Actress (who is here again and who was also a decent winner when beating a next time out winner with a fair amount of ease) between the first and the second run. She can take the beating and get the better of fellow Irish challenger Clemmie, who ran a fine race on her debut when third behind Gasta and Now We’re Talking, who was fourth in the Queen Mary. This ground ought to be much better for her and she can take a big step forward. Fairyland has been highly ranked alongside Wesley Ward’s juveniles and has to be respected after her impressive Keeneland maiden win, although her stable’s two year olds have disappointed in the main with the exception of Happy Like A Fool, second in the Queen Mary. His other contender Princess Peggy is a big price if she’s over her accident with a cyclist on Thursday. Blinkered when winning a 5f maiden on sloppy dirt at Belmont on her debut, she might well be too big. The form of Black Sails’ debut win at the Curragh has taken some hits but she was undeniably impressive there and if taking another step from that she is entitled to be in the shakeup here.

Advice: 2 pts win Alpha Centauri (9/4 general), 1 pt each/way Black Sails (12/1 general)

King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) (3.05): Sir Michael Stoute has gone very close on a number of occasions this week but he may finally hit the board with Crystal Ocean here. The source of flowing reports over the winner, he made a very taking return when winning at Nottingham in April and was then the subject of a heavy gamble for the Derby before his Dante third. He was held up in that contest when the first two there (including Permian) were not that far away from him when he took a very promising third. That was just his third run and the win of Benbatl yesterday (fifth in the Derby) is a boost for the form which suggests that it stands up well in this context. Best Solution was eight in the Derby and Glendcam Glory ninth; Both have a fair task on here.

Permian won the Dante and deserves major credit, having beaten Khalidi easily the time before at Newmarket. He can go well although this trip is a question mark whilst Khalidi was well beaten in the Derby. Salouen got no run consistently there and might well have a better time here with a decent draw in nine to boot today. He gave fitness when finishing a neck second to Khaldi on his return and he can do well here.

Advice: 3 pts win Crystal Ocean (11/4 general)

Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo) (3.40): The betting for this revolves around Caravaggio, a devastatingly Impressive winner of the Coventry Stakes last year when he was on the wrong side, crossed over to the right one and then won by and a fine winner of the Lacken Stakes on his return, having not been seen since his win in the Phoenix. His unbeaten record is not going without a fight but he will have one huge battle on in what looks a fine race.

Godolphin would have bitten your hand of for their results so far this week and it could still get better as they have two big chances of taking a third Group 1 win of the week here. Blue Point beat Harry Angel in what was a very strong Cornwallis on their season al return. Blue Point was a professional winner that day but he got 4lbs from Harry Angel, who was far more relaxed when taking apart the field in the Sandy Lane (Tis Marvellous well held in fourth) at Haydock and he will take all the beating.

Bound To Nowhere has been given a huge vote of confidence by Wesley Ward and if he has been working better than Lady Aurelia then the rest of the field will face a tall order here.

Advice: 1 pt win Harry Angel (3/1 general)

Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) (4.20): here may scarcely have been a more impressive display this season than Winter’s hugely impressive win over Roly Poly and Hydrangea in the Irish 1,000 and a repeat of that or her Newmarket success ought to give her a third Group 1 on the bare figures here.

Pericuse’s win in the Pouliches has to be respected seriously as she appeared to make a serious step forward for the upping in trip to a mile on that day. What remains to be seen is whether she’s at home on ground this fast compared to Deauville where she and the first four home were significantly at an advantage compared to the rest there. That said, she needs serious respect.

Dabuah hasn’t run in either Guineas, but she’s won three of her four and whilst her only defeat came over a mile, there was nothing not to like about her third in the Marcel Boussac. The exploits of Senga have underlined that renewal and her reappearance win was very cosy, even taking into account unprepared and weak opposition.

La Coronel has been impressive in the Appalachian and Edgewood Stakes after a good comeback and the fact that Mark Casse sends her here is a significant endorsement given his success with Tepin in the Queen Anne last year. However her Breeders’ Cup sixth suggest that she will struggle to make an impact here.

Tomyris has come on in great strides and was very game in victory at York when she won the Michael Seely. However that form took a big blow when the next three were all well beaten in the Sandringham and that also took place on soft ground as well.

Advice: No bet.

Queen’s Vase (Group 2) (Class 1) (1m6f) (3yo): The dropping back of this race two furlongs puts another little cloud over what is a tricky enough contest to rate in any case. Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute are the three trainers to focus on and they appear to have very strong chances once again here.

There can’t be a better-bred horse in this field than Wisconsin and whilst he’s still got to find a lot on the bare form, there’s plenty to like about what we’ve seen. The son of Deep Impact and Peeping Fawn found 10 furlongs too short on his debut but he was happier at 12 furlongs last time out when a comfortable winner as his odds suggested he would be. The second and third have since won (the third seven lengths adrift) but if he takes after his mother then there’s got to be a ton more in the locker and he’s worth chancing at 10/1. The slipping of the saddle on Naughty Or Nice means we were robbed of seeing just how strong the Yeats Stakes was. Belgravia was a short priced favourite there who was hampered during the home stretch when he was backpeddling anyway; The victory of Grandee since has at least solidified form claims and Haripour, three lengths back, has since won. He should go well but can be shot at.

That Time To Study won the Edinburgh Cup feels more remarkable with every single rewatch of the race and the form of that race has since been underlined, with the second and third both winning since off higher marks since (stablemate Mister Manduro was fourth). Having raced widest of all and then been forced into the lead three furlongs from home, he found enough to carry topweight to victory and he ought to be very tough to pass today.

Count Octave did his best work towards the end of the Chester Vase even if that race has been let down a couple of times (bar Wings of Eagles, a different case afterwards). Desert Skyline has amongst the best form and would get at least 1m4f whilst Stradivarius can go nicely following another step up in trip from his Chester loss.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Wisconsin (10/1 general),1 pt win Time To Study (6/1 general)

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) (5.35): The key form race may well be the 12 furlong handicap that introduced 1,000 Guineas day at Newmarket and all the evidence suggests that Mainstream was generously treated to be given just a 2lbs rise for his third there. Second Top Tug, who is also worth backing today, has since won nicely at Goodwood whilst winner Frontiersman looks a horse out of the top level based on his Coronation Cup win. Top Tug doesn’t look as well handicapped as him following a good win at Goodwood but that was a performance that deserves respect and the stamina he has will be a fine asset here.

Sixties Groove has been prepared for this for a long time and whilst he’s not straightforward, his efforts at this trip all show that he’s got more to give. Appeared has had a stop start career but progressed well and looked as if he had enough in hand to beat off a 10lbs rise when he was a deeply impressive C&D winner on his return

Rare Rhythm got no run when he was second favourite for this last year on his reappearance. A deeply impressive winner off a 10lbs lower mark before then, that form hasn’t worked out so he does have something to prove for all that the boys in blue have had a stellar week.

Advice: 1 pt win Mainstream (5/1 general), 1 pt each/way Top Tug (12/1 general, 11/1 Paddy Power – 5 places).

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Royal Ascot 2017 – Day 3 Preview

June 22, 2017 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

A winning Play for our Community Members at Royal Ascot yesterday in the shape of Highland Reel giving us a 28.25 points PROFIT for the season – view all our winning and losing Plays.

The stand side dominated proceedings throughout the day yesterday and it’s been noted in making today’s selections.

Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) (5f) (2.30): Fiercely contested and the winner will take some finding. Wesley Ward has already taken two wins this week and his McErin could make the week even better for him. A deeply impressive debut winner at Keeneland in April when he won by 7 & ½ lengths, but he was upset when beaten in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He missed the break that day, meaning that he had to be rushed to the early lead, but if he breaks cleanly today in a different setting he could be too quick to catch again and he apparently has been working phenomenally according to his trainer.

Cardsharp is perhaps more exposed than a traditional winner of this but he had De Bruyne Horse going for a long way in the Woodcote before stamina kicked in and he was then an impressive winner of a neat Beverley conditions event. He gave weight in defeat to the Coventry fifth Aqbah here on his second start and can outrun his price.

Over this stiffer trip Frozen Angel might reverse form from the National Stakes with Havana Grey whilst Sentry’s defeat of Consequences and It Don’t Come Easy reads exceptionally well before you take into account the weight that he gave for having won first time out at York.

True Blue Moon took the Rochestown Stakes at Naas, although he will need to do more still to get involved here on a line through the third who was well beaten in the Windsor Castle. Sioux Nation is interesting – he’s only managed to win a Cork maiden from four starts, but the ground was of no use to him last time and his two length second to Brother Bear now reads very well in this context. Koditime didn’t get home at Newbury on soft ground but was taking on his Doncaster debut and is another who has to be considered closely.

Advice: 1 pt win McErin (5/1 Paddy Power, 9/2 general), 1 pt each/way Cardsharp (16/1 Paddy Power)

Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (formerly The Tercentenary Stakes) (Class 1) (1m2f) (3yo) (3.05): Fiercely contested and classy. Mirage Dancer may want to go up in trip sooner rather than later but this course is certain to suit a whole lot more than Chester on his return in the Vase and he ought to take a serious step forward from that hugely promising run. The winner Cliffs of Moher of course underlined his improvement by finishing second in the Derby whilst he was conceding a run to the second and third, both of whom have strong form. A good 41 day break should also be a significant advantage.

Advice: 2 pts win Mirage Dancer (4/1 general)

Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (1m4f) (3yo) (3:40): The stunningly bred Mori has taken great steps forward with every start and she can make a bold bid to live up to her parents achievements. A good winner of the Height of Fashion Stakes, she had plenty in hands over Coconut Crème at Goodwood and the form was given another boost when Elias Mori took a Listed event at Newbury in good style to underline the form. She can keep improving – as she really does need to – and this trip ought to be just fine for her. Alluringly and Coronet are both the key form contenders although both have only had 20 days to overcome gruelling efforts in the Oaks. Naughty Or Nice, unbeaten in two starts so far and a game winner of the Yeats Stakes at Navan, looks a real stayer who needs respect and Astronomy’s Choice.

Advice: 1 pt win Mori (11/4 general)

Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (4.20): Last year’s winner Order Of St George is the standout here and ought to take the beating following his very decent warmup in the Saval Beg stakes. However the market knows all about him at evens and with 13 other rivals this has a fine shape to it and it’s worth taking a couple to run big races for each/way purposes.

There can’t be a stayer in training that’s more popular than Big Orange and whilst this won’t be anywhere near as simple as the Henry II Stakes at Sandown, he has a big chance of serving it up to the favourite. A tremendously tough front running stayer, either his fourth in the Dubai Gold Cup or his win in the Henry II would give him a decent chance and he took the Goodwood Cup last season to boot.

Simple Verse took the Park Stakes last season before finishing third here on Champions Day and she ought to be involved in the thick of things here, having just been beaten by Dartmouth on her return in the Yorkshire Cup. She has always shaped as if she’ll stay.

One contender who definitely will stay is Sheikhzayedroad, who was third in this last year and then the Goodwood Cup before taking the Doncaster Cup and then winning on Champions Day. A lover of this course and distance, his two runs in the UAE should have put him spot on for this and he comes into his own going further than 2 miles. He has to be respected.

Torcedor beat Order of St George and do so convincingly in the Vintage Crop Stage, although he had the run of the race, fitness advantage and then 5lbs less to carry thanks to having no Group 1 win. However he’s 2-2 for Jessica Harrington and whilst he needs more improvement, everything looks set for a bold show.

Harbour Law was disappointing and greatly so on his return but the St Leger winner (second in the Queen’s Vase last year) can still do well as a stayer and he

Sweet Selection won the Sagaro, having taken the Cambridgeshire in great style last year, and she ought to go well too if stepping forward from that.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Big Orange (8/1 general), 1 pt each/way Sheikhzayedroad (12/1 general)

Britannia Stakes (Colts & Geldings) (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) (5.00): Nigh on impossible. It remains to be seen how the track plays but it was standside or bust yesterday in the Hunt Cup and Sandringham, regardless of the draw. Bring drawn high is a likely advantage however and we have to consider that in our thinking.

Horroob would be a lot short for this had things gone his way when he ran on turf at Goodwood for the first time this season and that misfortune has allowed him to keep his mark of 90. Handed the widest draw of all in 12 – a death knell around the notoriously undulating Goodwood – he ran a blinder to get as close as he did that day and a straight course ought to suit him a whole lot more today. Having just got in, he catches the eye and makes a good amount of appeal especially given that there’s a lot of pace drawn around him which was so important to the results on the straight course.

Make it two on the near side with Colibri, who made a fine return in the Esher Cup at Sandown and can improve to take a hand here. Fourth that day, he was behind Atty Peresse, Much Applause and The Grape Escape, all of whom have finished second since, whilst Junatio Chico, one place behind, has since won a decent handicap at Epsom to boot. The overall form looks rock solid and he can improve from that which makes him an each/way play.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Colibri (12/1 Paddy Power*, 14/1 general), 1 pt each/way Horroob (18/1 Paddy Power)

1m4f (1m3f211y) King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) (5.35): Mark Johnston has won this on five occasions and looks to have a really strong chance to boot with his squad here. Mister Scaramanaga’s two runs at proper middle distance have bought two fine efforts, the first a fine second at Bath in what has turned out to be one for the strongest 3 yo middle distance handicaps of the season and the second when fourth in the Edinburgh Cup when just behind a next time out winner and ahead of a next time out second.

The step back in trip ought to be just fine for him and the form from his first run of the season is well worth reliving. He was ahead of stalemate and subsequent Dante winner Permian with another stablemate Sofia’s Rock just behind. Sofia’s Rock, who is shorter in the betting, was fourth that time and has won impressively twice since – and he can also go well.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mister Scaramanga (16/1 Bet365), 1 pt each/way Sofia’s Rock (9/1 general)

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Royal Ascot 2017 – Day 2 Preview

June 21, 2017 by William Kedjanyi 1 Comment

A magnificent start to the week, with the 1-2 in the Queen Anne and St James’s Palace for short price bettors and value seekers alike plus a 33/1 place in the Norfolk.

Ribchester kicked off the meeting in great fashion for us, hitting the front early but always being that bit too good for Mutakayyed, who ran a fine race as expected. Deauville outperformed expectations to finish a good third, opening up plenty of options for his summer too especially when the ground is this fast. The winner looks set for the Sussex again, where he will take the beating once again and the runner up could go there too – or the Summer Mile as well given he has no penalty to carry at this moment in time.

Aqbah couldn’t quite get a place in the Coventry for us, where Rajasinghe lowered the course record to just get the better of Headway. Not much separated the first six or seven and it might be best to wait and see if the form stacks up although Prince Of The Dark was an eyecatcher in sixth.

Nothing could be done to stop the sensational Lady Aurelia, who won a hugely competitive King’s Stand Stakes on the bridle, with minimal urging from John Velazques, beating last year’s winner Profitable and Marsha in incredible style. It’s testament to just how impressive she was that the race needs to be watched to fully explain the brilliance and he left behind two Group 1 winners in second and third, both making them look average when they ran fine races. Evens for the Nunthrope would be generous if she turned up there fit and well (or just turned up) whilst Profitable and Marsha should have fine seasons.

Barney Roy’s defeat of Lancaster Bomber was punting dream come true that also confirmed the promise he has shown in a short but fine career so far. Godolphin today got the better of Coolmore in the tactical stakes, with the positioning of the main Godolphin two assisting James Doyle, who was ahead of Ryan Moore all the way through and who also came with a clean run down the outside to take a well-deserved win. Lancaster Bomber ran another fine fast ground race for a deserved second ahead of Thunder Snow and the three have realistic chances of taking Group 1 glory before the season is out. Churchill was disappointing, having tracked the leading four, but he did not pick up as he has in the past when chasing opposition and a post-race debrief ought to tell us a lot. A rematch with the winner looks likely if he recovers from any sort of injury.

The Ascot Stakes was won impressively by Thomas Hobson, who could go onto pattern company having been so impressive today, and the Windsor Castle was a Goolphin 1-2 although had our fancy James Garfield managed to break well and keep straight, he may well have taken it all but we can’t complain.

Wednesday will be tougher, but we go again.

Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) (2.30): A very high class renewal which will tell us a good deal about the gap between the fillies and the colts too if all run to form. It’s very tough to split the Poulains second Le Brivido and Guineas fifth Dream Castle, but this lightning fast ground and the 7 furlong trip might just turn things in favour of Godolphin once again and perhaps he can just edge the verdict here. Both will be very tough to beat, however, and perhaps a place bet on Dream Castle is the way to go. Daban, who was a fine third in the 1,000 Guineas, had beaten German Guineas winner Unforgettable Filly in the Nell Gwyn before and this step back to 7 furlongs might well be ideal following her Guineas third.

Those three will take a great deal of catching. Whitecliffsofdover didn’t follow up his impressive Newmarket win at Naas next time out and has something to prove here whilst Glastonbury Song ought to enjoy this much faster ground then he’s had so far and could run well above his price; The same could also be said about Escobar, who disappointed in the Autumn Stakes but was a good second on his return at Sandown. Chessman has been beaten twice since an impressive two tear old debut but that connections are willing to forego his mark of 93 is an interesting statement. Taamol improved greatly for his return when he won the King Charles II Stakes and he could take another step forward too here although he will need to as he was getting 5lbs from the runner up that day.

Advice: 1 pt win Dream Castle (4/1 general), 2 pts Dream Castle to finish in first tree (5/4 general)

Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) (5f) (3.05): Tricky to evaluate but Wesley Ward knows what it takes to win this race so the vote of confidence that all have given to Happy Like A Fool is a huge endorsement and she will take any amount of beating here based on here emphatic Keenland debut when she won by four lengths over 4 & ½ furlongs. She is described as her trainer’s best chance of a winner this week (and well before that) whilst Ward is quoted as saying that “from Day One she showed the most talent of any 2-year-old I’ve had”.

Heartache’s impressive start to her career at Bath was backed up by the time and a subsequent winner from there and she’s shortlisted although there’s plenty of big prices in this field to look at. With Main Desire now out, Neola’s second in the Marygate is amongst the best form and she is a player on that basis although this will be a much faster surface than her two much improved efforts.

Chica La Habana was pitched in at the deep end but she took the Hilary Needler and Beverley and if improving as much as she promised to that day, she must be respected. Formidable Kitt’s dam took this in 2012 for the same connections and she was backed a si fdefeat was out of the question on her Newmarket debut. The worry is that the form of that event has taken nothing but knocks since and she had little in hand at the end.

Mrs Gallagher got the verdict by a nose over course and distance on debut, but she beat two subsequent winners, one of whom (Out Of The Flame) was deeply impressive when dotting up at Windsor, albeit in weak company. She might be worth chancing here in the hope there’s improvement still. Treasuring’s form took a dent when Declarationofpeace lost a show and couldn’t give his running in the Windsor Castle but she was quite taking when a handy winner at Navan (her first turf start) for a stable which won this in 2007.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mrs Gallagher (14/1 Paddy Power*)

*4 places

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+) (1m straight) (3.40): Several who would not be unlikely winners of this race and another strong hand for Godolphin. Usherette took this last year and in good style, but the ground was soft then and she didn’t appear to like the very fast ground at Newmarket in the Falmouth Stakes. That is a worry given how quick conditions will be, despite the fact that she’s run very well in two prep races this season, the latter of them the D’Isphan.

Laugh Aloud has been hugely impressive in two wins this season, the first the Conqueror Stakes at Goodwood before then making a procession of the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. The ground is an advantage to her but it will need to be as both those races were weak compared to what she will face here.

Last year’s Coronation Stakes winner Qemah has been the horse on many people’s minds for this race and had a nice prep when second behind Mix and Mingle in the Chartwell at Leicester. Mix And Mingle got an exceptional ride to win that day from Ryan Moore, although she had the advantage of race fitness and a far better trip. A worry for Qemah however is the very fast ground she will be facing today – faster than anything she’s faced so far – which puts doubt in some way over her challenge.

Smart Call made a very encouraging debut when she was a running on third in the Middleton, having been at the rear of a four runner field in a race run at a relative crawl. A winner over a mille in South Africa, she ought to stop a good deal fitter for that and should find a well run big field mile more to her strengths here. Very fast ground is a potential unknown but she catches the eye. It’s fascinating that John Gosden chooses to start Gret G, an impressive winner of the Gran Premio Mil Guineas on her last start in Argentina, here first time out with Greta G. This ground again is a huge change for her but she must be highly rated.

Advice: No bet.

Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (1m2f): There will be worries about very fast ground for Jack Hobbs but it didn’t stop him taking the Irish Derby as a three year old and the large majority of his form is the standout in the field. He had everything go his way in the Sheema Classic, so expect Highland Reel to get a lot closer to him, but only Almanzor and Found could beat him in the Champion Stakes here last October. He’s reliant on a strong pace but he ought to get it today with Johannes Vermeer and Scottish presumably pacemakers (and a front running Highland Reel).

Highland Reel was typically classy when he took the Coronation Cup and he had leading form claims here. 10 furlongs is also fine for him especially given that he’s going to be trying to make the running.

Ulyesses is typical of so many from his table – finding a huge amount going from three to four – and his win in the Gordon Richards Stakes has been boosted a great deal by Deauville’s fine runs since. However that improvement must come if he is to match the top two at their best and whilst it well could come, 8lbs improvement is needed on the ratings. Decorated Knight is a dual Group 1 winner and respected, but those were both weak contests that he took and he must step forward a good deal more than Ulysses for example.

If the dead eight stay then Mekhtaal has a fair chance at making it into the first three. Sixth in the Prix Du Jockey Club, he has improved steadily since and Jean-Claude Rouget appears to have found his niche now of decent ground and 10 furlongs, and whilst it might not have been the strongest D’Isphan seen in recent times, he had a little more in hand than the neck winning margin suggested and in the Hocquart he was only beaten by Cloth Of Stars, who went onto take the Ganay afterwards. He appears to have been ignored by bookmakers.

Queen’s Trust took the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and was consistently excellent last year, although she has to improve on anything she’s done so far to be involved here. This proper galloping test with a strong pace will be of far more use to her than a farcical Middleton though.

Advice: 1 pt win Jack Hobbs (10/2 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Mekthaal (12/1 general)

(Str) Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) (5.00): Everybody knows how hard the Royal Hunt Cup is so I’m going to get straight into it. Newbury’s Spring Cup is by far the strongest piece of handicap form this season and that Banksea has gone up only 4lbs for winning it on his return looks pretty incredible. Second Another Touch was fourth in the Hambleton and has since won a valuable Nottingham Handicap; Third Fastnet Tempest beat fourth George William in the Victoria Cup before winning again and fifth Bossy Guest got no run but was still seventh in the Victoria Cup.

A repeat of that performance would give him deadly serious claims here and he can’t go unbacked. Fastnet Tempest is fancied by many but he has shaped as if dropped down to 6 would be better than going back upto a mile again and others may finish this Calvary charge.

George William may well be one of them. He gave weight and a beaten to GK Chesterton on his return this season in April before fluffing his lines when at the start when fourth in the Spring Cup. He found 7f just a bit quick for him in the Victoria when it was tough to make up ground from behind but with plenty of pace to aim at from stall 1 this could be rather different today and if he gets the breaks he can go close.

EL Vip should be able to settle of this likely pace and if so, is a worthy favourite for the way he cut through the field on his last start at Newmarket. Abe Lincoln is the subject of many positive reports from all involved with his preparation and the form of the Britannia of last year doesn’t look at all bad through fourth Arcanda, who beat Banksea at York last August. He’s entitled to huge respect.

Several have plenty of each/way appeal at very big prices including Another Touch, so be open minded when looking.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Banksea (12/1 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way George William (12/1 general)

Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo 0-110) (5.35): Almost more difficult than the Hunt Cup as less jumps out to the eye here. Rain Goddess might be top weight but she’s not exposed by any means and her two runs in the Fred Darling and Poluches give her huge credit here. Having needed the run badly on her return, she made good late headway into fourth at Newbury and then built on that when fifth in the Pouliches on ground that she does not like by all accounts (and evidence) behind horses that revelled in the very soft conditions. It’s not impossible that these are her ideal conditions.

On Her Toes and Sibilance returned with excellent efforts in a York Listed race and both are amongst a number who should be able to go well.

Cont Te Partiro is a fascinating runner for Wesley Ward, but stamina must be the issue here for all she has respectable form. Dumfrad Bay is an interesting contender who could enjoy this first crack at a mile whilst Really Special would have a big chance on the direct form of her Meydan Listed third. Grecian Light must find more off this mark after a fair return and a good two year old campaign.

Bean Feasa is also interesting. She’s been busy this season already but the one time she got onto good to firm ground, she was an impressive winner of a 1,000 Guineas trial when well clear of Asking, and she had all chance stolen from her when she was baulked in the real thing on ground far too soft for her. If she gets a clear run she could be worth chancing.

Gymnaste has to be respected on the basis of her handicap debut when she did not get a clear run twice down the straight although that effort still demands improvement here – the winner would likely have been too good anyway.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Rain Goddess (10/1 general), 1 pt each/way Bean Feasa (18/1 general)

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Royal Ascot 2017 – Day 1 Preview

June 20, 2017 by William Kedjanyi Leave a Comment

It’s been a while since I last wrote on these pages, but if there is anything to return for it is Royal Ascot, the pinnacle of the summer. As there are plenty of other commitments for yours truly this week, the updates through the week will be progressively sparser – especially with today being the best day’s racing. Do enjoy, be lucky and don’t overextend yourself!

Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (2.30): There are many bankers and not all of them will win but Ribchester has rock solid claims of starting the week in flying fashion and ought to take the beating here. A winner of the Jersey Stakes in really taking style at last year’s meeting, he was unlucky not to win the Sussex but took the Maoris in great style before his second in the QEII.
Having returned in good style when third at Meydan, he was far too good in the Lockinge for Lightning Spear and he can confirm that form here even on this much faster ground which ought to be no bother for him. A bigger worry might be getting drawn on the inside of what is a very large field especially by the standards of this race. Lightning Spear, who was making his return there, ought to go very well today and looks the chief threat. He looked a little unlucky when he was third in the QEII last year but he’s now 0-4 against the favourite. William Haggas’s Mutakayyef was impressive when taking the Summer Mile here last year (had Dutch Connection well beaten in second) before then finishing third in the International at York. A good third in the Woodbine Mile ended his year and he made a good return in the Dubai Turf behind Ribchester when he was fifth there, but the return to this trip on much faster ground should bring him on a good deal and he can be involved in the finish there.

It’s a surprise to see Deauville here, as for all that he doesn’t lack pace, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes might have suited better. He needs to improve on all his known form if he’s to take a hand. America took this with Tepin last year and has a double handed challenge with American Patriot possibly leading for Todd Pletcher. A winner of the Makers Mark mile, connections are hopeful he’ll improve for the straight mile and he has to be respected. Third in the Duke of Cambridge at last season’s meeting and fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Miss Temple City probably brings stronger form claims if she is turned up to go on her seasonal return.

Advice: 3 pts win Ribchester (4/5 general), 1 pt each/way Mutakayyef (8/1 general)

Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) (3.05): Fiercely contested and a number in with realistic chances. Brother Bear was deeply impressive in the Coventry and ought to go well but there’s a good chance Aqbah can get a lot closer than he did that day and he looks to be overpriced. The son of Exchange Rate was joint favourite for a novice stakes here on his debut and was at a major disadvantage early on against experienced rivals, but he flew in the final furlong to take an impressive win despite getting there by just a head, promising to improve for distance and time. That the Woodcote Stakes second Cardsharp was well involved in the finish (admittedly carrying a penalty) suggests the form is decent and third Haddaf was third in the National Stakes to boot. A deluge ruined his chances in the Marble Hill but back on this track with fast ground he has just as much promise as any of the contenders in the field and he deserves more respect than he’s been given by the market.

There are a host of horses at the head of the field who need serious respect and it might be wise to have two onside here. Aidan O’Brien has taken this three times since 2011 and his Murillo was deeply impressive when he took a Tiperrary maiden (incidentally on faster ground and over 5 furlongs compared to 6 furlongs at the Curragh). He ought to go well and Coolmore are double handed as well with Arawak, who represents Wesley Ward here. His maiden race was rained off the turf at Belmont but he won impressively by seven lengths and he has impressed onlookers since arriving. Jamie Spencer was taken aback by his work with Happy Like A Fool, favourite for the Queen Mary, and if he takes the step forward for going to turf that so many others have, he could take the beating and it is worth chancing that he’ll improve for the extra furlong like his trainer says he will.

De Bryune Horse ought to enjoy this course much better than Epsom, where he was impressive in the Woodcote having caught a useful rival whilst conceding first run. Cardsharp (the second that day) won impressively next time out and the two were an age clear to boot. He makes a little more appeal than Denaar, a winner of a valuable Newbury sales race on soft ground when he showed good attitude.

Nebo was unfancied when he surprised the market on his debut at Newbury, proving very agile when asked to make his move by Callum Shepard before then clearing through the field and beating the fancied favourite and next time out winner Westerland. He’s one of many threats.

The strongest form in this race might come from Romanised, who was short of room for a whole furlong at Navan before coming with a fine late charge to take victory. Third Declarationofpeace won by 6 furlongs at Dundalk next time, fourth Wolffobaggotstreet was second at Tipperary, and fifth another Batt has since finished second and won well at Ripon. He looks big, as does Prince of The Dark – who did well to win as he did on debut at Bath – and Zaman, who beat a next time out winner at York. Headway made a big move to win at Chester by three lengths and he’s clearly got considerable talent.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Aqbah (25/1 general), 1 pt each/way Arawak (8/1 general)

King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Class 1) (3yo+) (3.40); It is difficult to forget Lady Aurelia’s brazen show of speed and power in taking the Queen Mary and easy to forgive her defeat in the Chevley Park (bled), but this is an entirely different kettle of fish and things could be complicated for her without the physical advantage she’ll have over her contemporised here.

The market has now made Marsha favourite and that is more than justified on the basis of her remarkable last pair of wins. She beat Washington DC in a frantic Abbaye and then bettered that effort yet again when she beat Washington DC to take the Palace House at Newmarket on her return. This came with a 5lbs Group 1 penalty on her seasonal debut, making her better off with eight reopposing horses here, and she will take the beating.

This race is more than open to an upset though and backing one at a bigger price appears a wise strategy. Golddream took this when he was at the top of his game in 2014 and after a long time in the wildnerness, he has recovered his best form this year. Firstly he was a good third in the Palace House, and then he came back from a horror start to be a close second to Priceless in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. If he’d gotten off to a level break he might well have won that day (he can definitely be marked up) and this situation is identical to his previous win in the race.

Profitable took this race last year before finishing fourth in the July Cup and he will come on a fair bit for his return at Deauviille in the Prix de Saint-Georges. However, he was well beaten by Signs of Blessing, who gave him a staggering 11lbs and an easy beating. Admittedly that came on very soft ground, but Signs of Blessing has plenty of good ground form and ought to be tough to pass from the front.

It was hard to leave out Washington DC, who has so much fine form over this trip with fast ground, but he was stuck on the right hand side at Haydock away from the action thanks to a bad draw there and being stuck in 18, the same could happen if he’s on the wrong side which is a worry here especially as he’s unlikely to follow Lady Aurelia through earlier.

Advice: 2 pts win Marsha (10/3 general), 1 pt each/way Goldream (14/1 general)

St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Entire Colts) (Class 1) (3yo) (4.20): A mouth-watering rematch between dual Guineas winner Churchill and Newmarket second Barney Roy. Churchill carried on where he’d left off as a Champion juvenile when he took the Guineas, before then dismissing Thunder Snow with ease on a much softer surface in the Irish equivalent. He ought to be very tough to beat once again, but Barney Roy appeals as a horse who can get much closer here. Whilst things went perfectly for Churchill, who followed his favourites in a moderate pace for a classic before then getting the perfect gap to the rail, Barney Roy was lit up and keen early before then taking a stumble badly when coming down into the dip (which he also did not handle) and then winning the race of those in the centre by a neck.

Now it should be understood at Churchill was not lucky to take the Guineas – he did so on his seasonal return and he perhaps a little more in hand – but everything that could go right for him did go right for him and vice versa for Barney Roy, who should relish Ascot, a track where the same kind of avantage will be much harder for Ballydoyle to get an advantage, and if there is a day for him to turn the form around it is today.

Thunder Snow was second in the Irish Guineas on his return from Globetrotting and has to be respected although that form won’t be turned around today. He will be tough to kick out of the places but it’s a well contested race outside the top two with Rivet perhaps sure to be happier at this trip than the 10 furlongs of the French Derby when he pulled his race away early.

Lancaster Bomber was fourth behind Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby and then fourth in the Guineas before his well beaten fifth in the Irish Guineas. You can forget the run last time at the Curragh when the ground ruined his chances and today he is likely to be asked to do far less donkey work with Peace Envoy in the field and his record on fast ground over a mile is a deeply impressive one, having beaten his price many a time. The each/way with the dead eight makes appeal.

Advice: 1 pt win Barney Roy (5/2 Ladbrokes), 1 pt each/way Lancaster Bomber (28/1 general).
*If less than 8, back Lancaster Bomber to finish in first three.

Ascot Stakes (A Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100) (5.00pm): Fiercely contested as ever and there’s two that make more appeal than the rest of the field. Beyond Conceit was a good stayer when last seen on the flat in 2013, finishing fourth in another Goodwood Marathon handicap, and has since become a Grade 1 novice hurdle over staying trip who also had the versatility to finish sixth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The equal at least of many of those who come from the jumps, this trip and track will be perfect for him and he can go very close.

So too can Who Dares Wins, who has had a phenomenal time over hurdles, taking a Listed handicap at Newbury and finishing third in the Coral Cup. He was backed into near favouritism in the Chester Cup and ran a fine race, although he was tuck on the outside the whole way having started slowly and then didn’t get a run when needed in the final furlong. A reproduction of that effort would give him a major chance on a track that will suit a lot more. Magic Circle was also unlucky there and can go well whilst Thomas Hobson is very short off 100 for all he will go well for Willie Mullins, who has won the race twice in the past five years.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Beyond Conceit (15/2 general), 1 pt win Who Dares Wins (11/2 general)

Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) (5.35): A race with plenty of big priced winners in recent years although certain stables have dominated. Declarationofpeace ought to go very close and we will find out the worth of his form a couple of hours earlier but he’s now very short in what can turn into a lottery at 7/2 and he can be taken on, if only on the basis of price.

Infact this is a race where many look to be overpriced and it’s worth nothing that winners here have atypical profiles; having been beaten is not a negative at all and neither is being a maiden to boot.

James Garfield should be neither – and he would be neither had he even had a half decent start at Leicester on his debut behind June Dog. He probably posted a winning effort to get so close, and it’s encouraging that the joint favourite that day, Leesha, has since won. With even basic improvement he looks above average and this stiffer finish ought to be right up his street. He’s overpriced.

Another Batt has had three starts but looks a shrewd buy for new connections. The form of his debut behind Romanised looks very strong (he was just behind Declrationofpeace) and he met a decent rival in the shape of Black Sails at the Curragh on his second start there. He was well ahead of US Navy Flag (third in the Marble Hill) whilst another Coventry contender in Murhillo was a well beaten sixth. A confidence booster at Ripon should be helpful for his chances and he can go very nicely.

It was hard to leave the two Wesley Ward raiders Nootka Sound and Elizabeth Darcy, and a win for either would not be a surprise. Nootka Sound, who is going to stride on, apparently is favoured of the two but it sounds like little separates the pair. Nootka Sounds trashed maidens on dirt at Keenland and is expected to improve greatly for turf, whilst Elizabeth Darcy took her maiden by nearly eight lengths so there might not be much between the two.

Advice: 1 pt each/way James Garfield (28/1 general), 1 pt each/way Another Batt (16/1 general)

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Countdown to Royal Ascot

June 16, 2017 by Guest Author Leave a Comment

One of Britain’s favourite horseracing festivals –Royal Ascot – is just around the corner and excitement is reaching fever pitch. Whilst the new Village Enclosure – the first new enclosure for 100 years – is attracting a lot of media attention, talk has also started among punters about which horses to back.

The world-famous five-day event is a great opportunity to make some money, and whilst reading tips and studying the form book is certainly helpful, the best way to ensure you end the week in profit is by heading over to www.matchedbettingsites.com – a site offering a mathematically proven betting system.

One horse you should be tempted to back is the likely fan favourite Dartmouth. The five-year-old Bay horse is owned by the Queen – who shall be in full-attendance for the festival – and is trained by Sir Michael Stoute.

Dartmouth will be racing in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday’s closing card – the same event that he won last year. The Royal winner comes into the week in fine form, having made a successful return to action in the Yorkshire Cup – the first significant stayers’ race of the season. Nevertheless, he’ll face stiff competition from Frontiersman, who put up a great fight in finishing second in the recent Coronation Cup.

If you want to kick the week off with a win, however, look no further than Ribchester in the Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday. The four-year-old Chestnut horse, who’s trained by Richard Fahey, will be chasing down his second Royal Ascot win. He won the Jersey Stakes last year, and heads into the race in fine form having won emphatically in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last month. His biggest threat is likely to be Lightning Spear, but Ribchester has seen him off in their previous four meetings.

Fast-forward two days to Thursday and the Gold Cup – arguably Britain’s most prestigious event for stayers – the bookies are offering evens for Order of St George to retain his crown. The five-year-old Bay horse heads a field of 17 declared, going into the race off the back of a simple victory at Leopardstown.

Looking ahead to Friday and the Coronation Stakes, and the clear favourite with the bookies is Caravaggio. The three-year-old Grey Colt is unbeaten in five starts, and will be looking for his second win at Royal Ascot after taking the Coventry Stakes with relative ease last year. Whilst he faces some competition – the Godolphin-owned duo Harry Angel and Blue Points are perhaps the strongest – Caravaggio has been described by trainer Aidan O’Brien as one of his fastest ever horses.