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HORSES TO NOTE – BY GRAHAM RICHARDS

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HORSES TO NOTE

Here are three horses to note courtesy of Graham Richards. If you would like to get a copy of his National Hunt Guide then please go to http://www.grahamrichardsonline.co.uk/

 

Delta Work (FR) 5yo (07Apr13 br g) Gordon Elliott

Ended last season with an excellent second to Next Destination in a Grade One at Punchestown. Reappearing at Down Royal, he overcame lack of a recent run to make most of the running in a nineteen-furlong Beginners Novice Chase. Impressed Mr Russell with his jumping ability and the way he got out of trouble when too close to the last fence. Winner of the Pertemps Final in March at Cheltenham, he should prove a Graded chaser up to three-miles this time round.

Fleminport (IRE) 5yo (10Apr13 b g) Jonjo O’Neill

Just one run over fences when fifth in a useful Novice Chase at Carlisle won by Vinndication. He jumped well and stayed in the race until higher rated horses came to the fore. Enjoys soft/heavy ground and stays two and a half-miles. As he strengthens and develops three-miles will come into his stamina range. Given his connections (J P McManus), he is one to note when the market speaks in his favour.

Pure Vision (IRE) 7yo (20Mar11 b g) Anthony Honeyball

Progressive three-mile chaser who ran well for a long way behind Rock The Kasbah at Cheltenham. Despite showing good form on heavy ground, he is effective on good to soft. Class Three/Four handicap chases on left-handed tracks appear his best options. Sharp Response (IRE) looked a picture pre-race. He finished sixth but left the impression he would improve for the run. Considered to be on a workable handicap mark for staying chases up to three and a quarter miles. Thought to be best on good through to soft.

 

LOOKING AHEAD TO AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL THURSDAY

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The Royal Albert Dock. Anfield. Goodison Park. The Cavern Club. These are some of the defining features of Liverpool and that’s before you get to the pièce de résistance, Aintree.

The famous racecourse is one of the iconic sporting venues of Britain and it will once again host the Grand National Meeting, one of the greatest occasions of the sporting year.

Whilst minds might be focused on Cheltenham for much of the season – and no wonder – there’s a month at most between the two festivals and many horses aim to double up, whilst some shrewd trainers waiting for the much flatter and more speed focused track in comparison to  Cheltenham’s relentless test of stamina.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Grand National Thursday and who could be the potential stars of the show:

1.40pm Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase

This early in the season many of the less experienced horses won’t have a defined trip right now, but we do know that a number of early markers have been laid down for the Arkle, whilst over this trip of two and a half miles the situation is a little different. Black Op was a winner here after the Festival last season in the Mersey’ Novices’ Hurdle and would be a major contender here if returning to the track that he performed so well at.

Messire Des Obeaux also has course form, if not a longer absence to overcome, but he ran well to finish third in the 2017 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and if his jumping holds up, Aintree could be a natural place for him to return.

 2.15pm Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle

Triumph Hurdle and Fred Winter horses both often go here but this is very early in the season and the majority of horses good enough to line up in this race haven’t even been seen yet. It promises to be another thrilling renewal showcasing the most talented juveniles.

 2.50pm Betfred Bowl Grade 1

Might Bite came here after being beaten last season and he would be a popular choice again if having as good a season, although he has started his campaign earlier this season in the Betfair Chase. He beat Bristol De Mai into second last season and this is probably the best spring target for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge. With Punchestown’s Gold Cup more tempting for Irish Stayers such as the Gigginstown Contingent like Road To Respect, Outlander and Balko Des Flos.

3.25pm Aintree Hurdle

Buveur D’Air has won this before – he doubled up with the Champion in 2017 – and it’s a potential target again. Should he line up then he will be very tough to beat. Supasundae was second last year and is a natural for this, as a specialist over 2m4f and blessed with lots of speed. Samcro would seem sure to head to Punchestown, but Summerville Boy, a strong stayer over 2 miles, could be really well suited by this test.

 4.05pm Foxhunters Chase

There are an awful lot of familiar faces who run in this year after year, and many of them are in double figures in terms of age. Last year’s winner was 12 years old (Dineur) who beat the 10-year-old Banaslow and the 15-year-old Big Fella Thanks. Banalaslow looks the most likely to be around here and is also one of the best performers on the Hunter Chase circuit.

4.40pm Red Rum Handicap Chase

We’ve already had a number of good handicap chases run so far and Bun Doran was impressive on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in a high-quality contest where Doitforthevillage (fourth last year) lost all chance when making a mess of the landing at the second last. His mark could still be handy. Thienval has been second in the last two editions of this contest despite busy seasons and would have a strong chance on his best form.

5.15pm Aintree Mares Flat Race

It’s early in the season but we’ve already had a Listed mares bumper and the way that The Glancing Queen beat Mega Yeats and the impressive two time winner Royal Illusion was very taking indeed and they already look like horses who can take high rank here although the Christmas period will show a great deal of further contenders.

Once again Grand National Thursday promises to be an awesome spectacle with high class races and a fantastic atmosphere; a thrilling prelude to the magic of the Grand National. Remember to book your tickets on The Aintree Racecourse Website.

 

Pertemps Network Final At Cheltenham Festival 2018 – Ante-post Tip

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The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival 2018

An ever intriguing renewal of the Pertemps and one in which my views have changed considerably as the likely field becomes more clear. Gordon Elliot’s Glenloe has clearly been laid out for this race and has a favourites chance for sure as some of his form has worked out extremely well. In particular his Naas run in November when sandwiched between Oscar Knight and Diamond Cauchois looks solid as they have been put up a combined 34lbs since. He hasn’t been lost in the market however as he is currently favourite for the race. A slight concern for me with him would be his strike rate. When all is said and done he has one win from 8 starts over hurdles and whilst he could be a few pounds well in, his only success over hurdles came in a maiden hurdle at Navan where he won by a neck. He travels very well through his races but doesn’t seem to find a great deal for pressure, albeit some of that in his most recent runs may have been as a result of his jockeys lack of desire to run to his very best form with this race in mind. His breeding is absolutely perfect for this race and you have to respect his form and his connections. He looks certain to run a solid race.

Preference however at the prices is for Denis Cullen’s A Great View.  He ran a massive race at Leopardstown over Christmas when narrowly beaten by Mine Now. He came from the clouds to get involved and the manner of that performance suggested that a very strongly run race at Cheltenham will be right up his street. His pedigree is full of stamina and everything he has done on the racecourse supports the fact that he stays very well. He finished fifth last time out under Barry Geraghty when given too much to do and Barry was very easy on him during the final half mile, making very little attempt to close on the breakaway leaders. It looked a pretty cynical ride to me and having not had a hard race he has had the ideal preparation to leave everything behind at Prestbury Park. This race looks ideally suited to him and a sounder surface may also bring about further improvement. With a nice weight he looks a serious contender, particularly given he had Glenloe over 7 lengths behind him at Leopardstown (now 5lbs worse off with him) and he saw out that race far better. If he can stay in touch turning for home I can see him coming with a storming run up the Cheltenham hill.

Recommended Bet:

2pts E/W – A GREAT VIEW @ 25/1 (Betfair)

CORAL CUP PREVIEW AND TIPS

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There’s less than one week to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and here’s a preview of the Coral Cup.

THE CONTENDERS

Modus 11/1 (156) – Modus has been a frustrating horse to follow in the last couple of seasons. He clearly has tonnes of ability having won the Champion Bumper and the step up in trip at Kempton last time saw significant improvement as he bounded away in a competitive handicap. He had previously been finding things happening too quickly and it’s clear that the step in trip was the key to him. He will therefore appreciate and even stiffer test here but his mark of 156 doesn’t look to have much juice left in it for me and in all likelihood he is going to have the burden of carrying top weight which won’t help him in keeping a decent position through the race, something which I believe could be a problem for him. I don’t believe he has the class to concede 7lbs to the likes of Tombstone and Bleu Et Rouge and for that reason I’m out!

Tombstone 11/2 (149) – Has been given an outstanding chance by the handicapper. Connections were highly likely to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle prior to the weights being released for this and they have been tempted to run here instead. The very fact that they were going to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle tells us what high regard they hold him in and they clearly thought he would be placed or the large supplementary fee would not have been worthwhile. With that in mind we have to keep him on side here as he could well be a Grade One animal masquerading as a handicapper.

Blue Et Rouge 20/1 (149) – Given how strongly we like Tombstone then we have to be with Bleu Et Rouge too at the prices. The pair met at Leopardstown in the Delloite last year and Bleu Et Rouge came out on top by three lengths. That is a really smart piece of form and although Bleu Et Rouge was getting 1lb from Tombstone he was only a five year old at the time and when Tombstone came to him at the business end of the race he eyeballed him and repelled him. His chasing campaign clearly hasn’t gone to plan this year but reverted back to hurdles he has to be a major player here. He has tonne of form over two miles doing all of his best work late on in races and so this trip and track should be perfect to him. Given how closely matched he is with Tombstone on the formbook he cannot be overlooked at 20/1 if he runs here.

Automated 14/1 (142) – Gordon Elliott has been very bullish about his chance in this despite the 5lb higher mark given by Phil Smith. He won nicely enough at Navan in December when beating Scoir Mear. The two pulled a long way clear of the third and there was plenty to like about the performance as he came from last to first to win. Brian Cooper clearly knew he was on the best horse and he won going away. His strike rate of 2 wins from 10 starts over hurdles, coupled with the shocking recent record of horses returning from a break of over 90 days at the Festival is a negative but he will go close I’m sure.

No Comment 20/1 (137) – As it stands No Comment has little chance of getting into the race as number 64 on the list. However, he is entered in a handicap hurdle at Sandown on Saturday and if he were to win there then the 5lb penalty would almost certainly book his place here. He is a horse that I have had in my notebook since the start of the season. I think he has a proper engine and he’s been progressing nicely win three victories since having his colours lowered by the extremely smart Robin Roe. He has given the impression that a step up in class and a truly run race on a stiff track would be right up his street. With the NRNB concession he is worth siding with as if he gets into the race I can see him halving in price, particularly if he wins with authority on Saturday.

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Recommended Bets

2 PTS WIN – TOMBSTONE @ 11/2 (General) NRNB

1 PT WIN – BLEU ET ROUGE @ 20/1 (General) NRNB

1 PT WIN – NO COMMENT @ 20/1 (General) NRNB

 

FRED WINTER PREVIEW AND TIPS

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There’s less than one week to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and here’s a preview of the Fred Winter.

THE CONTENDERS

Mega Fortune 14/1 (151) – It’s highly unlikely that he will run here as he has been given very little chance from a mark of 151. Connections are far more likely to favour the Triumph Hurdle for which he would be a leading player.

Master Blueyes 10/1 (150) – He has been progressing very nicely this season and I personally believe that he would have beaten Charlie Parcs at Kempton if the favourite had stood up. He looked to have improved significantly since the pair previously met and came away strongly in the closing stages. I think the stiffer test at Cheltenham will suit him and he is definitely a player. However, a mark of 150 and likely top weight could be his undoing with a plethora of progressive and well handicapped horse below him. He is another that is likely to take his chance in the Triumph.

Landofhopeandglory 16/1 (147) – I was never his biggest fan and wasn’t as taken as many were with his first three performances over hurdles. He has subsequently been put in his place and I’m certain that a mark of 147 sees him have very little chance in a race like this.

Dinaria Des Obeaux 12/1 (139) – Dinaria Des Obeaux looks a very smart filly. She won convincingly on hurdling debut before chasing home Triumph hopefuls Mega Fortune and Bapaume at Leopardstown. She seemed to be done for a bit of toe last time out at Fairyhouse before staying on powerfully in the closing stages and meeting trouble in running before being awarded the race in the stewards room. I step up would be ideal for her in the longer term but I’m certain that a strongly run race at a stiff track will also see her perform well and she will get that here.

Divin Bere 7/1 (139) – Divin Bere won in tenacious fashion on her British debut at Huntingdon, beating none other than Master Blue Eyes narrowly despite having to concede 4lbs to the runner up. Given that Master Blueyes is now rated 150 it looks a useful piece of form. Divin Bere is entitled to improve for that run too and so he has an outstanding chance and could be firmly on the right side of the handicapper. He has significant experience to draw upon from his time in France and is well worth his place at the head of the market.

Dolos 14/1 (134) – A quick glance at his two runs so far would leave a positive impression seeing that he was beaten by a potential superstar in Defi Du Seuil and a decent horse in Air Horse One. However, Alan King’s The Unit gave him 16lbs and a beating the last day and whilst he is a decent horse and has gone on to win subsequently, he is no world beater and that performance does suggest to me that Dolos isn’t as well treated as some of Paul Nicholl’s horse have been in previous years. Whilst he could run well I don’t see him as a major player judged on what we have seen so far.

Poker Play 16/1 (133) – David Pipe’s gelding could be very well handicapped if some of his French form is taken literally. He was a close second behind Charlie Parcs in France in November last year. He made his UK debut at Kempton in January and was sent off 1/3 favourite but could only finish second to Fidux. He was keen in the early stages of that race though and there is every chance he will come on significantly for that experience. His starting price that day certainly suggests that he is very well regarded and from a mark of just 133 he could be nicely treated.

Domperignon Du Lys 10/1 (133) – He is two from three over hurdles and on the occasion he did not win he finished well behind the smart Defi Du Seuil. He is with the right trainer to fulfil his potential in Nicky Henderson, but he hasn’t achieved a substantial amount on the racetrack yet. A mark of 133 could underestimate his abilities and I think there is more to come, but he doesn’t look a superstar or a handicap good thing at this point.

Coeur De Lion 14/1 (133) – Coeur De Lion could potentially be very well treated here. He is 2 from 4 over hurdles having achieved two notable scalps in Forth Bridge and most recently Nicky Henderson’s Rather Be. On the two occasions that he met with defeat he came across decent animals in Defi Du Seuil and Don Bersy, both of which have won on multiple occasions subsequently. With all of his hurdles form having a solid look to it his mark of 133 could be quite lenient and there is every indication that more improvement is to come. Importantly, he appears to have a very likeable attitude and loves a battle, having been involved in several close finishes. That experience will be very useful in a large field competitive handicap like this. He definitely has leading claims.

Dreamcatching 8/1 (131) – He would appear to be the leading player for last year’s winning trainer Paul Nicholls. I tipped up Diego Du Charmil as a very strong fancy for the race last season but I’m not mad keen on Dreamcatching here. His trainer clearly thought he needed to get some experience into him and whilst he was impressive at Wincanton he beat absolutely nothing and the form is bordering on worthless. He has a lot more on his plate here and although nicely weighted I think he has a good bit to find. Whilst I wouldn’t be laying him I think he has been over bet already.

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Recommended Bets

1 PT EACH WAY – COEUR DE LION @ 14/1 (General) BOG NRNB

1 PT WIN – DIVIN BERE @ 7/1 (General) BOG NRNB

Although experience isn’t always the order of the day in this race as Diego Du Charmil proved last year, it is certainly a big help to have some solid looking form. The two that stand out for me based upon what they have achieved versus their official rating are Divin Bere and Coeur De Lion. The former could be very well treated based on his beating of the now highly rated Master Blue Eyes. The latter has run some fantastic races, all of which have worked out fairly well and his attitude in combination with being well potentially nicely handicapped is a huge draw. Both lok well treated and should run well here in a wide open contest.

NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE PREVIEW AND TIPS

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There’s one week to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and here’s a review of the Novices Handicap Chase on Day 1.

Foxtail Hill 8/1 (140) – Was getting chunks of weight from Saphir Du Rheu when scoring at Cheltenham last time. However, that was still a very useful performance from a novice against experienced opposition and he is clearly very progressive. He jumped left all the way round at Kempton previously and still won with a tonne in hand. He looks the ideal type for the race as he is straight forward, jumps extremely well and will just get on with the job out in front. He is one to take very seriously for local trainer Nigel Twiston Davies and will be very difficult to peg back if allowed to dictate.

Value At Risk 10/1 (138) – Couldn’t back it with counterfeit money. A very well regarded animal and achieved a good deal over hurdles but lost his way some time ago and simply isn’t a very good jumper. He is one from four over the larger obstacles having fallen twice and beat absolutely nothing in a four runner race the last day at Doncaster. I cannot understand why he is so prominent in the betting as his chance doesn’t even compare to Foxtail Hill who brings a better level of form and significantly better jumping ability to the table.

Gold Present 16/1 (137) – He was disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day which JP and I attended, but prior to that and subsequently he put in useful performances. He ran a big race last time out at Kempton when chasing home the 150+ rated Frodon in receipt of just 1lb. He was also very impressive on his chasing debut at Doncaster. If we forgive him the run over Christmas then he holds every chance here if stepping up again on his most recent performance. He will have learnt a lot last time out when he wandered around in the closing stages but jumped well throughout.

Two Taffs 16/1 (137) – Has flattered to deceive too many times for my liking. He ran a decent second behind a smart type at Kempton on Boxing Day but he isn’t one who I would want on my side in this type of race. Everything needs to fall right for him to get his head in front and I’m far more inclined to be with a more progressive type that has actually managed to win over the larger obstacles.

Romain De Senam 10/1 (137) – If we wind the clock back 12 months then he has the outstanding piece of form in the race having finished a close second in the Fred Winter, a race which has worked out very well with Diego Du Charmil, Coo Star Sivola and Missy Tata having progressed nicely and Campeador having threatened to hack up over in Ireland before falling at the last again. If he can translate that level of form to chasing in this race then he is the one to beat. We haven’t seen enough this season to suggest that is likely but I just have a gut feeling that Paul Nicholls will bring him right on the day and the step up in trip could bring about significant improvement given the way he flew up the hill last season. He could be the big danger to Foxtail Hill turning for home if staying within striking distance.

Brother Tedd 14/1 (136) – Looks very well treated on his best hurdles form having been rated 155 at his peak over the smaller obstacles. However, he hasn’t won any of his four chase starts and it has to be a concern that he simply isn’t as good over fences. He also hasn’t won a race for the best part of 18 months and must defy at absence of nearly 100 days.

Squouateur 14/1 (135) – Cannot have this one for love nor money. Five starts over fences and has been beaten on each occasion. Was well fancied for the Martin Pipe last season but ran flat and/or got outpaced. Has a bucket load to prove and hard to justify its position towards the head of the market.

Recommended Bets

2 PTS WIN FOXTAIL HILL @ 8/1 (General) NRNB BOG

1 PT WIN ROMAIN DE SENAM @ 10/1 (General) NRNB BOG

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Although 20 runners will line up here it will be a very compressed handicap with little between top and bottom weight making the assignment more straight forward in terms of picking the winner. For me there are two horses with standout claims above the others. Foxtail Hill was extremely impressive when beating more experienced rivals such as Saphir Du Rheu at Cheltenham last time. He jumps superbly and will be front rank from the start affords the advantages of not needing luck in running and avoiding any mistakes from his fellow novices. From what we have seen it will take a really smart one to peg him back and if he is allowed to dictate the race at his own pace then he is going to take the world of beating. Romain De Senam will likely give him most to think about in the closing stages if he can stay within striking distance. There is nobody better than Paul Nicholls to prepare a novice chaser for the festival and his Fred Winter form from last season’s festival looks very decent.

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE PREVIEW AND TIPS

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There’s one week to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and here’s a review of the Ultima Handicap Chase on Day 1.

LIKELY CONTENDERS

Otago Trail 25/1 (156 likely top weight) – Big player if the ground came up soft or heavy. Chased home Bristol De Mai at Haydock and had already beaten him at Newcastle in the Rehearsal Chase where Definitely Red was back in third. Readily won at Sandown last time. Stays really well and high class animal with cut in the ground. Races prominently as well so won’t need as much luck in running. Ultima only entry.

Saphir Du Rheu 14/1 (156 also) – Another big player. Not as ground dependent as Otago Trail hence the shorter price and always runs a solid race at Cheltenham. Was staying on powerfully over slightly shorter trip at the track last time when giving over a stone and a half to the winner. Bolted up next time when long odds on. He stays very well and if he can stay in contention turning for home would have a big chance.

Un Temps Pour Tout 16/1 (155) – 7lbs higher than when winning the race last season but every chance he can be very competitive again. Himself and Holywel had far too much class for them and were front rank from the start and drew clear of the rest to fight out the finish. Big chance again as clearly this has been the target since the disappointment in the Hennessy. This is definitely the best race for him as he has a turn of foot at the end of his races in this company.

Noble Endeavour 9/1 (154) – Another massive player. Put him up as the bet of Christmas at 12/1 for the Paddy Power. He duly bolted in with an extremely well handicapped horse in The Crafty Butcher home in second. He is up 11lbs for that and Phil Smith has done him a favour in not increasing his mark as he has done with so many of the irish runner. This is his only entry too and a strongly run race would suit him down to the ground. He has a massive chance.

Belami Des Pictons 16/1 (153) – High class prospect for Venetia Williams. If you take the view that he needed the run on his seasonal reappearance at Fontwell and put a line through that then he arrives here having wn his last 6 starts over hurdles and fences. He jumps incredibly well for a novice no doubt due to his early development in France. He has a 5lb penalty for his effortless win at Leicester meaning he effectively runs off 153. He is another that will have a stronger chance the softer the ground gets but as the ground will definitely be good to soft at very best it isn’t a concern. He has a huge chance but I look him against horses with more proven class such as Un Temps, Holywell and Noble Endeavour and wonder if their proven class an experience might see them repel him at the weights.

The Young Master 20/1 (150) – Had clearly been laid out for the race last season after finishing down the field in the Cleeve Hurdle en route to the festival as his stablemate the Druids Nephew had done the previous year before hacking up in the race. He performed creditably in third but didn’t have the tactical speed of Holywell and Un Temps at the business end of the race. I think we can expect a very similar performance again this season and its hard to see him reversing form with those two even on marginally better terms.

Holywell 14/1 (148) – Finished a very creditable second in the race last year when chasing home Un Temps Pour Tout when the two showed their class to pull clear having race prominently. He takes his chance from a mark of 148 which is 5lbs lower than last year. He also has a 12lbs pull with the winner. With that in mind he has an incredible chance if Jonjo O’Neill can bring him back to somewhere near his best. He has shown absolutely nothing so far this season but he is a spring horse and never shows anything in the early part of the year. Ideally he wants better ground but as long as we get good to soft on day one as we did last year then he clearly handles it fine. There is nobody better then Jonjo for getting one ready for the big day and if he turns up in the same mood as last year he is clearly the one to beat on these terms. It was less than two years ago that he thumped Don Cossack at Aintree in a grade one and now he is running in a handicap with a light weight. We have to put our faith in Jonjo here to have him right on the day. If he is back to his best then he is simply a handicap blot.

Our Kaempfer 14/1 (148) – Clearly has a decent enough chance with a light weight and has been put away for the race since winning impressively at Kempton in January. He was put up 10lbs for that win meaning he also runs from a mark of 148, the same as Holywell. Given what they have achieved respectively over fences you would have to be with Holywell. Our Kaempfer has also done most of his winning on right handed tracks and was beaten in the Pertemps last year when again having a nice weight and being strongly fancied. He should go well but I think there are a few others with more class which appeal more at the weights.

The Druids Nephew 12/1 (146) – Would be an interesting contender if he creeps in with a low weight. He runs from the same mark as when he won the race a couple of years ago but clearly hasn’t been the same horse since falling when in the lead in the Grand National. I think last years renewal of the race was stronger than the one that he run and although I respect his chance he would have to defy a long absence and return to his best form. Since 2010 horses off a 90day+ break at the Festival have thrown up 16 winners from 432 runners. That isn’t a strike rate which appeals to me.

Ibis Du Rheu 20/1 (146) – Needs 14 to come out which may well happen. He would have a chance if the race became very attritional due to a deterioration in conditions or stupidly strong pace. He was out paced in the Martin Pipe last season when the pace set was very strong and he picked up the pieces in the closing stages. I think he is a nice staying chaser in the making but I don’t see him holding his position through the race and unless the race is run in testing conditions I can’t see him being good enough.

Recommended Bets

2PTS WIN HOLYWELL @ 14/1 (General) BOG NRNB

1PT WIN – UN TEMPS POUR TOUT @ 16/1 (General) BOG NRNB

Weather Watch – Otago Trail @ 25/1 (On the day)

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I defy anybody to watch a re-run of last year’s race and tell me that Holywell and Un Temps Pour Tout will not be involved in the finish again this year. They were front rank from the start and showed their class to pull clear of the field. We have to be with them again at the prices and these are prices worth taking now with the concession of NRNB and BOG given that there are a few priced up towards the head of the market that are highly unlikely to get a run. Singlefarmpayment, Champers On Ice and Mall Dini are very unlikely runners and their removal from the market will see the prices of our selections shorten appreciably. Provided we race on the same ground conditions as on the opening day last year then I expect a very similar result and on 12lbs better terms Holywell can reverse the form. If we were to get testing ground then Otago Trail would also have a massive chance but it is probably best to hold fire until closer to the time with that one. Nobel Endeavour has a massive chance and is worth a saver on the day but is priced accordingly.

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FIVE GOLD RINGS

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To get us in the spirit, here are five horses to follow this season over Christmas and beyond.

Thistlecrack

Not a particularly left field selection I know but Thistlecrack looks like he could be one of the most special horses for some time. He has a seemingly bottomless engine as he proved when winning the World Hurdle on the bridle last season and he has taken to fences well despite a couple of high profile errors on his second start which were blown hugely out of proportion by the racing media. Sure he landed on a couple of fences but I can see huge positives in those errors. The fact that he took off so early was a testament to his confidence in the task. The problem was that the pace they were going wasn’t nearly quick enough to support those kinds of leaps. If you asked British long jumper Greg Rutherford to jump over 8 metres with a slow jog as his run up it simply isn’t going to happen. It’s all about speed and momentum and the fact that Thistlecrack was taking off in those positions bodes well for the future because in a top class race with plenty of pace on he is going to clear them with plenty in hand and we will then be calling his jumping outstanding. As a wise man (no Christmas pun intended) once said, the difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little ‘extra’. We are going to see that from Thistlecrack in a proper race such as the Gold Cup – buy Cheltenham tickets – and hopefully before. Although many pundits are mocking his current odds of 7/2 for the Gold Cup, I think we will be scratching our heads come March if we don’t take a bit of it.

Campeador

I’ve had Campeador on my mind since he fell at the last in the Fred Winter last season when I was fortunately clutching a Diego Du Charmil ticket. I think he is one of the best handicapped horses in training. I was hoping that connections were going to lay him out for one of the big handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival  – buy Cheltenham tickets – this season and that he may run down the field at Fairyhouse last Sunday. However, he cruised through the race to take it up before once again tipping up at the last. Whilst his jumping is a concern he has plenty of time to get it right this season and his work will be stepping up now. He is entered to run at Ascot in a handicap hurdle in about ten days time. If he turns up there so soon after unshipping at home then he is going to have the ears punted off  him and hack up provided his jumping holds up. There may be a race over in Ireland for him over the Christmas period too so it will be interesting to see where he goes.

Minella Rocco

Minella Rocco is a high class stayer whose win in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival last season has been comprehensively franked with Hennessy winner Native River, Scottish National winner Vicente and Becher Chase winner Vieux Lion Rouge all behind him that day. He is entered in the Coral Welsh National over Christmas and you would have to think that would be a distinct possibility as connections took that route successfully with Synchronised on his second season over fences. He may have to carry top weight if he went there which would be a slight concern especially if the ground was testing as I’m sure they wouldn’t want to leave their season behind at Chepstow. However, he has all the right attributes for the race and if he runs we have to be with him. Quotes of 40/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup seems very fair to me too when you consider that Native River whom he beat at the Festival last year is half the price.

Noble Endeavour

I’ve been monitoring Noble Endeavour quite closely since he was touched off in the Martin Pipe by Killultagh Vic a couple of seasons ago. He is a very talented horse that I believe has plenty more improvement in him this season. He was slowly getting into the race in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival last season when falling two out in what now looks to be a very good race. He has had two runs this season, his most recent being a decent fifth in a valuable handicap chase at Navan. He travelled stylishly through the race before not finding as much as expected in the closing stages. If we look back at his last two wins though they have both come on his third run of the season and on genuinely soft ground. Perhaps he is just a horse that needs a couple of runs to get fully fit and soft ground to slow some of the other horses down. With a third run of the season likely over the Christmas period he is one to keep firmly on side.

Cause of Causes

I tipped up Cause of Causes for the Kim Muir last season from an early stage, citing it as a clear plot. I expect to see a very similar pattern of runs this season before the handbrake is released at either Cheltenham or Aintree, probably the latter. He has already had two thoroughly underwhelming runs this season, including when pulled up at Navan last time. Call me sceptical but one more disappointing run this side of the New Year will surely see some relent from the handicapper with a revised mark likely to be in the high 140’s. He could easily win another Kim Muir from there if connections wanted to or they may roll the dice and go for the Grand National at Aintree – buy Aintree tickets. Wherever he turns up at the business end of the season we need to be with him and given his likely form figures going into the race, there should be reasonable prices around once more.

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RSA CHASE 2016 PREVIEW AND TIPS

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Last year’s preview of the RSA Chase was done much earlier in the season in order to snap up some obvious value for JPFestival.com members. However, we were ultimately left feeling very sorry for ourselves as the 2pts E/W bet advised on Coneygree at 10/1 was left behind when connections made a late decision to throw their superstar into the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The decision was a good one as Coneygree landed the spoils in game fashion, but it was definitely one that got away as he would surely have routed the RSA field. We have therefore let the dust settle a little longer this season in order to ensure we have active betting slips come the Festival. I have to say that this year’s renewal looks a very easy puzzle to solve and unfortunately the bookmakers appear to have the race priced up accordingly with the two top class horses at the head of the market.

Gordon Elliot’s No More Heroes looks a really exciting prospect having won comfortably on each of his 3 starts over fences this season. He began at Punchestown in October where he cruised clear of his field over 2 and a half miles, jumping superbly and winning with any amount in hand. He then produced a very similar display when landing the Grade One Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse over the same distance, beating Monksland pretty convincingly despite an official winning distance of just two and a half lengths. His final prep race for the RSA came at Leopardstown in another Grade One Novice Chase this time over three miles, scoring very comfortably from Rule The World and Monksland once again.

It is very difficult to pick any holes in his form. Although he didn’t beat much on his debut over fences, his subsequent performances show a high level of ability. He has fairly slammed Monksland on two occasions who was a highly rated hurdler, possibly just below top class and he looks like being a similar prospect over fences. His comfortable victory over Rule The World last time out has also been franked to some extent by Rule The World running a very creditable fifth in the Thyestes Chase from a mark of 148. Given the manner in which No More Heroes has beaten these two horses, it is hard to argue that he is anything other than a 160+ rated chaser at this early stage of his career. On each of his three starts he has shown tremendous jumping ability and most eye-catchingly there has been so much more left in the locker at the end of his races. You could argue that he was an unlucky third in the Albert Bartlett last season with Bryan Cooper having gone for a small gap up the rail and having the door firmly shut on him. He showed good character to come again though and probably would have gone on to win if the winning post had been a little further up the hill. Judged on his performances over the larger obstacles to date he is a worthy favourite and it will take a very smart horse to beat him.

A very smart horse is exactly what we have in behind No More Heroes in the antepost betting in Jonjo O’Neill’s More Of That. He won the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014, beating the likes of Annie Power and Big Bucks to maintain his then unbeaten record in striking fashion. The world appeared to be his oyster at that point before disappointing when beaten favourite on his seasonal re-appearance at Newbury on his next start in the Long Distance Hurdle. Although beaten that day he clearly would not have been fully wound up in November given everything would have been geared towards defence of his World Hurdle crown and the fact that he was subsequently ruled out for the season with injury suggests he may have been feeling something in that race too. Having drawn a line through that performance, we have a World Hurdle winner that is 2 from 2 over fences and most importantly has 4 wins from 4 starts at Cheltenham.

More of That’s performances so far this season have been impressive enough. He beat As De Mee and Dell Arca comfortably at the November meeting before producing a similar display to beat Sametegal in December. His jumping looks pretty sound and he clearly retains the same engine so there is a lot to be positive about. His form so far this season wouldn’t be on a par with No More Heroes but his hurdling form is top class and if he is able to translate that to the larger obstacles then he is clearly the one to beat. He has given every indication so far that he will be able to do that. Although we haven’t seen him since December, connections are clearly bullish about his chances and he will undoubtedly improve for better ground and a step up in trip. He is a proven high class stayer and his absence since his last victory suggests that connections are confident in his level of ability and don’t feel the need to run him unnecessarily on bad ground. More Of That and No More Heroes look to have outstanding credentials for this season’s RSA and should both be strongly backed to suit personal preference (advise to follow).

Ordinarily I like to find a value bet in the RSA at a decent price, usually a slow stamina laden horse that could get involved if they go a stupid pace or if things don’t go to plan for my main bet. However, in this year’s race I’m struggling to find any real value and I’m super confident about one of the above horses winning. It certainly seems very unlikely that neither will run their race as both have high class form and appear to be primed to peak on the day. There are also question marks about which horses will actually run in the race. Blaklion, Black Hercules and Roi Des Francs have all been spoken about as potential runners in the 4-miler whilst Outlander, Pont Alexandre, Bristol De Mai and Zabana would also seem to have more likely alternatives over shorter trips. So in truth the race could cut up quite significantly and that will only lead to a hardening in the prices of the market principals.

Of the remaining contenders, Seeyouatmidnight was an impressive winner at Cheltenham last time when beating Blacklion who has since franked the form at Wetherby. He was a useful hurdler and landed the Rendlesham at Haydock on bottomless ground in 2014. As impressive as he was the last day I can’t see him getting his own way here. You would have to expect the weather to turn around in the next few weeks and in all likelihood we will race on good to soft ground which wouldn’t be testing enough for him to show his best form. Furthermore, making all in an RSA Chase is a difficult if not impossible task. It is a thorough test of stamina and whilst I advised last year that Coneygree had the requisite engine to do just that, I simply don’t think Seeyouatmidnight is anywhere near as good. I’m sure that he will try to set a strong pace but in all likelihood it will just play into the hands of the market principals who will just sit off the pace lobbing along and breeze past him turning for home. For those reasons I hope he does run in the race as he will be the perfect pacemaker and will help to prop up the prices of the top class horses.

Nicky Henderson’s Vyta Du Roc is a very strong stayer and warrants some respect following his win in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last weekend where he beat some useful types. He is a lively outsider judged on his hurdles form last season where he appeared to be crying out for a step up in trip. He was travelling well when falling at the last in the Neptune and would have gone close to winning. This stamina test looks tailor made for him and whilst he wouldn’t appear to have the class of the front two he is certainly worth keeping on side. There is literally nothing more in the race that would interest me and so I won’t waste your time discussing the other contenders. Instead, let’s get down to business. At the current prices, my preference is for More Of That who could be a Gold Cup Winner in waiting. He hasn’t achieved as much as No More Heroes over fences to date but given his high class hurdles form and the expected improvement to come I make him the leading contender and there seems more value in his current price. For that reason I will be having ‘More Of That’ if you’ll pardon the pun and backing his only two creditable challengers to break me even. My apologies for the staking plan which may seem a little obscure but is designed to maximise profit on More Of That and break even on the other two. For those wanting to keep it simple I wouldn’t put anyone off a 5pts e/w bet on More of That at 4/1. It really surprises me that punters are chomping at the bit to load up on Annie Power for the Champion Hurdle at 2/1 and shorter when her World Hurdle conqueror has a much easier task here, less question to answer and is more than twice the price.

Advised Bets

6.74pts Win – MORE OF THAT @ 4/1 (Bet365) = 33.7pts return (23.7pts profit)

2.67pts Win – NO MORE HEROES @ 11/4 (General) = 10pts return (break-even)

0.59pts Win – VYTA DU ROC @ 16/1 (General) = 10pts return (break-even)

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP 2016 PREVIEW

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The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup is the jewel in the crown of the National Hunt season. Run over 3miles 2 furlongs and 70 yards it is the ultimate staying test and in this year’s renewal it may well be those last 70 yards that decide the winner as it would appear to be a red hot renewal. Who will follow in the footsteps of the greats that have landed this prestigious prize such as Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate, to name but a few of the more recent champions. Let’s have a look at the contenders and see if we can unravel the puzzle. The current market leader is Gordon Elliot’s Don Cossack who is a multiple Grade One winner and has won 11 of his 18 starts over fences including the Melling Chase and Punchestown Gold Cup along with many other of the top prizes in Ireland. He had been impressive on his first two starts this season in Ireland before falling at the last in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day when he appeared to have the measure of eventual winner Cue Card. There is some debate as to whether he would have won the race but I’m inclined to think he would have gone very close given that he appeared to have the beating of Cue Card at the time he departed. The important thing is that he would have gone very close, despite things not really going his way throughout the race. Don Cossack appeared to find the track a little sharp for his liking and was also shuffled back at a key point in the race so it’s with great credit that he was able to get back into the race at the business end. That performance despite the fall confirmed to everyone that he is a top class staying chaser and a worthy favourite for this race. He has been to Cheltenham twice before and disappointed, firstly when falling when travelling OK in the RSA Chase and then when beaten for speed in the Ryanair behind Uxizandre last year. We know that he is a very good horse and he is sure to run a solid race, but for some reason I remain unconvinced that he will win. Current second favourite is Willie Mullins superstar Vautour who arrives here after being beaten in a photo finish in the King George. He has two previous victories at the Cheltenham Festival in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and last year’s JLT Chase which is a huge positive. He would appear to be a much better horse going left handed an indeed a lot has been made of his tendency to jump out to the left, particularly at Ascot prior to the King George. It was therefore very striking that he went so close in the King George and he looked certain to win going to the last before being reeled in late on. That has brought about some question marks regarding his stamina and it is something I would definitely be concerned about if there was cut in the ground come Gold Cup Day. For whatever reason Vautour reminds me of Kauto Star whose best efforts in the Gold Cup came when he was able to track the pace and utilise his turn of foot, something which is very hard to achieve in a strongly run race with any cut in the ground, for instance when Kauto was beaten by Denman. There is a big difference between staying 3 miles around the likes of Kempton and staying the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip and if either scenario of a strongly run race or soft ground occurs (and both are likely) then I don’t see Vautour having the reserves of stamina at this stage of his career to deal with that. Willie Mullins has a strong hand in this year’s Gold Cup and Djakadam also has leading claims in this year’s renewal. He finished strongly in last year’s race to finish second to Coneygree but was never really able to land a blow. That was by far his best run to date and he remains open to significant improvement. He returned at Punchestown to win the John Durkan in good style on heavy ground in December before falling at Cheltenham in his prep race for the Gold Cup in the Betbright Chase. He is very highly regarded and clearly has some sort of a chance judged on last season’s effort but the level of his form simply doesn’t stack up against the likes of Don Cossack. Djakadam has just 4 wins from 9 starts over fences and his best two performances came in the Thyestes (handicap chase) and the John Durkan where he didn’t beat any world beaters. Both of those races were on heavy ground and he has fallen on two of his 3 starts at Cheltenham. Backers of Djakadam are taking a leap of faith that he will show the vast improvement needed to win this race and at his current odds he is priced as if that is a certainty. There also cannot have been many previous Cheltenham Gold Cup winners that had fallen on their most recent start and for me there are just too many question marks regarding Djakadam to be backing him at his current price against such a high quality field. Willie Mullins number one contender for this year’s crown in my opinion is Don Poli. He is quite simply a street fighter, which is exactly what we need. Last year’s RSA Chase winner is 5 from 6 over fences and has started his season well with victories at Aintree and in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. Some critics highlight that he was not particularly impressive on either occasion but neither race was ever likely to be run to suit and like all great Champions he found a way to win. I am almost certain that Don Poli is just bone idle and only just does enough. At the end of the day he had the speed to win a Martin Pipe so I don’t think he is devoid of pace, but he is certainly a thorough stayer. Importantly, he seems to love the Cheltenham Hill, having bounded up it twice to victory. The hill really brings his stamina into play in much the same way as it did for Ingles Drever. It may be a little controversial but Don Poli is my idea of the most likely winner here as he looks sure to be involved regardless of how the race is run. He is a fantastic jumper, has been here and done it at the festival twice, doesn’t have many miles on the clock and appears to have bottomless stamina; he ticks all the right boxes. The only thing that puts me off backing him at his current price is the strong likelihood that he will be a bigger price in running on the day as he may get a little outpaced at some stage, but if he is within 10 lengths turning for home I think he’ll win. For that reason I recommend potentially topping up on him with an in-running bet on the day. Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card is another who could quite easily be involved at the finish having showed massively improved form this season in winning the Charlie Hall, Betfair Chase and King George. That is clearly the best form of the season but I am more than a little concerned about this test of stamina for Cue Card, particularly given that those performances must surely have left their mark, despite having been given plenty of time to recover. He has been a revelation since undergoing surgery for a trapped Epiglottis but in all of his runs to date I have never seen signs of the abundant stamina required for this test. It is also quite possible that he has peaked too soon this season. It is extremely difficult to keep bringing horses back to their best and even if he were to run to the same level as he did in the King George that might still not be enough in this company. I would love him to win but I’m not convinced there is going to be enough left in the tank to climb the hill in front. Alan King’s Smad Place was an impressive winner of the Hennessy and the Betbright Chase this season, running below par in the King George in between. Positive front running tactics have proven to be the secret with him and we can expect him to be setting the pace throughout. In my opinion he doesn’t have the class to make all in a Gold Cup against this level of opposition and his presence in the race is a massive positive for the likes of Don Poli who will benefit from a strongly run race. Smad Place’s front running tactics may also hinder the chances of Vautour who himself likes to dictate the pace and has unproven stamina. I expect Smad Place to run and jump well for a long way but ultimately give way to stronger stayers brought into the race from off the pace. In a Gold Cup with significant depth there are yet more viable contenders in the form of Road To Riches, Holywell, Carlingford Lough and Many Clouds. Road To Riches was disappointing last time out in the Irish Gold Cup when he should have finished third behind Carlingford Lough but for the fall of Valseur Lido at the last which promoted him to second. His performance in last season’s Gold Cup was very impressive though when he duelled with Coneygree up front before eventually giving way up the hill to finish a close third. If he can return to that form he would have a big shout but his most recent run wasn’t close enough to that form for me to think about backing him and he may not even line up with the Ryanair Chase still a possibility. His recent conqueror Carlingford Lough may not have been given the credit he deserves for his win in the Irish Gold Cup where he proved that he has the stamina for this contest, staying on strongly in the closing stages. However, his overall profile is not one of consistency and his strike rate of 5 wins from 20 starts over fences doesn’t scream Gold Cup Winner. Holywell is an interesting contender at a big price. He ran well enough in the race last season, finishing fourth on ground that would have been much softer than ideal. He doesn’t come to hand until the spring and so his recent runs can be forgiven and offer little reflection of his chances come March. Ultimately, I think he is just below top class and I think he could be ridden for a place before having a crack at the Grand National at Aintree, a race which could really play to his strengths. However, at his current odds of 50/1 he is worth a small bet each way given that he is certain to be held up off a strong pace. At one quarter odds for a place he looks a better value bet than backing some of those at the head of the market to win. Many Clouds likewise will be keen not to have too hard of a race with a defence of his Grand National title around the corner. He too has been campaigned with the spring in mind and a step up on his recent form is expected but I don’t expect him to leave his season behind here when the Grand National is clearly the number one aim. To summarise, this looks like a very strong Gold Cup and one which is certain to be run at a decent pace set by Smad Place and Vautour. They look like setting the race up for Don Poli who can prove his class and bottomless stamina. I intend on backing him in two stages, antepost at his current odds and in-running as they turn for home when he has work to do; then it is down to the horse to take off up the hill and silence the critics! A small each-way bet on Holywell is also recommended at 50/1 to pick off some of the more fancied runners in the closing stages from off the pace. Recommended Bets: 2pts WIN – DON POLI @ 13/2 (888Sport, 6/1 General) 1pt EACH WAY – HOLYWELL @ 50/1 (General) 2pts WIN DON POLI (In running on Betfair turning for home if within 10 lengths) CHECK OUT THE BENEFITS OF JOINING US AS A FREE OR COMMUNITY MEMBER

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