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You are here: Home / Archives for Grand National 2017

Grand National 2017 Preview and Tips by Will Kedjanyi

April 8, 2017 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

Grand National 2017 Preview and Tips by Will Kedjanyi

Has the Grand National ever been more difficult than it is in 2017? Changed fences, an ever higher class of runner into the world’s greatest steeplechase, a million plots for one day in particular and a race tempo which is as unforgiving to front runners as it is those who are not in the early van make this truly the hardest test of the year for punters and the prices in recent years show it.

Since a pair of well backed winners in 2010 and 2012 we’ve had 33/1, 66/1, 25/1 (twice) and 33/1 (again) winners, so it pays to look far and wide and not to be put off by the price.

The ground ison the good side and the weather at Aintree has been warm to say the least with no rain set to come so good ground horses should get their chance to shine in comparison to last year when the race became a slog and many wilted. By the start of the Grand National at 5.15pm it is likely to be even firmer.

Saint Are was one of those who didn’t take to the soft ground then but the surface should be completely different and will more closely resemble 2015, when he finished second to Many Clouds in what rates as as good renewal there and it’s interesting to note that he was second off 143. He’s rated 147 now, a generous mark even with the ups and downs he’s had since, and his second at Doncaster in a good Class 2 Veterans’ chase suggests that he retains all of that ability and with conditions to his liking he can make a bold bid. The booking of Davy Russell, who has a wealth of experience with horses like him, has been in the offing for a long time which speaks volumes.

There are a number with serious chances at the head of the market but the compression of the handicap means that One For Arthur will run with the same weight now as he did when he took apart the Classic Chase field. That was just another career best on top of his fantastic debut over the National fences, when he was fifth in the Becher Chase won by current joint favourite Vieux Lion Rouge (with other key players involved). He may have been staying on best that day of all of them, and he promises to improve for going further based on his Classic Chase win. As long as he managed to keep tabs on the leaders early then there are unlikely to be many who finish better.

For those looking for outsiders Stellar Notion and Just A Par are lively candidates. Everything about  Stellar Notion’s form this season suggests that 66/1 is a very generous price although there are doubts about him staying the distance. Caught at the line by A Toi Phil when last seen, he was a fine fourth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown the time before. the winner Noble Endeavour went onto run a fine race when third in the Ultima at Cheltenham whilst contender Ucello Conti was seventh there. Back in October, he had found only Tiger Roll too good in the Munster National. Given how empathic Tiger Roll was in winning the National Hunt Chase at the Festival he clearly bumped into a high class (rated 152 before NH Chase win)

Just A Par is not a front runner, which is the biggest major doubt about his credentials, but it ‘s hard not to find many other positives. He hated the ground when 15th in this last year but it’s important to remember that less than a month later he finished just a short head behind The Young Master off 148. The Young Master is now 22/1, having beaten Just a Par by a short head, whilst Just a Par is 50’s.

He’s not 146, having won at Newbury in a Veteran’s Chase (Leg 3 of the series) when he managed to overcome the soft ground for the first time in a good while, perhaps a serious sign, and the main worry is that he will find himself too far behind, but his price and rating are both tempting.

Grand National 2017 Tips:

1.5 pts each/way Saint Are (40/1 Hills, Bet365)

1.5 pts each/way One For Arthur (16/1 Paddy Power)

For Will’s tips on the other Aintree races join us for free and you’ll get instant access to the Members’ Area.

 

Photo by Rachel Hantonne _rachelmariexo on Instagram.

Filed Under: Aintree, Grand National 2017 Tagged With: aintree, grand national, Grand National 2017

Grand National 10 year trends

April 6, 2017 by Graham Richards Leave a Comment

Grand National 10 year trends

Big thanks for Graham Richards for the this article. JP

GRAND NATIONAL WINNERS OVER PAST 10 YEARS

Date Going Winner Odds Trainer Age Weight OR Jockey (Clm)
2016 Soft Rule The World 33/1 Morris M F 9 10-7 148 Mullins Mr D J
2015 Good To Soft Many Clouds (IRE) 25/1 Sherwood O 8 11-9 160 Aspell L
2014 Good To Soft Pineau De Re (FR) 25/1 Newland Dr R D P 11 10-6 143 Aspell L
2013 Good To Soft Auroras Encore (IRE) 66/1 Smith Mrs S J 11 10-3 137 Mania R
2012 Good Neptune Collonges (FR) 33/1 Nicholls P F 11 11-6 157 Jacob D
2011 Good Ballabriggs (IRE) 14/1 McCain Jnr D 10 11-0 150 Maguire J
2010 Good Don’t Push It (IRE) 10/1 O’Neill Jonjo 10 11-5 153 McCoy A P
2009 Good To Soft Mon Mome (FR) 100/1 Williams Miss V 9 11-0 148 Treadwell L
2008 Good Comply Or Die (IRE) 7/1 Pipe D E 9 10-9 139 Murphy T
2007 Good Silver Birch (IRE) 33/1 Elliott Gordon 10 10-6 138 Power R M

TEN YEAR TRENDS

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

8yo: 1-7-67; 9yo: 3-9-111; 10yo: 3-7-103; 11yo: 3-5-56; 12yo: 0-1-27; 13yo+: 0-1-9

Thirty-eight of the forty places were filled by horses aged eight to eleven-years

All three winners aged eight in the last thirty-years finished in the first five in the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier that season. (Blaklion)

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-32; Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 4-8-91

Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 4-16-188; Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 1-5-87

Eight of ten winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Official Ratings

Horses rated 149 or higher: 4-10-134; Horses rated 136 to 148: 6-20-256; Horses rated 127 to 135: 0-0-8

Since 2009, twenty-seven of thirty-two places were filled by horses OR 143 or higher

Horses OR 142 or lower 1-4-94

Breeding (Win-Place-Runners)

Irish bred horses: 6-24-243

Recent/Past Form

Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first four on their last completed start

Seven of the last ten winners posted an RPR of 146 or higher on last chase start

The last ten winners had run three to six times since 1st September in the previous year

The last ten winners had run in at least ten chases

All ten winners had their last start between twenty-one and sixty days prior to the race

All winners had run since National weights announced

Five of the last ten winners had a run over hurdles in January, February, or March

Course form

Record of placed finishers from previous renewals 09UU49F0374UU02U4 (0-5-17)

Becher Chase winners PPFUPF60 (0-0-8) (Vieux Lion Rouge)

Only three of the last ten winners had previously run over the National

Race Position

Six of ten winners raced prominently; Three of ten winners raced in mid-division; One winner held up

SUMMARY BASED ON 10 YEAR TRENDS

Aged nine to eleven (or eight-year-old that finished in first the five in 2016 Hennessy Gold Cup)

No more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

OR 143 or higher (ideally rated 148+ at some point in career)

Finished in first three on last completed start; RPR of 146+ on last completed chase start

Won no more than one chase this season

Ran three to six times since September 2016 & run since 14th February 2017

Posted career highest RPR in a chase over 3M+ (ideally at a left-handed track)

Has posted an RPR of 147+ in a chase over 3M 2F+; Run over hurdles in 2017

Finished in the first three in a previous Welsh or Irish National

Previously won Class Two or Listed Chase

Minimum ten runs over fences; no more than twenty-four

Last start between twenty-one and sixty days previously

Selection:

BLAKLION

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Filed Under: Aintree, Grand National 2017 Tagged With: aintree, Aintree 2017, grand national, Grand National 2017, Grand National Trends, ten year trends

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse popular for Grand National

March 31, 2017 by Jonathan Pollinger Leave a Comment

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse popular for Grand National

Bets have been flooding in for the most valuable National Hunt race in Europe in recent weeks. Bettors have switched their attention to the Grand National following the end of the Cheltenham Festival just under two weeks ago.

Many of the horses expected to run had an outing at Cheltenham, however a horse which skipped the Festival has been the most popular choice with punters in recent weeks. The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Blaklion last ran at Haydock in February, where it was beaten around three lengths by current National favourite Vieux Lion Rouge.

Blaklion is currently 14/1 third favourite but as short as 11/1 with some bookmakers. Over the last two months he has been amongst the favourites, however he could’ve been backed at 40/1 for the annual show-stopper back in January. Since the final race at Cheltenham the Twiston-Davies-trained horse has accounted for 7.7% of all Grand National bets via Oddschecker.

The second most popular horse since Cheltenham has been Cause Of Causes following his impressive win in the Cross County Chase. Following that success, he was cut from 33/1 to as short as 14/1 with one bookmaker. The Gordon Elliott-trained horse can be backed at 16/1 despite being as short as 12/1 elsewhere. An impressive win at Cheltenham has led to Cause Of Causes accounting for 5.7% of Grand National punts since the festival finale.

Ucello Conti was last seen finishing fourth at Naas earlier this month but despite the 9yo’s form, the Gordon Elliott-trained horse has been popular with Oddschecker users, accounting for 5.14% of bets since Cheltenham. 13/1 second favourite Definitly Red has only captured 4.7% of bets placed on the National, despite winning at Doncaster last time out.

As for the favourite Vieux Lion Rouge, only 4.3% of Oddschecker users have backed the David Pipe-trained horse. The 8yo finished seventh last year, and has two outings since winning both times with Tom Scudamore on board. Unfortunately, 4.4% of bets have already been lost by ante-post punters, due to Minella Rocco pulling out of the race.

The Oddschecker users’ outside selection for the race is Pendra. The JP McManus-owned 9yo heads to Aintree in great shape having finished a fine second in the Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham and he can still be backed 50/1 with William Hill.

 

Filed Under: Grand National 2017 Tagged With: aintree, ante-post, grand national

Grand National 2017 Preview

March 27, 2017 by Geoff Handley Leave a Comment

Grand National 2017 Preview

Grand National Preview by Community Member, Geoff Handley

The Becher Chase run at Aintree in December could be one of the key races to focus on for this year’s Grand National.Two winners of this event Amberleigh House and Silver Birch have gone on to win the big event and also Earth Summit won the 2008 Becher after winning the Grand National in the same year.

Another  race to focus on is  the Grand National Trial at Haydock. It’s a race that the winner of the Trial has never provided the winner of the big race though many have used the race as a platform to winning the main event including Red Rum and is often worth making a note of the placed horses. The conditions were very different this year, very much spring  like and much more akin to Aintree. Normally, the race is run in  heavy going that is typical for the Merseyside track in the winter but this season it was run two minutes quicker than the previous year. The first two home Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion fought it out and we will focus on these two later.

Also keep a note of  all the different Nationals, Welsh, Irish, Scottish plus the classic staying chasers like the Hennessy. I was at Aintree in December to see the Becher and made a note of three of them; the winner Vieux Lion Rouge, the fourth Ucello Conti and the fifth One For Arthur (I will talk about The Last Samuri later).

My two main fancies are Blaklion and One For Arthur both available at 14/1 with William Hill.

Blaklion is a second season chaser (won it last two years) trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, who stated after finishing second in the Grand National Trial:

We will win the National and forget about being second today, had a long time off and that should put him spot on for Aintree. He was much more like his old self. His jumping was spot on at almost every fence and even when he was tired he put himself right and that’s what you need for Aintree.
 

He has a touch of class about him having won the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season and a good fifth in this season’s Hennessy. He was 3rd behind Defiantly Red on Boxing Day under top weight and then made Vieux Lion Rouge fight all the way at Haydock, jumping with great enthusiasm suggesting that he will cope with the big fences.

One for Arthur went into my notebook after the Becher when he was held up at the back before making good headway to finish fifth. It can be hard to make up a considerable amount of ground at Aintree and it would be wise for him not to be too far behind. However the same can be said about Warwick and it can often pay to follow a horse that makes headway from the back to win at such a tight circuit. That’s what happened in the Betfred Classic when hampered by a faller at the second. He found himself in rear but he then sluiced through the field on the bridle to stay on strongly, a sight not often seen at Warwick. One for Arthur is trained by Lucinda Russell in Scotland, is improving and will stay the trip. He carries 10st 6 lbs and five recent winners have had that weight.

At a general 20/1 is Ucello Conti, trained by Gordon Elliott (trainer of 2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch). He finished sixth in last year’s race off a mark of 149 and ran really well for a long way. Travelling strongly for the first time over these fences on the inside, he did well to remain in the race after a bad blunder at the big open ditch (19th). He didn’t quite get home on the soft going after it had rained nearly all day at Aintree. That was it for the 15/16 season and he made his seasonal debut over hurdles at Leopardstown, shaping though he needed the race. He headed back to Aintree for a tilt at the Becher over the big obstacles. Held up in mid div, he made good headway and a slight mistake at the last didn’t help but he ran on at  one pace to be a close up fourth. But a promising run over the unique fences showing a willing attitude to them. Has since run in three of the biggest handicap chasers in Ireland coming 7th in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown, a fine second in the Thyestes at Gowran Park and then after a seven week break finished fourth of the eighteen runners in the Leinster National at Naas, jumping soundly and travelling fluently.

Ucello Conti runs off the same mark as last year’s race and it looks like he has been trained for the race. Experienced at the fences and having run in three of Ireland’s top handicaps this season, he must have a good each way chance. The big stat against him though is that he hasn’t won a chase more than 3m and the last time that happened was Gay Trip back in 1970.

Of the others, Definitely Red is top rated on Timeform and is 10lb well in but in his two races over fences with 14+ runners, he has failed to get round and there must be question marks over his stamina.

The ante post fav Vieux Lion Rouge won both the Becher and Grand National Trial plus as a 7yo finished a cracking seventh in last years race. A 7yo hasn’t won since 1940. No doubt he has strengthened up and looks to have every chance but is now only an 11/1 chance. Cause Of Causes won the Cross Country (I had a good word for it at the a Cheltenham Preview) but that’s probably it until next year’s Cheltenham event. As for The Last Samuri, he was my NAP last season and I backed him throughout the winter but was gutted come the race to see it rain all day and witness a soft ground horse outsider get up to beat it. Such a gallant horse but has another 12lbs to carry this year and that will be difficult. In my 10 to follow is Drop Out Joe from Charlie Longsdon’s yard. He hasn’t been seen this season and the stats count against him as it pays to have a fairly recent run. However at 100/1, I will be having a small each way on it. Just look how Pendra performed at the Cheltenham Festival first time out.

All the money today is for Pleasant Company, currently at 20/1 (from 33’s) so it looks like Willie Mullins lightly raced 9yo heads to Aintree and could well be Ruby Walsh’s ride. He won well last time at Fairyhouse, travelling strongly and jumping well to get up close home. He’s very much unexposed as a staying chaser (only his sixth chase run) and this second season chaser is the dark horse in the world’s greatest steeplechase.

Finally, I have made a note of quite a few runners over the last few months who will hopefully be Aintree bound. Having picked out Willoughby Court for Cheltenham, I was keen on another one of Ben Pauling’s runners. Ben wasn’t happy with the jockey’s ride on it last time. He runs very soon so I will let you know his identity shortly.

Best of luck to all readers and fellow Community Members. Let’s hope for another nice winner!

Geoff Handley
Note from JP and Oli: If you’re a Community Member and would like to write an article for publication on JPFestival.com, please get in touch.
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Filed Under: Grand National 2017 Tagged With: aintree, ante-post, grand national, grand national preview, horse racing, tips

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