I’m not generally a layer. I can’t get into the psychology of wanting a horse to lose. But seeing a weak favourite doesn’t mean you have to lay it. You can back an alternative in the same race if there are also good reason for it to win.
There are currently 15 horses under 4/1 at the Cheltenham Festival and they are not all going to win. Before you lump on a few favourites or combine them in accumulators it’s worth noting that in 2008 13 horses started under 4/1 and only 2 won. Inglis Drever at 11/8 and Master Minded at 3/1. Over the past four Festivals there have been 99 horses sent of 4/1 or less of which just 23 have obliged. Below is a concise banker or blowout guide for the 15 short priced horses.
Dunguib – Banker – This horse excels in many areas and barring accidents will win easily.
Captain Cee Bee – Blowout – Jumps low and fast. A dangerous style over the Cheltenham fences.
Go Native – Blowout – In a very open race he has a good chance but no more so than many others.
Garde Champetre – Banker – I’m not a fan of the cross country race but this favourite should win.
Quevega – Blowout – Not raced this season so extremely hard to win on comeback.
Voler La Vedette – Banker – In the same race as Quevega. Race lacks strength and should win.
Rite Of Passage – Blowout – Hasn’t won a graded race and price is based on potential only.
Long Run – Blowout – Amateur ridden and he’s a difficult ride. Likely to make jumping errors.
Punchestowns – Blowout – In the same race as Long Run. Has been lame so has had interrupted preparation.
Master Minded – Blowout – Didn’t beat much at Newbury and I don’t think he’s as good as he was in 2008.
Big Bucks – Banker – I’ve opposed him with Karabak each way but Big Bucks is different class.
Alaivan – Blowout – Doesn’t grab me at all in a very open race. Not a standout in any respect.
Kauto Star – Blowout – Good chance but he’s been at the top for a while now. 10 yr old winners are rare.
Denman – Blowout – Another 10 yr old in the Gold Cup. He was simply awful at Newbury.
Roulez Cool – Blowout – Plenty of other chances in this open race.
So there you have it. I reckon 4 winners out of 15 horses currently under 4/1. I hope it give you some thought even if you don’t take the above advice literally. Come back at the end of next week to see how my predictions worked out